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Tue Nov 20, 2012, 08:53 AM

Daily Kos: North Carolina Results Analysis --Nov 10, 2012

This article was posted in GD but thought I'd post it here in case some have missed this more optimistic Daily Kos analysis of NC results:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1158518/-North-Carolina-Results-Analysis-In-Narrow-Loss-NC-Shows-it-is-a-Legitimately-Purple-Swing-State

Check out the excellent maps in this article:

North Carolina's Continued Democratic Trend

In 2008, President Obama defeated John McCain by 52.87% to, 45.60%, with a margin of 7.27%. So subtracting Obama's 2012 margin of roughly 2.38%, we find that the overall national swing was a 4.89% margin shift to Romney.

But in North Carolina, the swing to Romney was substantially less than that - only 2.49%. Subtracting 2.49% from 4.89%, we find that the trend relative to the national average in North Carolina was 2.4% towards Obama. That means that if there had been no overall national swing to Romney, Obama would have likely improved his margin in North Carolina by about 2.4% (which would have meant a win in NC by 2.7%, up from his .3% win in 2008). In other words, North Carolina showed in 2012 that it is continuing to trend Democratic.

Now, how does that 2.4% Democratic trend break down by county?:




This is the map I like

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Reply Daily Kos: North Carolina Results Analysis --Nov 10, 2012 (Original post)
marions ghost Nov 2012 OP
Hissyspit Nov 2012 #1
marions ghost Nov 2012 #2
marions ghost Nov 2012 #3
Hissyspit Nov 2012 #6
marions ghost Nov 2012 #7
blm Nov 2012 #4
Hissyspit Nov 2012 #5

Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 09:01 AM

1. Glad to see my county Blue (Hoke). Man, it sure looks from that map like all of NC went for Obama.

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Response to Hissyspit (Reply #1)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 09:29 AM

2. Hoke was up for Obama this time

whereas (for example) Wake went slightly down

This map shows the NC trend AS COMPARED TO THE NATIONAL trend (Dems may still have lost the county but are gaining ground even so)--read the whole article to fully understand what's happening.

In other words this has good implications for the future.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #2)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 09:35 AM

3. Conclusion of the analysis:

Democrats in North Carolina are a growing demographic, while Republicans in North Carolina are a declining demographic. And for precisely this reason, Democrats in North Carolina have excellent reason to be optimistic about their long term future.


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Response to marions ghost (Reply #3)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 07:07 PM

6. Unfortunately, I'm really worried about the permanent damage

that can be done in the short-term...

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Response to Hissyspit (Reply #6)

Mon Nov 26, 2012, 12:10 PM

7. It will be a rough ride

--good chance they will over-reach and cause some serious blow back. I hope.

Same thing has happened in VA. Dems in both states need to be more organized and strengthened.

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Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 09:58 AM

4. Dems got more votes for congress, but, extreme gerrymandering gave 9 seats to Repubs with only 4

going to Dems.

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Response to blm (Reply #4)

Tue Nov 20, 2012, 07:06 PM

5. They can never win fairly can they?

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