Ebola outbreak 2014: The terrifying statistics you need to see

[Botany]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by cbayer (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: news.com.au

The World Heath Organisation (WHO) reports 4033 people have died so far, with 8399 probable or suspected cases.
However in reality, this number could be much higher due to under reporting of the disease.

Projections for growth are downright scary. Healthmap modelling shows 8033 cases recorded globally on October 10 could rise to 18,391 within the next four weeks.

The US Centre for Disease Control claims cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days while those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days.

The CDC also estimates Liberia and Sierra Leone could see 1.4 million cases of Ebola within three months when under-reported cases are taken into account.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/ebola-outbreak-2014-the-terrifying-statistics-you-need-to-see/story-fneuzlbd-1227088785863

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I don't know anything about the news source (news.com.au) for this story outside of it is Australian.

[SpankMe]

1. Also, people are dicks.

Initially, the family members of the man who died in Texas were told to stay in their apartment in self isolation for 21 days. They ignored the request and went out shopping. Authorities finally had to post a guard outside their house to keep them there.

People who ignore authorities in the present crisis should be prosecuted.

[uppityperson]

11. Like NBC's Dr Nancy Snyder?

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

26. Yup. Exactly like her. nt

[sinkingfeeling]

2. I still don't get the hysteria here in the USA over Ebola.

More Americans die from obesity related problems each year by 10 fold. Flu kills people too.

[LisaL]

3. It's always starts with one case.

Then it spreads, unless serious efforts are made to contain it.
Death rate is 70 %.
What is there to worry about?

[uppityperson]

12. The current death rate with minimal care available to most who catch it. Not 70%

of all who get it regardless of care. Have you noticed that high death rate among those transfered back to USA for care? I haven't. But with overwhelmed understocked medicine or even gloves places with minimal help beyond being a place to hang out while your body tries to deal with it on its own, or at home with untrained family members?

This statistic tells me a lot about conditions in the 3 W African countries of the outbreak, and tells me more resources are needed to deal with it there.

[Botany]

5. I am not worried about America as much as Africa because the demographics of the disease is scary

Although not having a surgeon general along with the republican cuts to public
health infrastructure we are not as ready for ebola as we should be.

[Bragi]

13. Yes, Africa is indeed at great risk

It's hard to imagine that people in the three infected countries haven't already fled into neighboring countries to try to escape the virus, and won't be doing this in increasing numbers. The stress the virus presents on already-underfunded and underdeveloped health care systems in Africa will be enormous, as will the cost of trying to contain this virus within Africa. Things will get much worse before they get better.

As for the impact in the developed world, the virus will be expensive to manage, and health care workers will continue to be at risk as cases from Africa show up elsewhere. While the risk for health care workers will be substantial, it seems unlikely that the virus will spread much into the general population in developed countries, given the manner in which it is transmitted.

[Botany]

17. very good points

thank you

I am worried about people being killed or hurt trying to go from an "infected country"
to a "safe country" and from there the disease might find a new bunch of victims.

Also somebody might just have the flu or a cold but his or her neighbors might think
that person is sick w/Ebola.

[liberalmuse]

27. Same here.

I worry about the disease continuing to spread, relatively uncontained in the 3 countries in Africa. And now healthcare workers and cleanup crews are either on strike or are threatening to strike. There are not enough facilities and healthcare workers there to combat the spread as it is. I'm so ashamed that it seems no one gives a sh*t about the people in these countries, but they go absolutely nuts when the disease appears in America. I'm hoping one of the allegedly civilized countries in the world will not only come up with a vaccine, but will distribute it to the affected nations in Africa even knowing they won't be making a profit off of sick people this time around. I guess that would be Canada so far. We're too busy spending the public treasury on wars. Jesus.

[Yo_Mama]

7. Well, the current calculated death rate from Ebola in Africa is 70% or so.

If flu killed over 50% of the people who contracted it, we would have far more stringent flu procedures including mandatory vaccination laws.

In Nigeria, Patrick Sawyer (one Ebola case) resulted in 20 new cases and 9 deaths including Sawyer. The Nigerian authorities deployed hundreds, perhaps thousands, of workers to track down all exposures and stop it there. That wasn't hysteria, but public health measures working as designed (they had some pre-existing measures set up for smallpox) and they mobilized an intense new surge of effort.

You have to catch each individual case (a hugely expensive effort) to prevent many other cases. That's what the world is now trying to do.

An article:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/4769ca32-52c4-11e4-a236-00144feab7de.html#axzz3G8G50Xil

[kestrel91316]

28. Obesity doesn't have a mortality rate of up to 70% within a month of diagnosis.

And obesity cases, with that mortality of 70%, are not doubling in number every 3-4 weeks.

You get today's Epidemiology FAIL (TM).

[Drayden]

4. There is no hysteria

Discussing a current event and taking it seriously is not hysteria. Tens of thousands die in car accidents and that doesn't stop people from being concerned about and taking measures to prevent cancer. Most people haven't died from ebola because ebola has never presented such an unprecedented risk before now. Now that it has developed a strong hold in Africa and being this is a global society people are understandably concerned about the possible risk of a global pandemic. That doesn't mean hysteria, it is a warranted concern and one that needs to be addressed. Just because many people haven't died from ebola in the past it doesn't mean it can't happen. There was a life before The Black Plague and smallpox, too.

[sinkingfeeling]

6. Oh, but there is. Maybe not on DU, but they did a poll on my local TV and 94% said

they feared Ebola being out-of-control in the USA. Listen to a few of the things being said on TV to make sure people are scared to death.

Ebola can be controlled through proper procedures, which are greatly lacking in Africa. And they may be lacking here as well. When countries like England and the US and their allies refuse to put money into stopping the disease in Africa, we are endangering more people.

As of now, you're more likely to die from the flu this winter than Ebola.

[Drayden]

9. So if you had to pick one disease to get this month

Which would you choose, flu or ebola? I know what I would take my chances with.

[sinkingfeeling]

10. You don't get to pick. At this point, you'd probably get better care with Ebola than

only the flu.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/

Influenza occurs globally with an annual attack rate estimated at 5%–10% in adults and 20%–30% in children. Illnesses can result in hospitalization and death mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill). Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths.

[Drayden]

16. You are being disingenuous

Only a tiny fraction of those infected by the flu die from it, and of those who do the vast majority are elderly or have or have pre-existing health conditions. Not so with ebola, which carries a mortality rate of 50-90% and strikes indiscriminate of age and health.

It is this kind of bullshit side talk that will make people discount factual information. Just like saying ebola is only as contagious as HIV. Anyone with a few brain cells knows that is untrue. Healthcare workers following simple universal precautions do not contract HIV from their patients. If you want people to believe you don't heap horseshit.

People fear ebola because it is scary and unknown. People submit to invasive cancer screenings in an effort to ward off cancer deaths even though the greater danger is driving to the doctors office and most people won't get breast or colon cancer and many more die from car accidents. Ebola isn't comparable to flu.

[sinkingfeeling]

19. So 500,000 deaths per year from flu is just fine with you.

P.S. I'm sure the WHO believes it's all bull.

[candelista]

20. Non sequitur.

Taking Ebola seriously is not an endorsement of the flu.

[kestrel91316]

29. People like to call recommendations to be aware, be careful, learn all you can, and don't do

anything stupid "panic". Those people are idiots.

[Man from Pickens]

8. Not worried at all

Eminent scholars and controlling authorities alike assure that an outbreak Can't Happen Here.

Also, subprime is contained too.

[uppityperson]

14. Do you know the difference between health care, with its faults, here and in W Africa where

there are minimal protective gear, minimal ivs, minimal medicine, minimal professionally trained health care providers and people hiding from and killing educators who are trying to tell people what ebola is and how to properly deal with it (don't pat and kiss your dead, for instance)?

[Man from Pickens]

22. I am not sure there is quite as much difference as you think

Nigeria seems to have gotten their outbreak under control, whereas we look like Keystone Kops dealing with it.

The CDC had one single Ebola patient and couldn't keep it from being transmitted, despite the repeated assurances that it would be under control.

We may have a perfectly fine system, but we have one hell of a problem getting people to consistently adhere to the system - and this is the result of the "if you can get away with it, anything goes" ethic that our corporate and political leaders have foisted on us. Nobody has respect for rules anymore, since rules are clearly for suckers in Modern America.

But suddenly, a culture of giving the middle finger to the rules is our own worst enemy. What happens when a command-and-control system can't have any faith or reliable assurance that orders from up top get followed by the people at the bottom?

[uppityperson]

24. yes, there are problems here, not denying that. But not much difference?

Is it cultural norm here to kiss and pat infectious dead bodies? Are health educators hidden from in fear, or killed for spreading misinformation because ebola has been sent to kill us all? Do most hospitals here have iv's, medicines to help support sick people? Are the families of those exposed here keeping their sick people at home to care for there? Is there a difference between keeping someone at home or sending them to a hospital for care?

Do you seriously believe Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone's overwhelmed, understaffed, under equipmentized health care system is not so different than what the UDAs is, right now?

They need so much help, resources to deal with this. Our systemneeds to be made better also. But not so different?

[Man from Pickens]

25. There is a difference between trained personnel and experienced personnel

There's a point when a trained but inexperienced person meets the reality of the situation. Sometimes the training isn't adequate, sometimes the person isn't adequate. These result in failures that are less likely with experienced personnel, even those without so much training. You can train a salesperson to sell, but whether he can actually do so to real customers is a test that many fail. You can train a soldier to shoot enemies, but to have him shoot a real person under combat conditions is a whole other story.

The value of a veteran in any field is immense. We have tons of people who know the book but not so many actual veterans, the kind of people who are least likely to make critical errors (e.g. breaching containment) when it matters the most.

The biggest risk of epidemic comes from overconfidence, and it appears to me that leadership is overconfident about their forces which have seen few tests and failed at least one.

If we can't contain a single, high-profile case, how are we going to contain two? Five? A hundred? What happens if infected people believe that their ticket to a cure is to come to the United States?

This is trouble and it needs to be treated like trouble. We have our own cultural norms to battle as well, as well as the world's largest variety of cultures, each with its own norms. Our problem here is quite complex.

My prime particular concern in this case is the apparent lack of redundancy in protocol. Since this is the first time through this for many of those who are involved, two experienced persons should be individually verifying containment. Sending rookies into high-pressure situations without vets to keep them on point is a recipe for failure.

[uppityperson]

31. Either the protocol was not good enough, or an error was made. I like the idea of buddy checking

to make sure all is good both going in and coming out.

And there you find what I see as the big problem, understaffing. Expecting fewer to more with less.

[kestrel91316]

30. We could easily get overwhelmed by the numbers if it got a foothold here.

Because it has become obvious, listening to all the nursing types on DU, that the vast majority of hospitals and their staff are completely unprepared for Ebola, whether you blame Frieden, individual nurses, hospital administrators, or the Flying Spaghetti Monster.

People in the US are just as likely as, if not more likely than, West Africans to fail to cooperate with contact tracers, disobey isolation advice, or expose themselves needlessly due to frank denial. One single case here has shown that.

I wouldn't be so cocky. Hubris among human medical professionals is epidemic, and will do great harm if it continues, where Ebola is concerned.

[candelista]

21. It Can't Happen Here.

[Man from Pickens]

23. win

the ocean is indeed the ultimate solution

[Kelvin Mace]

15. This is a Murdoch outfit

Australia was patient zero for the Fox News disease.

[librechik]

18. yup-but the statistics cited are official and correct

now think about how many caregivers are needed for one patient. Mr Duncan had 75.

[cbayer]

32. Locking - does not fit LBN criteria

This is an analysis and was posted more than 12 hours after it's initial publication.

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