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Abbott 44 Davis 32 (Original Post) PDittie Jun 2014 OP
It looks like Texas isn't interested in the 21st Century. madaboutharry Jun 2014 #1
How Long Are Lettie's Coat Tails? Vogon_Glory Jun 2014 #2
LVDP is trailing Patrick by a PDittie Jun 2014 #4
Battleground Texas is a long term project iandhr Jun 2014 #3
Wendy fired her camp. Manager today... Eleanors38 Jun 2014 #5
State rep. Chris Turner for Karin Johnason PDittie Jun 2014 #6
I encourage DUers to read PDittie's analysis of these poll numbers Gothmog Jun 2014 #7
Thanks man PDittie Jun 2014 #8
Yes, you will Gothmog Jun 2014 #9
There it is, what I've long suspected: Rstrstx Jun 2014 #10
Esta problema grande PDittie Jun 2014 #11
That's a kind of Catch-22 Rstrstx Jun 2014 #12
That is a Texas Tribune poll johncoby2 Jun 2014 #13

Vogon_Glory

(9,109 posts)
2. How Long Are Lettie's Coat Tails?
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 09:54 AM
Jun 2014

As much as I'd like to see Wendy Davis bring twenty years of Republican control of the Texas Governor's Mansion to an end, I worry that she can't win all by herself. I suspect that her best chance to win is by hanging on to Leticia van de Putte's coat-tails.

What are Lettie's chances against the Goebbing Dan?

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
4. LVDP is trailing Patrick by a
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:05 AM
Jun 2014

Last edited Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:50 AM - Edit history (1)

larger margin, 41-26 (23% undecided, remaining 10% to Green, Libertarian, and independents, of which there are four in the LG race. One of the indys was the Democratic nominee in 2006, Maria Luisa Alvarado).

I just wouldn't get too down about these numbers. It's early summer and nobody who isn't a politics junkie is paying attention (thus the high percentage of "no opinion&quot .

Keep working, keep supporting BGTX, keep posting, especially where undecideds might see it, like Facebook.

 

Eleanors38

(18,318 posts)
5. Wendy fired her camp. Manager today...
Thu Jun 12, 2014, 11:20 PM
Jun 2014

Can't link with this crappy unit, but Austin American Statesman reported this today.

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
6. State rep. Chris Turner for Karin Johnason
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 05:04 AM
Jun 2014

Not a big deal, either.

Turner was Davis’ first choice to manage her bid, said someone close to the campaign, but was initially unavailable due to timing with the legislative session. Washington Democrats had been excited about Johanson, who they saw as an experienced hand who lent credibility to the campaign.


(The AAS article Google found was behind their paywall, so here are a couple of other stories that dig a little into the "why" of the switch.)

Johanson took credit for the decision in a farewell email.

“A few weeks ago I suggested to Sen. Davis that she reach out to Rep. Chris Turner to lead the campaign to election day. Chris has managed tough Texas races and as member of the Texas House is respected across the state for his smarts and common sense,” Johanson wrote in an email to the campaign staff, which was forwarded to msnbc by the campaign. “I am proud of what we have all built in this campaign…We have raised more money, have more donors (133,600) and have more volunteers (18,222) than any candidate ever in Texas. We have raised more money than any non-incumbent candidate for Governor in the country. We are organizing voters in every region of the state.”

Though Johanson was a D.C.-based consultant who helped get Tammy Baldwin elected in Wisconsin and spent decades working Democratic politics and with EMILY’s List, Turner is a seasoned Texas consultant and Democratic state representative.


http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/wendy-davis-campaign-manager-karin-johanson-replaced


The real reason she decided to leave, IMHO.


Recently the Davis campaign got into a bit of a spat with the Democratic Governors Association after Johanson criticized the organization for not listing the Texas gubernatorial race as a top targets for Democrats in the 2014 cycle.

"The uninformed opinions of a Washington, DC desk jockey who's never stepped foot in Texas couldn't be less relevant to what's actually happening on the ground," Johanson said.

In response the DGA communications director Danny Kanner said that Texas is a historically difficult state for Democrats to win statewide.

"Governor Shumlin stated the obvious fact that Texas has historically been a tough state for Democrats, but that -- because we have a strong candidate -- we are hopeful about our chances this year," Kanner said.


http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/wendy-davis-campaign-manager-karin-johanson-chris-turner

The DGA isn't going to send millions of dollars to Texas for Wendy -- probably the opposite in fact, as has traditonally been the case -- but they do need not to be dismissive of the Davis campaign... and Johanson shouldn't have kicked them in the shins when they were.

Anyway, tempest in a teapot... seas are calming.

The poll numbers simply reveal the historical baseline for the Republican advantage here: 8 to 10 to 12 to 14 points, depending on the personalities involved. We're coming off an election just a couple of weeks ago where 1% of registered voters cast a ballot in the D primary runoff. Three times as many voted Republican, but that's still not saying much. Obviously this is what BGTX is working hard to change.

Too early for any declarative statements about the races until Texans start paying more attention.

Gothmog

(144,919 posts)
7. I encourage DUers to read PDittie's analysis of these poll numbers
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 03:20 PM
Jun 2014

PDittie's blog as a great analysis of these poll numbers http://brainsandeggs.blogspot.com/2014/06/not-numbers-so-much-as-analysis-of-them.html I feel somewhat less discouraged after reading these numbers.

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
8. Thanks man
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 05:04 PM
Jun 2014

Kuff had a more pointed bone to pick with the numbers (devaluing the TexTrib polling still further).

http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=61115

I was part of the poll this go-round (it's YouGov.com).

I hate to be so mean to Evan and Ross and the gang over there since they are the only ones who poll Texas races. The newspapers and TV stations have completely given it up.

See you in Dallas?

Rstrstx

(1,399 posts)
10. There it is, what I've long suspected:
Fri Jun 13, 2014, 07:18 PM
Jun 2014

To quote from the article

Recently the Davis campaign got into a bit of a spat with the Democratic Governors Association after Johanson criticized the organization for not listing the Texas gubernatorial race as a top targets for Democrats in the 2014 cycle.

"The uninformed opinions of a Washington, DC desk jockey who's never stepped foot in Texas couldn't be less relevant to what's actually happening on the ground," Johanson said.

In response the DGA communications director Danny Kanner said that Texas is a historically difficult state for Democrats to win statewide.

"Governor Shumlin stated the obvious fact that Texas has historically been a tough state for Democrats, but that -- because we have a strong candidate -- we are hopeful about our chances this year," Kanner said.


It's going to be a real uphill battle until we can convince the big wigs this is a winnable race; otherwise it's going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy

PDittie

(8,322 posts)
11. Esta problema grande
Sat Jun 14, 2014, 08:32 AM
Jun 2014

The stagnant polling. Nobody will be convinced, not the DC talking heads, not the Texas chattering class, not the blogs or discussion fora, and not even Texas Democrats will have faith and hope until the polling starts moving in her direction. And wouldn't expect (I could be wrong, of course) to see any more polls taken before the end of August, or perhaps the first couple of weeks of September. It's vacation season, then it's back to school, no one is paying attention. People are more plugged into potential hurricanes -- and even football -- during that time of year than they are elections.

A close race in the fall will start to loosen up some big money. Until then, enjoy your summer. And help BGTX register some voters in your precinct.

Rstrstx

(1,399 posts)
12. That's a kind of Catch-22
Sat Jun 14, 2014, 02:34 PM
Jun 2014

The polls won't move unless something pushes them. Money and ads are what moves the polls but the powers that be say they won't put money in until they see the polls move. I say stick some money in now and see what happens; her momentum needs to start by summer, fall may be too late. Her staff also needs to do a better job of getting her in the media, I can turn on the TV and never see a thing about her.

One thing she can do is turn this into a national race, I get the impression the state media isn't the least bit interested in this race, so throw it onto the cable channels. One thing she could do is start insisting on a series of debates NOW; if Greg thinks he can move into the governor's mansion without ever getting on stage with her it should be a national story as scandalous as Fox thinks Benghazi is.

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