Mon Jul 2, 2012, 06:17 PM
Bill USA (2,239 posts)
ObamaCare(s) has already saved those with private insurance billions from 2009-2012
Last edited Mon Jul 2, 2012, 06:30 PM USA/ET - Edit history (4)
Take a look at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services site on the web. They have historical data and projections of medical costs broken down every way you can record it.
The data found on this site show that Private health insurance costs went up over the ten years before Obama was elected annually on average 7.6%. In the four years from 2009-2012 (2012 projected) the annual increase is averageing 2.4% for a reduction of 68% from the average annual increase over the 10 years preceding Obama's election. Just the election of a man who the insurance industry was convinced was serious about doing something about rapidly rising health care costs resulted in reductions in annual increases of Private Insurance Costs! And we haven't begun to see the affects of people getting preventative health care screenings and access to medical care BEFORE health problems become severe enough to require aggressive (and much more expesive) medical interventions.
From the site:
The Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services annually produces projections of health care spending for categories within the National Health Expenditure Accounts, which track health spending by source of funds (for example, private health insurance, Medicare, Medicaid),by type of service (hospital, physician, prescription drugs, etc.), and by sponsor (businesses, households, governments).
click on the link below:
Projected - and historical Health care costs
once there click on "NHE Historical and projections, 1965-2021"
or just click here: access zipped Excel file
click on OPEN when it asks "what do you want to do with this file?"
IT then opens an excel file with Health care expenditure historical data and projections.
Among these data are "Total Private Health Insurance expenditures". These data reveal that in the ten years before Obama was elected private health insurance costs went up on average 7.6% per year. Magically, when confronted with a president who appeared to be very serious about doing something about rapidly increasing health care costs, Private insurance costs showed a marked decrease in the annual increases starting in 2009 at: 2.6%, 2.4%, 1.8% and 2.8% (for 2012 projected)(average = 2.4%). This was a reduction from the average annual increases of the 10 years preceding Obama's election (7.6%) of 5.2% (or a 68% reduction as a percent of the average annual increase for the 10 years before Obama took office: ((7.6% - 2.4%)/7.6%)) (note these numbers are rounded). In dollars this averages about $45 Billion per year off the total expenditures for private health Insurance.
So ObamaCares is ALREADY SAVING THOSE PRIVATELY INSURED.
Looking at the data for Total Health Care costs also shows a reduction (as above) in the annual increases for 2009-2012 (average of 1.7%) compared to the ten years preceding Obama's election (average 7.1% annual increase).
And this is before the much more significant savings to be had when illnesses are caught early because people are getting preventative care screenings!
5 replies, 973 views
ObamaCare(s) has already saved those with private insurance billions from 2009-2012 (Original post)
|Bill USA||Jul 2012||OP|
|The Wielding Truth||Jul 2012||#1|
|Bill USA||Jul 2012||#4|
|Bill USA||Jul 2012||#5|
Response to The Wielding Truth (Reply #1)
Mon Jul 2, 2012, 06:55 PM
Igel (17,557 posts)
2. It's also good to have some causal mechanism backing up causality.
Last edited Mon Jul 2, 2012, 06:58 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)
This is called "post hoc" reasoning.
Just Obama's smile caused health care costs to decline. No legislation. No acts. Just his wonderful presence.
It would seem that his presence also caused investment in health care equipment to decrease. That would seem to be a bad thing.
Perhaps what's to blame for the bad bits is the worst recession in a long time, a recession that pretty much reduced all spending right across the board. But if we blame the recession for reduced spending when it's bad reduced spending, how can we claim Obama's magical presence caused the good reduction in spending? We already have a fairly potent--and causal--mechanism for curtailing spending. Why posit another one that doesn't have a causal tie-in?
(on edit: And not only would that be proposing two causes when one is needed, but it would need a third: Why didn't the recession reduce the "bad" spending? What's so special about it that it required an august presence to reduce spending that a simple lack of money couldn't?)
But let's say we abandon causality. Then there's no need for Obama to actually wield the levers of power. The levers are meaningless, after all. Just knowing that he'll do something, whatever it is, is enough. All that you need to know is that he'll do something. Heck, it was pretty much a done deal that Obama would win even before election day. Now there's all kinds of things we can attribute to Obama October '08 to the present. The worst part of the recession, for instance. Who needs causality when you have correlation?
See, it's really sucky reasoning. The same reasoning that "proves" Obama did such great things for curtailing bad spending nails you in the ass because it also is just as responsible for curtailing good spending and, well, the economy. Correlation points you to things that might, just might, be causal--but then comes the heavy lifting, in which you have to think through causal connections, look at all the different factors that you know are in play and try to sort of which ones are trivial and which are crucial. A good dose of daydreaming and abductive thinking is important here, but if that's all you got ...
Response to Igel (Reply #2)
Mon Jul 2, 2012, 07:41 PM
Bill USA (2,239 posts)
4. the meaning of 'causation' when you are talking about social sciences (e.g. economics) is a tenuous
Last edited Mon Jul 2, 2012, 07:58 PM USA/ET - Edit history (2)
In the social sciences there are those who say the term "causation" doesn't really add anything to the discussion and that all we have is correlation. Those in the 'hard' sciences are somewhat dismissive of social scientists using the word 'cause' in their discussions. Of course, with the advent of quantum mechanics the whole concept of causation has taken on a probabalistic character even in the 'hard' sciences.
With regard to the Health Care sector, I would inform you that for as long as I can remember that sector has been touted as the place to put your money (as an investor) whenever a downturn (recession) is anticipated. This reputation was gained by the Health care sector because it has historically held up rather well in times of economic downturns as people still get sick and have to attend to that condition (whether they like it or not). So, given that it's rather hard to hold out for causation when you see a break in correlation, I might suggest you consider another line of 'reasoning' in your pointing a finger at the Trickle Down Recession as the 'cause' of a decline in the rate of growth of Health Care Costs.
I did not say Obama 'charmed' Health care companies into restricting cost increases. It was quite clear my implication was that since Obama made it clear to everyone he was serious about doing something about Health care costs. It is quite reasonable therefore, to assert that the Health Care companies thought it political (i.e. Based on or motivated by partisan or self-serving objectives) to restrain their previous ardor for increasing their costs.
Response to Bill USA (Original post)
Mon Jul 2, 2012, 07:34 PM
dregstudios (37 posts)
3. Get it Right
Republicans would have us believe Obamacare is bad for America. Is there any doubt that a Romney administration would favor the rich and increase the income gap in our country while leaving millions of our citizens uninsured and unprotected? Mitt is a pariah in Mormon Clothing and will stop at nothing to expand an empire of greed for the rich in this country. Can his sacred Mormon underwear gain him enough donations to buy this election? See for yourself as Mitt dons his tighty-whities sent from the Good Lord Himself at http://dregstudiosart.blogspot.com/2012/05/mitt-romneys-magic-mormon-underwear.html