Wed Jun 5, 2013, 12:05 PM
Bill USA (4,288 posts)
Gallup identifies "flaws" in 2012 election polls/predictions - "I'm SHOCKED. Shocked, I say!"
WASHINGTON – Pollsters at Gallup said Tuesday they have identified flawed methods that contributed to their incorrect prediction that Mitt Romney would win the 2012 presidential election, but they are still working to determine how to better identify who is likely to vote.
The survey firm undertook a far-reaching review of its operations after its surveys came up short in the election: Gallup's final pre-election estimate showed Romney with 49% support to Obama's 48%, with a margin of error of +/-2%. Most polls estimated Obama would win the popular vote by 1 percentage point. Obama won the popular vote by 3.85 points.
In pre-election polling, Gallup consistently showed Romney with a 3-percentage point lead over Obama. When Gallup switched to surveying only "likely voters," Romney's edge increased to 4 percentage points.
Gallup's problems with accurately representing the racial and ethnic distribution of voters were pegged a year ago by Mark Blumenthal, founder of Pollster.com, writing in The Huffington Post. The methodological problems are specific to Gallup, but the challenge of correctly identifying likely voters is relevant to all pollsters, Blumenthal says
... well, for 50 years everybody has known Gallup has been disgorging biased polls to help 'drive' voter turnout among the air-head Republican suckers who like to vote with the 'flow' and elect demagogues who deliver consistently incompentent government. All sentient people have known for years, that you have to apply a Gallup GOP Bias Adjustment of 2% to 3% to Gallup's predicted numbers for the GOP candidate to get a more accurate and legitimate estimate of any presidential election.. Gallup hasn't been fooling anybody for a very long time.
I'm quite confident in Gallup's ability to come up with new 'flaws' that will allow them to produce similarly biased predictions in the favor of the GOP Zombies (i.e. animated dead persons devoid of a soul) in the future.
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Gallup identifies "flaws" in 2012 election polls/predictions - "I'm SHOCKED. Shocked, I say!" (Original post)
|Bill USA||Jun 2013||OP|
Response to Bill USA (Original post)
Fri Jun 7, 2013, 01:49 PM
WovenGems (776 posts)
With the right creating the bubble and the Rasmusson poll being the bubbles best poll Gallup became moot. It just wasn't nutty enough.