Fri Feb 1, 2013, 08:33 AM
mahatmakanejeeves (7,799 posts)
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JANUARY 2013
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 157,000 in January, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Retail trade, construction, health care, and wholesale trade added jobs
over the month.
Household Survey Data
The number of unemployed persons, at 12.3 million, was little changed in January. The
unemployment rate was 7.9 percent and has been at or near that level since September 2012.
(See table A-1.) (See the note and tables B and C for information about annual population
adjustments to the household survey estimates.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent), adult
women (7.3 percent), teenagers (23.4 percent), whites (7.0 percent), blacks (13.8 percent),
and Hispanics (9.7 percent) showed little or no change in January. The jobless rate for
Asians was 6.5 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier.
(See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
In January, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was
about unchanged at 4.7 million and accounted for 38.1 percent of the unemployed. (See
Adjustments to Veteran Population Estimates for the Household Survey
Effective with data for January 2013, estimates for veterans in table 5 of this
release incorporate population controls derived from an updated Department of
Veterans Affairs' population model. Other tables in this release are not affected.
In accordance with usual practice, BLS will not revise estimates in table 5 for
December 2012 and earlier months.
Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.
If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:
Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.
ADP, for employment in January 2013:
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in December 2012:
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)
From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs
ADP, for employment in December 2012:
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in November:
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)
ADP, for employment in November:
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep
ADP, for employment in October:
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in September:
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012
The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.
Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
By Geoffrey Rogow
ADP, for employment in September:
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP
BLS, for employment in August:
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)
An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, &quot;disappointing.&quot; It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:
August 2012 Report
ADP, for employment in August:
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012
BLS, for employment in July:
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)
ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.
The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
BLS, for employment in June:
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.
Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks&amp;amp;#8206;
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the &amp;quot;U-6 Number.&amp;quot; That can be found in Table A15. It is &amp;quot;Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.&amp;quot; It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.
Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12
ADP, for employment in June:
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)
BLS, for employment in May:
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)
ADP, for employment in May:
May change in employment +133,000
BLS, for employment in April:
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:
There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom
ADP &amp;amp; TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite
There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.
Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man
One more thing:
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™
Well, enough of that. On with the show.
Monthly Employment Reports
The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.
A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to &amp;quot;Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization.&amp;quot; Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
From the February 10, 2011, &amp;quot;DOL Newsletter&amp;quot;:
6 replies, 2189 views
January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%) (Original post)
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Fri Feb 1, 2013, 08:38 AM
coalition_unwilling (14,180 posts)
1. Ha-ha. "Essentially unchanged" - ha-ha-ha. Actualy, UE rate INCREASED by
0.1% in January (from 7.8 to 7.9%).
Combined with Q4 GDP contraction and December 2012 collapse in consumer confidence, spells trouble ahead.
Way to go, Do-Nothing (Rape-publi-scum) Congress! With you at the helm (of the budget and appropriations process), the economy is headed straight for a ditch.
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Fri Feb 1, 2013, 09:24 AM
JoePhilly (24,060 posts)
3. Even more important were the large UPWARD revisions for Nov and Dec.
Together those revisions were something like 150,000 additional jobs.
It will be interesting to see if anyone notices.
Response to JoePhilly (Reply #3)
Fri Feb 1, 2013, 09:30 AM
maddogesq (1,041 posts)
4. I did, which begs a question for number crunchers:
Why does it take so long for BLS to revise November, which is atunning jump to 247,000? Is there a a chance that what January is showing now will be revised up over 200,000?
In my eyes, I will again say this is good news, but not great news. The markets are happy because they get more cheap money from the Fed. Congress needs to do some Keyne and press the pedal down on this puppy. Screw the debt.
Response to maddogesq (Reply #4)
Fri Feb 1, 2013, 01:10 PM
JoePhilly (24,060 posts)
5. Sorry, didn't mean to suggest you didn't notice ...
I was more referring to the news coverage which, at least this am, seemed to not notice.