PPP National Polls: Santorum 38, Romney 23, Gingrich 17, Paul 13; minus Newt 50-28

[BrentWil]

Very interesting:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/santorum-surges-into-the-lead.html

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul.

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney

.

The really interesting thing is if you take Newt out of the Race.

The best thing Romney might have going for him right now is Gingrich's continued presence in the race. If Gingrich dropped out 58% of his supporters say they would move to Santorum, while 22% would go to Romney and 17% to Paul. Santorum gets to 50% in the Newt free field to 28% for Romney and 15% for Paul.

The GOP has Santorum fever and the Santorum surge continues.

[grattsl]

1. Santorum comes from behind.

How very frothy.

[rfranklin]

2. Santorum is so cheeky...

sorry, I just can't help making dirty cracks!

[underpants]

22. LOL first post gets me

[HowHeThinks]

53. DUZY worthy!

Well played, grattsl, well played.

[DCBob]

3. Wow, thats amazing.

I never would have predicted this. However it remains to be seen if these numbers hold up.

[BrentWil]

6. That is the key thing..

Romeny does have a lot of money and Santorum name will be attacked in the next few weeks.

Should be fun to watch

[DCBob]

8. He wont be as easy to attack.. not alot of skeletons in the closet afaik.

His main weakness is that he is too conservative to win against President Obama... but I think most GOP primary voters wont buy that argument.

[BrentWil]

10. I agree..

Santorum is WAY to conservative to win in the general. Moreover, I am not sure Romney can win anymore. As this drags on, it becomes harder for him to change into the moderate electable Republican. His negativity number are already high.

[DCBob]

12. Romney is damaged goods for sure. I think we can beat him easily.

Santorum could begin to connect with the Independents and moderates if he tones down his hard core conservative rants and focuses on the economy. I think Obama still wins but he could be more trouble than Romney.

[BrentWil]

14. I am starting to think that also..

If you have to give Santorum anything, he is a very good natural retail politician who will work hard. I still think his views will make him the weaker candidate, but if he were to tone it down, he might do okay.

He just isn't the type that will tone it down, is the problem.

[Kurmudgeon]

41. That's what they said about Dubya, amongst other things.

I remember awhile back wonder what all this nonsense was about Santorum, then when I realize who it referred to, I also realized that some folks forgot that rule about there's no bad publicity.
All this has done has empowered Santorum in the GOP. Consider VP Santorum campaigning with Jeb Bush for 2016.
Not so funny all of a sudden, is it?

[RickFromMN]

13. I hope the conservatives tell Romney, if his Super PAC attacks Santorum, they will kick Romney out

of the Republican Party or they will bolt from the Republican Party, forming their own party.

With this fiasco maybe the Supreme Court will reconsider it's Citizen's United decision.

[muriel_volestrangler]

16. Santorum had extensive links to dodgy lobbyists as a senator

The Sordid K Street Past of Rick Santorum

Since losing his Pennsylvania Senate seat in 2006, Santorum has used his connections to land a series of highly-paid jobs. Consol Energy, a natural gas company specializing in “hydrofracking” and the fifth-largest donor to his 2006 campaign, paid him $142,000 for consulting work. He also earned $395,000 sitting on the board of Universal Health Services (UHS), a for-profit hospital chain whose CEO made contributions to his Senate campaigns and which stood to benefit from a big hike in Medicare payments Santorum proposed in 2003. (Incidentally, the Department of Justice sued UHS for Medicare and Medicaid fraud during Santorum’s four-year tenure on its board.) Santorum also earned paychecks from a religious advocacy group, a lobbying firm, and a think tank. For pushing legislation benefitting UHS and several other companies, one ethics group named Santorum to its “most corrupt Senators” list.

Santorum has made his post-Senate career doing the sort of quasi-lobbying that helped sink Newt Gingrich’s campaign in Iowa. But in fact, while still in office, he was a central actor in an even more sordid venture: The K Street Project. Started in 1989 by GOP strategist Grover Norquist and brought to prominence by former House majority leader Tom DeLay in 1995, the K Street Project was a highly organized effort to funnel Republican Congressional staffers into jobs at lobbying firms, trade organizations, and corporations, while attempting to block Democrats from those same posts. From 2001 until 2006, Santorum was the Project’s point man for the Senate, while House Majority Whip Roy Blunt manned the House side.

In 2006, the K Street Project was effectively forced to shut down amid public outcry; the following year, an ethics reform law made such outfits illegal. But in its heyday, it helped create an unprecedented revolving door between the White House, Congress and K Street, blurring distinctions between Republican policy and corporate welfare. As Elizabeth Drew put it in a 2005 New York Review of Books piece, “Democratic lobbyists have been pushed out of their jobs as a result; business associations who hire Democrats for prominent positions have been subject to retribution. They are told that they won’t be able to see the people on Capitol Hill they want to see.” Nicholas Confessore, in a groundbreaking 2003 Washington Monthly expose of the Project, detailed the goal bluntly: “First, move the party to K Street. Then move the government there, too.”

At the center of all this was Santorum. According to Confessore, Santorum conducted weekly breakfasts with lobbyists, and occasionally Congressmen and White House staff, during which he attempted to match Republican Hill staffers with K Street job openings. As Confessore put it, “Every week, the lobbyists present pass around a list of the jobs available and discuss whom to support. Santorum's responsibility is to make sure each one is filled by a loyal Republican—a Senator's chief of staff, for instance, or a top White House aide, or another lobbyist whose reliability has been demonstrated.” The group refused to meet with Democrats, and threatened sanctions against lobbies that did.

http://www.tnr.com/article/politics/99323/santorum-corruption-k-street-project

While the more power-hungry Republicans may not see much wrong with all that, it could hurt his Tea Party support - and others will look at it an reconsider his chances in a general election.

[LongTomH]

29. +1000

I'm going to share this link to Facebook!

[customerserviceguy]

25. I guess I did sort of predict it

I know that SC and FL made me question it, but this last week has confirmed my instincts.

As the economy starts to improve, there's less need for the Romney message of "I'm a businessman, and I can get us out of this mess," and more room for Santorum's culture warrior position. Noot makes the same noises, but he's less trusted on these issues, given his personal history.

Some say that having Gingrich stay on in the race is good news for Romney, but I see it differently. As long as he stays in, Noot will be firing with both guns blazing at Romney, pointing out the various flip-flops on social/religious issues. That helps Santorum with the fundies and the tea partiers, especially after these issues have displaced the economy as what's being talked about.

One thing might change that - if there is another pissing contest over the extension of the FICA tax holiday, UC benefits, and the doc fix, then it will take the spotlight away from the culture war issues. We'll see how Rethuglicans in Congress are going to play that, but for now, they seem to be working on a solution. I don't deny that at the last minute, they'll want something unpalatable as the price of the extensions, but they won't totally shut down the extensions over not getting most all of what they want.

[DCBob]

27. I'll give you this one for sure but there is still a long way to go.

This GOP primary campaign has been unbelievable. Who knows what will happen next. I think I am going to quit predicting!

[customerserviceguy]

33. It does spin you around

like a kid at a birthday party getting ready to play "Pin the Tail on the Donkey"!

[Brettongarcia]

26. Lots of the Republican candidates had a moment in the spotlight. But then?

Novelty and unfamiliarity made lots of these guys look good for a second: remember Rick Perry? But then, after a little exposure ... people see the true man or woman.

This season the election started a year early. Though you would've thought that would be a bad thing, finally the electorate might have had a chance to mature for once. To actually spend a little time actually getting to know the candidates, and their record. (And then of course? They begin voting against them

"Every hero becomes a bore at last." After a while the voters really get to actually know the candidates and their actual record. And when they do? They find the candidates were each, all too human, after all.

[center rising]

4. Santorum is a moron, but he does say what he means!!

Unlike either Mittens or Newtie who pander to everyone!!

[DCBob]

9. Hes a straight shooter.. just shooting at the wrong targets.

Cons like him but I dont think he really inspires them much because his style is amateurish and missing the "fire and brimstone" like Gingrinch.

[Robbins]

5. Santorum

If he beats Romney this means Republicans have given up running on economy.They are running on Social Issues.

Besides RAS every poll has Santorum has him doing far worse against Obama.Besides Missouri which Is a dead heat according to
PPP between Obama and Romney I don't see Santorum doing better than Romney.

Santorum would make Obama look Reasonable and Sane. Santurm's voting record In Senate can be used against him.Just like
Mccain's was used to help assault the maverick BS claims.

Remember all those republicans who attacked Gore for not winning his home state?Well Santorum could lose PA to Obama.
In 2006 he lost reelection by 19 points.Noother Republican senator lost by that much that year.

[jmowreader]

47. The Republicans are going to have to run on social issues, not the economy

If you line out Ron Paul like the Republican primary and caucus goers seem to be doing, you're left with two pork-loving former Members of Congress and a corporate raider. The only thing they have left are spurious claims like Santorum's suggestion that Obama is planning to guillotine Christians.

So...the entire Republican campaign is going to be social issues.

[patrice]

7. Hypothesis: Catholic war-on-Iraq/Iran-votes, which had hoped to buy a SCOTUS justice with

Muslim & American blood (a.k.a. political capital), is doubling down, because they **HAVE TO** avoid the truth about themselves and there is a critical mass amongst them that doesn't know the difference between pig-headed obstinence and authentic commitment to Truth.

[DallasNE]

11. Unbelievable

Not that Santorum has surged to a commanding lead. Every Republican except for Rand Paul has had this surge. Trump, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and now Santorum. What is unbelievable is how none of the Republicans seem to pay any attention to what the candidate says before annoiting their latest candidate du jure. Soon we will be seeing sound bites of what Santorum has been saying and probing those views and down his numbers will tumble, too. Romney did have a very bad week on the campaign trail so it is no surprise to see his numbers tumble. Did he recover with his CPAC speech? His delivery was crisp but his message was muddled, so who knows. Carry on clowns. You have me falling down laughing.

[nanabugg]

44. Women alone will defeat Rick, the anti-Trojan. nt

[grantcart]

15. We are witnessing a collapse of Romney

PPP shows he is behind in his home state of Michigan

New poll shows he's a weak third in GA

And now this poll that shows that his negatives have dropped 23 points in a few weeks.

Oh and intrade is selling off Romney, he's down to 27%

[CAPHAVOC]

21. Actually a collapse of the GOP

They will become the modern day Whigs. I hope the Democratic Party is up to the task ahead of it.

[DallasNE]

46. The Headline Coming Out Of Maine Today

Is not that Romney eeked out a narrow 3 point win over Paul. The headline is that Maine continues the streak of low voter turnout. Romney, and Republicans in general, are on oxygen right now and I see nothing on the horizon to turn that around.

[CAPHAVOC]

48. After Romoney

Half the GOP will defect.

[underpants]

23. I wouldn't say that yet. ORGANIZATION is the key

(p)Rick was nowhere with no money a week ago. That means that he doesn't have operations, professional operations, in the coming states. Romney does. Organizations (fueled by money but don't just focus on the money) win nominations and elections.

This poll is so outside every other one I have seen that it appears to be an outlier. We will see but I don't see any way that a guy who lost his last election by 16% suddenly has a shot of winning the general election - and THAT is NOT what the party elite are concerned about, keeping Sen. Brown in Mass is priority numero uno. Without Brown staying (has to have Romney's help) they have no shot of winning the Senate. Truth be told the House is pretty much up for grabs at this point too. They have been adrift since 2006 and the fractured themselves trying to get back together. They are teetering on the edge.

[customerserviceguy]

31. I think organization was key, but perhaps not anymore

It's how Jimmy Carter stunned the entire American political media machine in 1976, but in the era of three 24/7 news networks, the Internet, email, YouTube, and social media, it may not be what it used to be. Ron Paul has bet his entire campaign on organization, yet he doesn't look to win any more than a couple of states, tops. He isn't even hitting third place in most contests so far, and when he does, it will be only because Noot has finally sunk permanently to the bottom.

When you can set up a website to drag in a million dollars a day, and distribute campaign signs, literature, etc., you might not need a traditional organization to get the job done, especially when you have a constituency that's already predisposed to get out the vote, such as fundies and seniors.

[customerserviceguy]

30. Would you say that this decline is "severely" hurting his chances?

One thing I've seen as I've read articles from all sides on this race is that Romney simply looks like someone clumsily trying to speak a foreign language when he attempts to suck up to conservatives. I have a feeling that he was raised with conservative values in his parents' Mormon home, but it's a rich-boy conservatism, not a Joe-Sixpack type. When he tries to get the kids from the wrong side of the tracks to play with him, he knows he's coming off as a bit of a phony, and he says goofy things.

CPAC provided a fresh glimpse of this.

[flying rabbit]

43. Well put

[totodeinhere]

17. Oh would I love to see Rick get nominated. IMO it would result in an historic Obama landslide

and would probably also mean that the Dems would hold the Senate and take the House. That would be a great day.

[Strelnikov_]

18. The Reichpublican Anti-Romney Whac-a-Mole contest continues

Probably time for Shelly to un-suspend her campaign.

[left on green only]

37. Don't forget 'bout Tronald Dump

Making his usual pile over in the corner. There is no telling how his huge ego will add to the mess.....er, I mean intellectual forum known as this election's primary. I hope they all spend $ big time. Just another form of economy/job creation that will help to get Obama re-elected.

[sarcasmo]

19. Jeb will come to the rescue during the convention.

[Lasher]

20. I think that's possible.

But for now I'm enjoying this. Looks like they are slugging it out until the bitter end.

[totodeinhere]

24. I wonder if the voters would accept another Bush given how the last Bush

really screwed everything up so much. I wouldn't think so but then I didn't think they would give the House back to the GOP in 2010 either.

[Robbins]

32. Fox New poll

Obama 50%
Jeb Bush 36%

That should be pointed out when people worry about Jeb Bush coming to rescue.I still believe he won't run till 2016.

[totodeinhere]

35. I do bleieve that Obama would defeat Jeb. But Jeb's numbers would probably

improve somewhat due to a post convention bounce if somehow he got nominated. I think that election would be a lot closer than that poll indicates.

[Ikonoklast]

28. Jeb would get beat like a bass drum.

He is waiting for 2016, no matter what.

[Douglas Carpenter]

34. there is not a shred of evidence that a Jeb candidacy is in the cards for 2012

Nobody in the know is even discussing it.

Intrade is currently rating a 1.1% chance that Jeb will be the nominee..as opposed to a 70.5% chance for Romney - a 17% chance for Santorum - and a 3.1% chance for Newt

[totodeinhere]

36. They give Obama a 57.6% chance of winning reelection.

Of course I'll take that but I hope that his odds can get better than that. The thought that there is a 40% chance that one of those clowns could be our next president is scary.

[left on green only]

39. Watch out for his right jeb, Rocky

I'm thinking he might have a lot of good ideas on how his party can throw an(other) election.

Ed for clarification

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

42. I think Christie Creme is the establish pic for a convention fix

They wanted him to run earlier, but he declined. The 'lib'rul' media is in love with him, so he'd get a pass on a lot of stuff if he were coronated as the nominee.

[nanabugg]

45. He might get a pass from the media, but they can't stop the ads that would tell all. nt

[snooper2]

54. I don't think there are any republicans as stupid as the current crop

willing to join the fray

Maybe Palin, but she has her sure money coming in from the grifter train-

[LynneSin]

38. Santorum is spreading throughout the primaries

[angrychair]

40. Can't be serious

Dick Santorum makes it happen




(yes....thats his name Richard Santorum...the fun and the irony never stops with him)

[ejbr]

49. I am SO looking forward

to Romney's SuperPac's response to this!

[sofa king]

50. My translation:

The Values Party finds itself torn between a narcissist, a sociopath, and a closeted homosexual.

The narcissist needs his bitter enemy the sociopath to stay in the race so that the homosexual cannot gain ground.

The sociopath and the homosexual have a non-aggression pact, but it is unlikely that either will win so long as both stay in the race.

As long as all of them stay in the race, the flow of free money, power, attention, and high living persists to all of them. None of them wish to lose that.

So someone has to die.

[James48]

51. Santorum Cybergate

"Google Santorum Cybergate to see why this one term Senator got kicked to the curb in Pa. Here's a letter written by a Nun during the scandal.

From the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

As a teacher for the Diocese of Pittsburgh for 14 years, one important lesson I learned was that no matter what I said to the child, whatever the parents said superseded my message. What parents say and how they live sends a message stronger than any teacher's voice no matter what the issue.

Sen. Rick Santorum and his wife have taught their children a powerful lesson on civic responsibility by refusing to pay any tuition money to the Penn Hills School District for their children who attended the Pennsylvania Cyber Charter School ("Penn Hills Loses Bid to Charge Santorum," July 12). Released from that payment on a technicality shows that even an upstanding, moral gentleman like Sen. Santorum teaches his children the following lessons:

1) Take advantage of the system whenever you can.

2) The little guy pays while the rich and powerful guy gets away with it.

3) As a Catholic, you have no obligation to pay your share to the common good in spite of Catholic social doctrine.

Finally, I am shocked that our religious leaders who see Sen. Santorum as some sort of faith-and-morals hero have not spoken up on this issue at all.


SISTER LIGUORI ROSSNER
Sisters for Christian Community
Bloomfield

[demgrrrll]

52. This is a very good find.