Arctic Sea Ice Has Slight Decline From 2014

[Quixote1818]

Still above the record low in 2012 but the overall trend is a death spiral. Ice free summers in the Arctic are likely by 2030.

By the way, Gore never said the Arctic would be ice free by 2014! He said models point to an ice free Arctic by 2030 but a few models were suggesting it could happen by 2014. Had the trend continued the way it was up until 2012 and instead of rebounding slightly, we could have seen an ice free arctic by 2014. Watch the trend line on the graph, it was dropping like a rock and would have flat lined by now had it kept going down like it had been.

From 1979 to 2015 the average decline has been about 311 KM cubed. This puts us ice free in aprox 18 years.

However, the rate of decline seems to be increasing. From 2002 to 2012 it dropped 7,000 KM cubed in ten years for a rate of decrease of 700 KM cubed per year. If it drops at that rate we will see ice free summers by aprox. 2023. Split the difference for a conservative estimate and you have an ice free arctic in summer by the year 2027.

[yeoman6987]

1. So confusing USA today said it was thickest in 60 years just yesturday

[Quixote1818]

2. They were talking about Antarctica (South Pole) not the Arctic Ocean (N. Pole)

This graph is for Arctic Sea Ice (N. Pole)

Antarctica has gained some volume because of heavy snows at high elevations but there is melting at lower elevations. For the world there is a net decrease and that is why the sea levels are rising.

[yeoman6987]

3. Oh thank you. That makes sense.