Poll shows Greg Abbott with single-digit lead on Wendy Davis

[TexasTowelie]

Republican gubernatorial candidate Greg Abbott holds a single-digit lead over Democrat Wendy Davis in a late-September poll released Wednesday.

The Texas Lyceum Poll of likely Texas voters showed 49 percent favoring Abbott and 40 percent for Davis.

Davis enjoyed strong support from Hispanic and African American voters, but Abbott held a slight lead, 46 to 44 percent, among women – a demographic the Democratic Party has aggressively targeted this campaign season – and independents.

University of Texas Professor Daron Shaw, who helped conduct the poll, said the single-digit race for governor still leaves Davis in a difficult position.

Read more: http://www.statesman.com/news/news/poll-shows-abbott-with-single-digit-lead-on-davis/nhY6Y/

[muntrv]

1. GOTV, Texas.

[sarin]

2. Doing

what I can to help. There has been a very large GOTV in San Antonio. I hope we make a difference.

[Daemonaquila]

3. Go, Wendyyyyyyyyyyy!

It doesn't have to be a landslide - just beat that jackass Abbott!

[Gothmog]

4. This poll was before last night's debate

Last night's debate should tighten things up still further

I have not seen this much interest in an election since 2008

[bigdarryl]

5. How the fuck (excuse my language) is Abbott ahead among

Woman this scares me because apparently woman voters are harder on female candidates which doesn't bold well in 2016 if Hillary is the candidate.I'm seeing a lot of.polling where democrats this year in different races are either tied or barely ahead of republicans among woman

[mr_liberal]

6. It depends on the woman candidate.

Davis is too liberal for Texas.

[bigdarryl]

9. Well Alex Sink wasn't liberal nether is Allison Grimes

Mcturtle is ahead of Grimes among women

[msongs]

10. all those white racist republican women nt

[3rdwaydem]

7. I wish Wendy Davis the best but, she doesn't have a chance.

[bigdarryl]

8. Never know

A month is a life time in politics remember she was down like 20 points early this year I suspect the polls will tighten even farther as election approaches

[3rdwaydem]

11. Let's keep our fingers crossed

[CoolOnion]

12. I think she does

We've never had a candidate recently with the money to run ads. We've also never had groups like Battleground Texas and Texas Organizing Project working on the gubernatorial election. So she does have a chance if we can get Democrats out to vote.

[CoolOnion]

13. This poll is encouraging, too

Poll: Progressive ‘Occasional Voters’ Show High Interest in 2014 Election Who knows? We might get some new voters to the polls, instead of just the "likely voters" that people are counting in their traditional polling.

[Javaman]

14. this is texas.

the reality is: Wendy needs to win by a good margin.

anything that is close will be thrown, via corruption, to the repukes.

I live here. I have seen just how the repukes control everything.

[sarin]

15. I'm doubtful

I was able to unseat a 12 year incumbent in a very conservative area by only 72 votes. Not that it was a major election like the governor, but still, it can be done.

For reference, my district is usually 80-85% Straight Ticket R's. It was a non-partisan race, but my democratic background did come to light toward the end of the campaign. Also my opponent was backed by some pretty heavy hitters in the Republican party. It's a matter of having a solid message, and getting out to people and working with them and for them. I think I logged about 300 miles in block walking those last few weeks, talk to people, asking their concerns and trying to be a solid candidate.

There is hope.

[Javaman]

18. What seat did you win? and was it a state wide seat? nt

[Sweet Freedom]

16. And only a 6-point gap (43%-37%) among registered voters. /nt

[Rstrstx]

17. The details are an excellent read

For registered voters the lead is smaller, 43-37%. Racially whites and "other" were the only group to favor Abbott 59-27 and 41-37 respectively, while blacks were 10-69 and Hispanics 30-43. Davis was ahead among urban voters 49-30 and surprisingly close among suburban voters (37-42). Rural voters are Abbott's biggest supporters at 58-28. Those numbers look about right.

In the hypothetical generic congressional ballot repubs only had a 1 point lead over dems among registered voters (34-35), and dems were more likely to say they were not likely voters this year versus repubs.

Probably the most surprising thing I saw was Obama had a 48% approval rating among all surveyed and 44% among registered voters, including a 50-47 advantage among indies. He runs above water with every age group except those 65 and older. Males slightly approve while females slightly disapprove. These numbers are only slightly lower than their 2012 poll and go against the meme Fox et al. are pushing about Obama's diving approval ratings.

Some surprises: moral issues hardly made a blip when people were polled about important issues, though looking at the 2012 results I see the same thing. The Economy as an election issue has been pushed down to 3rd place behind Immigration and Border Security. Opinions on those issues fell pretty much where you'd expect them to across various demographics. Those not registered to vote were more liberal in most responses (guess that shouldn't be too much of a surprise and another potential area for dems to improve). Self-identified Protestants comprised 15% of respondents(!), down from 21% in 2012. People under 30 gave Obama a slightly positive approval rating (about +3) then went on to be some of the strongest supporters of more conservative candidates and ideas. I suspect this part of the poll is somewhat off since the raw numbers are low. It also has white voters comprising 45% of respondents, down from 61% in 2012. Self-described Democrats surprisingly outnumbered Republicans in total respondents (39-36) but still trailed in likely voters (40-49). Self-described liberals vs conservatives remain unchanged from 2012: 20-43.

There also seems to be a potential strategy for dems to win an election (if not this year then in the future): divide and conquer. When the tea party is included in the survey support for a generic democratic candidate actually goes up from 35 to 38% while the repubs get 25% and tea party candidates get 14%.

Raw data can be found here: http://www.texaslyceum.org/assets/cms/uploads/files/2014%20Poll%20CrossTabs.pdf