WI Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)

[midnight]

"This is where it gets interesting. Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning voter percentages are implausible. In the ’Voted in 2012? crosstab, we see that 50% of 2014 voters were returning Walker voters from 2012. But only 35% of 2014 voters were returning Barrett voters. Recall that Walker won the (bogus) recorded vote in 2012 by 7%. Barrett won the True Vote by 5-7%. So how could there be a 15% excess of returning Walker voters over returning Barrett voters in the 2014 electorate? This is the standard ‘tell’: the returning voter mix has been adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote.

Say it again. The Wisconsin Exit Poll was forced to match a bogus recorded vote by cutting returning Barrett voters to 35% of 2014 voters, compared to Walker’s 50%. The 15% differential is much higher than the 7% Walker recorded margin (8% discrepancy) and the 6% Barrett True Vote margin ( 21% discrepancy). When the returning voter mix is changed to a feasible Barrett 45%/ Walker 41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

Counties
Now, getting back to Wisconsin 2014, we see that there is a significant 0.31 correlation between Walker’s county votes and voter turnout (it was 0.34 in 2012). This measure indicates that as county turnout increased, so did Walker’s vote share. But it is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The TVM was used in 2012 and prior elections. The data is updated for 2014 using 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. Barrett’s 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall is used in the base case scenario. We assume 1) 93% turnout in 2014 of 2012 living voters, 2) Burke has 92% of returning Barrett voters and 3) 7% of returning Walker voters and 4) 54% of new voters."


http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

[Jackpine Radical]

1. Very interesting.

K&R

This goes some distance toward explaining the discrepancies between the referenda (FOR min. wage increase, FOR controls on electoral spending, etc.) & the Republican "landslide" in WI.