Sat Feb 16, 2013, 08:42 PM
peakhillfm (78 posts)
I notice with interest that with the election being called for September that all the 'polls' are coming out with all their "figures"
The latest Galaxy who tell us that more women prefer Mr.Rabbit,BUT they dont tell you that there are as many uncommitted as those who want Mr.Rabbit,then we have News Poll who tell us something totally different,then another poll who tells us something else.
How the hell can 1014 people that are polled be the verdict of 5 million voters on the day,and yet the Media make a Mountain out of a Molehill....its time that newspapers and TV news stations looked elsewhere for their news.
The two worst for this caper is Sky News and also Daily Telegraph
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Replies to this discussion thread
Opinion polls............ (Original post)
Response to peakhillfm (Original post)
Mon Feb 18, 2013, 06:21 AM
Tanelorn (357 posts)
1. Sorry Peakhillfm not going to happen.
The media(or is that medium, I'm trying to allude to the singularity of ownership, I'm not doing a good job)is wants Abbott. Not only poor polls but speculation of a Rudd leadership challenge. The people seem to Love him but all who work for him do not. On the other hand where is the ALP media machine. Look at all the great economic figures and the apparently favourable world opinion of Australia. We are in the midst of a fear campaign that seems unstoppable.I'm starting to lose heart.Abbott will do to the nation what Newman is doing to Queensland. After the election you will find few who will admit to voting for him.Two thoughts occur to me. 1. The government will create a huge positive legislative agenda and therefore create legacy for themselves... but still lose the election. 2. Gillard could blind side everyone and call a snap early election probably after Gonski is bedded down. Abbott won't costed anything properly but no matter the government will still be turned over.Other scenarios......please
Response to peakhillfm (Original post)
Fri Feb 22, 2013, 04:36 AM
Matilda (6,081 posts)
2. A lot of things are playing into the current situation,
and some of them are the government's fault, but not all.
Opinion polls are generally accurate to within three percentage points, but they can change with events, and the results can be skewed somewhat by what day the polls are taken, and also the time, and Newspoll is particularly known for calling at a time when younger voters (who are more likely to vote Labor or Green) are not at home. But there is only so much they can do, and when all polls are showing a similar trend, politicans should be paying attention.
Unfortunately, Julia Gillard is accident-prone - she has very poor political judgment and seems to be unable to view issues from any point of view other than her own. An example is her "captain's pick" of Nova Peris for the Senate. Only an extraordinarily popular leader can get away with that kind of arrogance, and Gillard is one of the most unpopular leaders in our history. However worthy it might be to appoint not just an Aboriginal, but an Aboriginal woman, to the Senate, there are much more tactful ways of handling it than the way she chose. It was done without consulting cabinet, as is often the case with her, and had she consulted, wiser heads might have prevailed. This is only one of many instances.
She is not helped by the fact that the MSM are indeed all pro-Abbott and there are too many people willing to let the media make the judgment calls. Only blogs and social media can give a different picture, but they can't help overcome Gillard's unpopularity. The media's soft-pedalling on the Coalition failings is very destructive for the country, because there's barely one capable person among the lot of them, and they will be a disaster.
The government's poor handling of the minimg tax is one of the biggest strikes against them - Christine Milne was quite right on that score (and I'm no fan of Ms Milne). To put the issue behind her as quickly as possible, Gillard made compromises that she shouldn't have made, and we all know the result. For Wayne Swan to continue talking up the surplus for two years when he must have known it was an impossible target has not only blown an enormous hole in the budget, it makes the government look incompetent. Which, in fact, they have been. Their intentions were good - Gonski, the NDIS as prime examples - but they had to have a tax that worked put in place to pay for it. Now it's likely to be those on the margins who will be hit, because they're powerless. This is not what Labor should be about, and the most savage cuts to welfare are never going to be enough to make up the shortfall. The economic stimulus was Rudd's idea, and Swan took the credit, but his actions since Rudd's knifing have proved that he's not the right man for the job. The best economist Labor has is Craig Emerson, and he should have taken over long ago, but when Swan backed Gillard, he backed Rudd, so he's never been considered.
Tony Abbott should never, ever be considered as a leader of any group, let alone a country. But that a man without policies, who is economically illiterate and would sell his soul for power, is so far ahead simply points to a huge vacuum at the heart of Labor.
And yes, there is Kevin Rudd. What happened to him was unforgiveable in the eyes of many, and the truth is that Gillard hasn't been forgiven. Kevin was supposed to resign from parliament and slip quietly away, but he spoiled their plans. Now Labor has to live with him, alwlays there, and if they weren't so small-minded, they'd use his popularity and give him a meaningful role. But they won't, and they haven't been a good enough government to overcome the fallout from that.
Our best hope is that the Greens will continue to hold the balance of power in the Senate and will be able to stymie Abbott's most lunatic plans. If he then tries to call a double dissolution, we can only hope that by then the country will have woken up to him and will refuse to give him absolute power.