Why Arizona Isn’t a Battleground State (and Why It May Be Soon)

While the Republican primaries were still unfolding, the Obama campaign suggested it could compete in Arizona. That looks to have been a bit optimistic: polls show Mitt Romney leading comfortably.

Nonetheless, Arizona simply isn’t that near to the tipping point. In a presidential election that is at all close nationally — and the 2012 race is certainly close — Arizona is not a truly competitive state, yet.

Arizona is a Republican-leaning state largely because Maricopa County is a Republican-leaning county. With about 60 percent of the electorate, Maricopa County’s political preferences tend to carry the day.

While Phoenix itself skews Democratic, most of the vast suburbs do not. “The East Valley — including Scottsdale, Chandler, Gilbert and Mesa — tend to be quite Republican,” Mr. Berman said. The East Valley also has a large Mormon community. (Arizona is the fifth-most Mormon state, but members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints make up just 5 percent of the state over all).