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Mon Jan 14, 2013, 04:30 PM

The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Gov't Control!

Link: http://www.theprogressiveprofessor.com/?tag=reapportionment

It is now clear that our political system is facing a long period, probably at least a decade, of split government control on the national level!

The Democratic Party has a long term edge with the electorate, as a result of the two Barack Obama Presidential victories, with the only difference being the loss in 2012 of Indiana and North Carolina.

But with the growing Hispanic and Latino population in Arizona, Texas, and Georgia, the likelihood of those states turning “blue’ from “red” over this decade, is becoming more likely, and with that manifestation, the Electoral College situation will become much more one sided than it is now, and yet still allow for some states to wander over to the other side without affecting a Democratic victory for the White House.

Additionally, with the surprise gain in seats by the Democrats in the US Senate, only losing one state, Nebraska, and gaining Maine, Massachusetts, and Indiana in return, and more Republican seats up for reelection in 2014, the likelihood of the Senate staying majority Democratic for the long term, continues to grow.

However, with the gerrymandering of seats by Republican legislatures and Governors in 2010, even though the Democrats won more votes for the US House of Representatives, the Republicans were able to hold on to the majority, although reduced by about eight seats. The Democrats will have trouble gaining 17 seats or more because of the gerrymandering, and even if they do gain a slight edge, could easily lose it two or four years after winning the majority.

So the likelihood of a Democratic President, Democratic Senate, and a Republican House becomes more a normal situation until at least the next reapportionment of seats after the 2020 Census, and the Presidential and Congressional Elections of that year, but with the advantage that 2020 is a Presidential year, while 2010 was not.

So this means the odds of a long range stalemate and gridlock in American politics are clear cut!


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Reply The Reality Of The Next Decade: Split Gov't Control! (Original post)
Jamaal510 Jan 2013 OP
socialindependocrat Jan 2013 #1

Response to Jamaal510 (Original post)

Mon Jan 14, 2013, 05:38 PM

1. I talked to my Brother-in-law about this

He was in the election dept. in Mass. and said they have rules as to how the voting districts should be set up in order to avoid gerrymandering.

Why aren't there federal rules also?

It seems rediculous to allow people to set up voting districts that obviously favor one side or the other.

Where the hell is the ethics committee?

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