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Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:03 PM

As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage (Nate Silver)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/08/as-nation-and-parties-change-republicans-are-at-an-electoral-college-disadvantage/

Two more presidential elections, 2016 and 2020, will be contested under the current Electoral College configuration, which gave Barack Obama a second term on Tuesday. This yearís results suggest that this could put Republicans at a structural disadvantage.

Based on a preliminary analysis of the returns, Mitt Romney may have had to win the national popular vote by three percentage points on Tuesday to be assured of winning the Electoral College. The last Republican to accomplish that was George H.W. Bush, in 1988. In the table below, I have arranged the 50 states and the District of Columbia from the most Democratic to the most Republican, based on their preliminary results from Tuesday. Along the way, I have counted up the number of electoral votes for the Democratic candidate, starting at zero and going up to 538 as he wins progressively more difficult states.

This process resembles how the FiveThirtyEight tipping-point analysis was calculated. In the simulations we ran each day, we accounted for the range of possible outcomes in each state and then saw which states provided Mr. Obama with his easiest route to 270 electoral votes, the minimum winning number. The state that put Mr. Obama over the top to 270 electoral votes was the tipping-point state in that simulation.

Now that the actual returns are in, we donít need the simulations or the forecast model. It turned out, in fact, that although the FiveThirtyEight model had a very strong night over all on Tuesday, it was wrong about the identity of the tipping-point state. Based on the polls, it appeared that Ohio was the state most likely to win Mr. Obama his 270th electoral vote. Instead, it was Colorado that provided him with his win Ė the same state that did so in 2008.

. . . more

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Reply As Nation and Parties Change, Republicans Are at an Electoral College Disadvantage (Nate Silver) (Original post)
swag Nov 2012 OP
drm604 Nov 2012 #1
LeftofObama Nov 2012 #2
malexand Nov 2012 #3
YayArea Nov 2012 #4

Response to swag (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:22 PM

1. K&R

Very interesting.

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Response to swag (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 05:23 PM

2. At this point

anything Nate Silver says is golden!

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Response to swag (Original post)

Thu Nov 8, 2012, 11:26 PM

3. Nate Silver is why we need students in science, tech, engineering, & math (STEM)

While swag's original post on Nate Silver's analysis of future demographics and elections is not directly a call for the great need for more students to enter the STEM fields (science, technology, engineering,and math), we need to all we can to encourage more of our young people to do so.

One of the best programs promoting this is the Siemens Competition in Math, Science & Technology for high school students willing to challenge themselves through science research. Kudos to Tom McCausland and Jeniffer Harper-Taylor of the Siemens Foundation and Diane Tsukamaki of the College Board who administers this outstanding program. Below the 2011 winners visit the NYSE and ring the closing bell:


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Response to swag (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:54 AM

4. Running up the score in the Deep South just isn't going to cut it.

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