Daily Kos: North Carolina Results Analysis --Nov 10, 2012

This article was posted in GD but thought I'd post it here in case some have missed this more optimistic Daily Kos analysis of NC results:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/10/1158518/-North-Carolina-Results-Analysis-In-Narrow-Loss-NC-Shows-it-is-a-Legitimately-Purple-Swing-State

Check out the excellent maps in this article:

North Carolina's Continued Democratic Trend

In 2008, President Obama defeated John McCain by 52.87% to, 45.60%, with a margin of 7.27%. So subtracting Obama's 2012 margin of roughly 2.38%, we find that the overall national swing was a 4.89% margin shift to Romney.

But in North Carolina, the swing to Romney was substantially less than that - only 2.49%. Subtracting 2.49% from 4.89%, we find that the trend relative to the national average in North Carolina was 2.4% towards Obama. That means that if there had been no overall national swing to Romney, Obama would have likely improved his margin in North Carolina by about 2.4% (which would have meant a win in NC by 2.7%, up from his .3% win in 2008). In other words, North Carolina showed in 2012 that it is continuing to trend Democratic.

Now, how does that 2.4% Democratic trend break down by county?:




This is the map I like