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Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:17 PM

"NC Early Voting Day 9 (Oct 27) : Yes Virginia, Obama Really Can Win NC"

What do you all think of this analysis:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/27/1150096/-NC-Early-Voting-Day-9-Yes-Virginia-Obama-Really-Can-Win-North-Carolina

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"Implications of our Obama Win Scenario:

The fact that it is possible to sketch out even a remotely plausible scenario in which Obama wins North Carolina (a state which he won by only 14,177 votes in 2008), in which Romney cuts into Obama's 2008 Early Voting margin by 156,546 votes, and in which White Democrats and White Unaffiliateds swing 5% towards Romney, cannot be taken as a good sign for Mitt Romney.

Even under these fairly pessimistic assumptions, Obama can win North Carolina. That is significant - not just for what it says about how North Carolina is changing politically and demographically - but also for what it says about other states, which were not as close in 2008, which are also experiencing rapid demographic change, and in which Obama also has very strong support from minority voters.

I'm thinking about what these means for other states like Virginia, where the Non-Hispanic White Voting Age Population is only 67.2%, which is even lower than in North Carolina (in which the Voting Age Population is 68.4% Non-Hispanic White). Early voting is much more limited in Virginia than in NC, but despite Republican claims, the numbers don't actually look better for the GOP than 2008.

I'm thinking about what these means for other states like Florida, where the Non-Hispanic White Voting Age Population is 58.9%, which is even lower than in Virginia. Democrats are doing much better in vote by mail so far in Florida than in 2008, and early voting in person is starting today, with reports of heavy turnout."

(more, with graphs-- at link)

16 replies, 1809 views

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Reply "NC Early Voting Day 9 (Oct 27) : Yes Virginia, Obama Really Can Win NC" (Original post)
marions ghost Oct 2012 OP
struggle4progress Oct 2012 #1
marions ghost Oct 2012 #3
John2 Oct 2012 #2
marions ghost Oct 2012 #5
marions ghost Oct 2012 #4
John2 Oct 2012 #6
marions ghost Oct 2012 #7
unc70 Nov 2012 #9
marions ghost Nov 2012 #10
unc70 Nov 2012 #11
marions ghost Nov 2012 #12
unc70 Nov 2012 #13
marions ghost Nov 2012 #14
unc70 Nov 2012 #15
flakey_foont Oct 2012 #8
struggle4progress Nov 2012 #16

Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:19 PM

1. Jimmy sez:

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Response to struggle4progress (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:56 PM

3. I hear ya

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Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:55 PM

2. It

 

is the analysis that I have been explaining the actual environment in north Carolina. You will notice the author actually gave a conservative view of how Obama could win North Carolina by giving favorable conditions for Mitt Romney in the voter registration. It is true their early voting is up but their overall registration only reflects about a 35,000 voter increase since 2008 as of today. The theory is they are actually voting in the early voting stage and will have less voters on the actual election day. In other words, they are loading up on the front end and reducing their potential on the back end.

The Democrats on the other hand have registered more new voters which demonstrates that in the overall numbers with African American and Hispanic registration out pacing the overall registration by the hundreds of thousands overall. That is the bottom line of the arctic le. The Democrats will not only win the early voting stage but unlike 2008 they will also win on turnout on election day.

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Response to John2 (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:04 PM

5. I like your optimism...

it's tense being in a 50/50 state...

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Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 11:00 PM

4. Encouraging posts in "comments" on Daily Kos article, such as:

GOTV stories from NC

I have canvassed in Durham and Orange County, NC. When I go to houses, many have already been visited two or three times by volunteers and the election is a week away! In little Hillsborough (northern Orange County as opposed to Southern Orange where Chapel Hill is flooded with Dems), there were 17+ canvassers today. Volunteers have stories about people throwing up their arms and saying to the effect, "'Okay, okay, I'll vote today," just don't come back again." The steely determination of volunteers and staffers is phenomenal this year, versus the glee of 2008 but we had no real belief NC would go blue. Now everyone believes we can truly make a difference and that is getting many Dem volunteers out canvassing and making calls. There is simply no way the Romney camp has this amount of organization and effort.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 12:05 AM

6. I'm

 

from Durham and voted at North Carolina Central University. Durham.Orange County and Mecklenburg are heavily Democratic. Obama was ahead if John McCain by over 300,000 votes in early voting but loss on Election Day by almost the same number which made that election close. I looked at the stats and Obama's GOTV left a lot of votes on the Board from the over all
registration numbers. In 2008 Obama won with a total vote of about 2,142,000 out of 2,880,000 number. A lot of Democrats failed to actually vote on election day probably because they thought it was over or for some other reason decided to stay home. The Republican total was barely over their overall registration numbers, so you can see it is very important for people on the Democratic side to reach their full potential. So people who have voted needs to urge their friends to vote or remind them to. I would like to see the Democrats get their numbers up to at least around 80 percent or even above 2008's total. If they do it can be easier to win. It all depends on that GOTV.

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Response to John2 (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 28, 2012, 09:38 AM

7. So would you say

that Durham, Orange, Wake ---ie the Triangle -- reaches the potential of 80 % or more? And what do you do about the non-voting 20%--seems they should get some attention (ie. between elections?) Seems to me that while you can't get 100%,
we should be able to get at least as much correlation between registrations and actual voting as Repugs--thanks to early voting.

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This page gives the breakdown by county:

http://www.carolinatransparency.com/votetracker/

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As hard as people are working for GOTV in NC, it makes me so mad (& sad) that voters still have to worry about the lack of transparency in the voting system and the possibility that some of our votes will be (let's just say) swallowed by the unreliable, unverified machines. And all the efforts to suppress the vote by more obvious means should not even be possible--all this purging of rolls, ID issues, blatant intimidation, coercion in the workplace--not to mention all the other illegal things they do. Our election system is a mess. WHY do we allow this?

Re registrations--I favor for ALL citizens to be automatically registered and eligible to vote. If you're going to insist on IDs for voting--this would be the next step, seems to me. That ID is PROOF of your official registration and everyone eligible is enrolled. No more of this 2-pronged effort to register people and then GOTV. Just concentrate on getting people to VOTE because they are already registered.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #7)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 06:53 PM

9. Should be paper trails and escrowed software for all election equipment in NC

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 08:34 PM - Edit history (1)

That is a requirement under current NC election law.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #9)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 07:38 PM

10. I'd go one step further

--paper ballots, hand counted at each precinct, to check the opti-scan machines. And defeat manipulation at the central tabulator.

Of course the machines would use software that is NOT installed and maintained by Republican companies without oversight. With a copy of the source code in escrow as you say.

This would be well worth the time and likely prevent theft (and recounts).

It's what we must do, for any real election integrity.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #10)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 08:06 PM

11. I prefer only hand counting

If you only count by hand, you design different style ballots that are easier to count.

BTW I am posting a series of articles on election polling. Next is

You can rig most election polling from one central location, everything needed is already in place.

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Response to unc70 (Reply #11)

Thu Nov 1, 2012, 09:02 PM

12. Dunno

I don't trust hand counts either in big precincts--I think the machine counts could check them and vice versa. The opti-scan machine after all is only a glorified counter. Forget the touchscreen voting machines (except possibly for those who cant vote on paper).

What kind of election polling are you talking about.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #12)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 03:28 PM

13. Can rig most polling from one place - Gallup, Rasmussen, AP, Elon, WP, Pew, ...

Last edited Fri Nov 2, 2012, 05:20 PM - Edit history (1)

The common weak link in most polls is they get their "random sampling" of telephone numbers from the same company. That company was taken over in 2011 by Western WATS, which was notorious in 2007-2008.

If you control the samples that are being used, you can manipulate the poll results. I posted about this, will post details on the how in a day or so using the word "rigging" in the title:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021686160

That thread needs a lot of recs..

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Response to unc70 (Reply #13)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 03:51 PM

14. interesting

probably got lost in the storm aftermath.

OK will look for the follow-up.

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Response to marions ghost (Reply #14)

Fri Nov 2, 2012, 05:31 PM

15. Many DU Bain experts in area hit by Sandy

I think many of our Bain experts and those most experience in financial markets, corporate governance, SEC filings are in the areas hardest hit by Sandy. I waited a couple of days to first post anything.

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Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 11:27 AM

8. Mrs Foont and I have both voted

in Orange County. Hillsborough has had a really good turnout so far, from what I've been told.

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Response to marions ghost (Original post)

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:07 AM

16. gotv

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