Scotland welcome to join EU, Merkel ally says

[Denzil_DC]

(Reuters) - An independent Scotland would be welcome to join the European Union, a senior German lawmaker and ally of Chancellor Angela Merkel has said after Britain's vote to leave the bloc.

"The EU will still consist of 28 member states, as I expect a new independence referendum in Scotland, which will then be successful," said Gunther Krichbaum, a member of Merkel's conservatives and chairman of the European affairs committee in parliament.

"We should respond quickly to an application for admission from the EU-friendly country," he told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0ZC0QT

Not sure how this plays into what I'd been seeing as Merkel's good cop versus Junckers' bad cop routine towards the UK as a whole in the aftermath of the vote.

The cost and terms of joining are the devil in the detail, of course, but it's a 180-degree switch from the stance during the independence referendum, when we were told such a thing could never happen.

[MADem]

1. Brexit wasn't really on the table during the Independence referendum.

Even now, a few days on, people are still ... reeling.

Most people thought LEAVE wouldn't win.

But now, anything is possible, isn't it!!!

[Denzil_DC]

2. The possibility did come up.

One of Project Fear's major planks during the independence referendum was that Scotland couldn't be a EU member if it left the UK, and it went in hard on that over an extended period, enlisting EU figures to back it up.

This was a relatively mild example:

You can imagine the rueful chuckling up here at the moment.

[MADem]

3. I most certainly can imagine!

We sure are living in interesting times.

I have no clue, really, how this all will shake out. The uncertainty is so distressing.

My orderly side hopes that everyone comes to their senses, that there is a great hue and cry for a Do-Over on the referendum, that the population has a moment of profound remorse and demands that the next PM take office on a PROMISE that he will re-visit the issue and champion another referendum, which will be overwhelmingly REMAIN, the rest of the EU will snark but get over it, and all will be right with the world...but I don't feel confident that this will be the case.

This really gums up the works, doesn't it? I really did think REMAIN would rule the day!

[Ironing Man]

4. what a 'kin mess...

the problem - from my viewpoint - is not so much how we arrive at a point where everyone is happy, but how can we possibly arrive at that point within 3 years...

it seems plain to me that only a UK-EU deal that looks very much like EU membership-lite can meets Scotlands expressed desire/requirement to remain a member of the EU while also remaining a member of the UK. i'm not sure how that can be squared with ending free movement...

it also seems to me unwise for Scotland to leap out of the UK before it has a pretty solid understanding of both the timescale and conditions of its entry (as a sovereign, independant state) into the EU - my concern is that while the Germans want to play nice guy and get a deal that ticks the boxes for everyone involved, the Germans , and indeed the EU structures, don't run the EU. Spain, for example, has repeatedly said that it will make like difficult for secceeding states so as to dissuade the Catalans from leaving Spain and thinking they can slot straight into the EU - obviously the situation is now different from the circumstances of indyref#1, but that would still be a concern.

all it takes is one EU state to demand - for unconnected, entirely domestic reasons - that as a new member of the EU, Scotland use the Euro, or insist on a 'hard external border' between Scotland and England and this 'smooth transition' from UK to EU could go properly tits up.

it is an appalling mess, and i'm tempted to think that the best way to do it is to put off triggering article 50 for at least a year, getting the framework negotiations done (if neccesary outside of the EU structures and as multilateral engagements), and only once we have something that meets the needs (broadly) of all involved we trigger A50, wrap up the odds and sods and then Scotland can hold a referendum on whatever the then agreed best course is.

the worst result, imv, would be the UK rushing out of the EU, Scotland rushing out of the UK, with neither the (r)UK or Scotland having a workable deal with either each other or the EU.

[Denzil_DC]

5. I think the only rational reaction at a UK-wide level

Last edited Sat Jul 2, 2016, 05:27 PM - Edit history (1)

would be to hold a general election where the parties can set out their stalls on whatever side of the In/Out/Shake It All About spectrum they sit, and settle the issue as we normally do with such major decisions - a proper national vote.

If Cameron was anything like a statesman, that's what he'd have announced on the morning after the result. Tim Farron's already said the Lib Dems would run on an In platform.

It might not produce a different result, the timing may not be ideal, given the tumult in at least two of the major parties, but it's the only sensible way forward I can see. Which, of course, means it won't happen.

[Ironing Man]

6. ...

i take a similar view, though as you say it just can't happen - the tories would properly split between in and out, and Labour will continue to split between in and pretend-in.

i supose though we could look at another way - the two big parties don't take a party view but instead they take a 'leave it to the individual MP' view, and UKIP stand in pretty much every constituancy. that way everyone will have a choice between innies and outies, and in most constitiancies it will be with several options on either side.

personally i would like to see an election, as i have reservations about the mandate of a PM who hasn't won a GE given the issues that PM will have to decide in the next 5 years - but in truth i see nothing other than a Tory win with Labour getting hammered by UKIP in its heartlands, by the tories in the south and by the SNP in Scotland.

[Denzil_DC]

7. I'm not at all enthusiastic about it,

but Cameron's boxed us all in so there are no good options. Not even dropping the whole damn fool idea as of now.

An election might well return a parliament with far greater UKIP representation, even a decisive one. It would at least be more honest than the last decade or two, where the other mainstream parties have been doing UKIP's work for them while UKIP's escaped being called to account or expected to deliver anything positive.

[Ironing Man]

8. that Greenland thing...

a movement apears to be emerging - quite possibly with backing from the PM according to his comments to Angus Robertson MP (SNP Leader in the Commons) - to attempt to keep the UK together while allowing those parts of the UK who voted to remain in the EU to do so.

Scottish Labour have floated the idea of a ''Federated UK', and have commissioned Charlie Falconer to do a quick and dirty feasibility study, and perhaps more interestingly, the governments of Gibraltar and Scotland have started joint discussions on trying to design a mechanism for them to stay in the UK and the EU...

it might look like a Denmark solution - the Kingdom of Denmark is a member of the EU, but one of its constituant parts, Greenland, isn't. this might pan out to be that the UK remains a member of the EU, but England and Wales, or even England, and Wales (note the Oxford coma) are not.

quite how this will work when the UK government is also the English government in many areas is perhaps something of a sticking point, but i suppose this stuff isn't beyond the wit of man if there's a will...

[Matilda]

9. And there's also Northern Ireland to consider.

They're in a tricky position as well.

Their position is, if anything, even more difficult, caught as they are between Southern Ireland and England/Wales.

I haven't heard anything about what they're thinking of doing yet.

[Ironing Man]

10. ...

i think NI's problem is that the DUP, the largest party in government, campaigned for an out vote, and don't want a fudge.

the difference with Scotland and Gibraltar is that those governments want in - i'd also quietly suggest that while the EU might want Scotland, i'm not sure it will go far out of its way to aquire NI...

[Denzil_DC]

11. Well, another issue is that,

if I understand it correctly, the Good Friday Agreement relies on EU legislation, and we're again entering unknown areas of case law that aren't going to be easy or quick to unravel.

I don't think anybody, but anybody, wants to see that whole can of worms opened up again, except some forces we thought we'd all but nullified.

[Ironing Man]

12. ...

i think you're correct on all counts there.

[Matilda]

13. So that means

that if NI had to opt out of the EU because of the England vote, the whole Good Friday agreement could be null and void? Would the EU force them to leave?

Forgive my ignorance, but I really don't know the details, except that I see that the "troubles" could begin again.

Possibly the only good thing Blair ever did ...

[Denzil_DC]

14. I think it's up for debate.

Even in legal circles. It's not that the EU would force them to leave, it's to do with the complicated intertwining of European laws with the devolution settlement for Northern Ireland (similar applies to Scotland). Here are a few different takes:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12161332/Could-Brexit-disturb-the-peace-in-Northern-Ireland.html

http://www.centreonconstitutionalchange.ac.uk/blog/british-withdrawal-eu-existential-threat-united-kingdom

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/northern-ireland-fear-brexit-conflict-good-friday-agreement-eu

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36621822

If I don't have any hard-and-fast answers for you, it's evident that neither does the government!

[Ironing Man]

15. difficult, nuanced stuff...

its true that the GFA has some foundations that are based on EU membership which could theoretically cause a great problem, but i think that the saving grace is that none of the parties involved want it to cause a great problem.

there are 'war' parties, but they are both tiny and pretty much unsupported - their activities since the GFA (they've killed people, exploded bombs etc..) show that they can cause a Troubles, but i would suggest that the likelyhood of a return to the Troubles is infitesimal.

there is, as you can see, more than an element of trying to read the tea leaves in this stuff...