It may be more in the toss-up area...hard to tell.
Jon Ralston (pol writer) noted some oddities in the demographics used in the poll. The Review-Journal is notoriously right-leaning and Ralston's called them out a few times on it--note the quotation marks around "newspaper" in his quote.
“----53 percent male vs. 47 percent female turnout. Really? I don't think so.
----Voter registration in CD3 is almost even, about 500 voters separating Democrats and Republicans among almost 295,000 registered. The breakdown in the poll: 37R, 32D. What?
----The voters surveyed cast ballots this way in the 2010 election: 49 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic. Odd? I think so.
“I didn't think the "newspaper's" polling could get worse from 2010. But it may be slithering under that low bar. Oceguera may well be in a lot of trouble, but if this poll got to the right result, it's accidental.”