Chris Gibson is running away with it in NY 19

[BeyondGeography]

The Eldridge catastrophe comes full-circle

The first thing to happen to Sean Eldridge, the husband of New Republic owner Chris Hughes, after he announced his bid for congress in New York's 19th was a New York Times profile that crystalized why -- despite support from big-name Dems like Nancy Pelosi and Andrew Cuomo -- Eldridge was never going to win.

The profile noted how Eldridge and Hughes, then both in their 20s, had bought a $5 million estate in Garrison so that Eldridge could run for congress in the 18th district, then bought a $2 million home up the river, in the 19th, when that seat seemed unattainable. It noted how he would be running against Republican incumbent Charles Gibson, a popular Iraq War veteran with a Purple Heart. It quoted a local resident, mother of three, who called Eldridge "presumptuous." The National Republican Congressional Committee went wild with it.

Eldridge was pretty much dead in the water since the get-go, but his political fate became certain in September when a poll showed him losing to Gibson by 24 points. The Cook Political Report even moved the 19th from "lean Republican" to "likely Republican."

Now, half a week before Election Day, Eldridge's catastrophe is coming full circle: Another poll is out, from Siena College, showing Gibson with a 23-point lead, and The New York Times has turned its eye back on the race with a Gibson profile headlined, "G.O.P. Representative in Upstate New York Is Strong Among Democrats."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2014/10/the-eldridge-catastrophe-comes-fullcircle-197959.html

There has been real deterioration here. Gibson beat Scott Murphy, who did a great job for the district, by five points in the teabagger wave election of 2010 and Julian Schreibman was competitive until the end in 2012 (he lost by six points I think). Boehner has let Gibson vote against the party a few times to help with his non-Teabagger creds and it has helped. We shouldn't be losing by 20 points but this was a tough assignment for any candidate. The good news is Gibson says he's leaving after eight years max so we'll have chance at this seat soon enough.

[Rhiannon12866]

1. I worked for Scott Murphy in 2009 and 2010

He won the "special" election in 2009 to replace Kirsten Gillibrand when she was appointed senator to replace Hillary Clinton, had most of the same positions that she did, yet won by the smallest margin in Congress, some 395 votes, if I remember. Then in 2010 he was inexplicably defeated badly by Chris Gibson, despite doing a great deal for the district. I managed to sit through their debate which was continually interrupted by a large group of red shirted Gibson supporters, mostly senior citizens who were inexplicably vocal against Scott's vote for health care reform. They also weren't pleased when he equated the repeal of DADT to Truman's desegregation of the military which I thought was a great analogy. I really don't get it.

[BeyondGeography]

2. Murphy visited every corner of the district in his two years

to learn about their economic issues so he could deliver for them, as you surely know. This should have been his seat for as long as he wanted it. It's a classic case of voters screwing themselves. I hope he runs again even though he can forgiven for thinking it was not a great use of his time at the end of the day.

[Rhiannon12866]

3. I know and I thought he was great

Not exactly a liberal, but intelligent, thoughtful and sincere with some terrific ideas. I worked out of the headquarters in Glens Falls and that's where he lives, so he'd sometimes just drop by, often with the little Murphys. I wish he'd run again, but he's already got enough to keep him busy. And he really does stand with Kirsten Gillibrand on most issues and the district loved her, still does.

Meanwhile, we've been redistricted. Since I'm north of Glens Falls, I'm now District 21, represented by Bill Owens (Plattsburgh). Chris Gibson is now running from District 19, so he and Scott Murphy are now in different districts.

[BeyondGeography]

4. I'm in Columbia County and he went to at least one town meeting everywhere

including places like Ancram where practically no one lives. Forgot about the redistricting relative to his residence; we'll have to find someone else, preferably a candidate with roots and resources not just one of the above like Eldridge. But it's looking like 2018 will be our next chance.

[Rhiannon12866]

5. I'd love to see Scott Murphy run again, but he'd take some convincing and who would do that?

I agree that he was good enough that he should have had the seat as long as he wanted it, unlike John Sweeney. I once read an article in the Glens Falls Post Star that said Sweeney could have the seat as long as he wanted it. We finally got rid of him, but now we're stuck with what may turn out to be worse...

I'm not sure where the district lines are now, keep meaning to look it up. When I worked for Scott Murphy, it was confusing enough, ended up talking to folks in counties I'd never visited. I also made GOTV calls for Aaron Woolf who is out of Essex County, but I talked to those in Saratoga County.

[KMOD]

6. Hillary Clinton has started robo-calling for Eldridge

http://blog.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/223732/listen-robohillary-for-sean-eldridge/

It's a sizeable gap to close, get everyone you know in the 19th to vote on Tuesday.