Wed Jan 30, 2013, 08:29 AM
mahatmakanejeeves (5,708 posts)
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo
Source: ADP Payroll Services
Roseland, N.J. - January 30, 2013 - Private sector employment increased by 192,000 jobs from December to January, according to the December ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by ADP®, a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which, is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The December 2012 report, which reported job gains of 215,000, was revised downward by 30,000 to 185,000 jobs.
Goods-producing employment rose by 15,000 jobs in January which was primarily driven by an increase in construction jobs of 15,000. Meanwhile, manufacturers shed 3,000 jobs.
Service-providing jobs increased by 177,000. Among the service industries reported by the ADP National Employment Report, professional/business services registered the largest gain with 40,000 jobs added over the month. Trade/transportation/utilities added 33,000 jobs and financial activities added 12,000 jobs.
Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2013/January/NER/NER-January-2013.aspx
Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.
What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.
From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:
Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs
BLS, for employment in December:
December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)
ADP, for employment in December:
U.S. Economy Added 215,000 Private-Sector Jobs in December, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in November:
November payroll employment rises (+146,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)
ADP, for employment in November:
U.S. Economy Added 118,000 Private-Sector Jobs in November, According to ADP National Employment Rep
ADP, for employment in October:
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in September:
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012
The charge was made that September’s BLS numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.
Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head
By Geoffrey Rogow
ADP, for employment in September:
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP
BLS, for employment in August:
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)
An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, &amp;quot;disappointing.&amp;quot; It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:
August 2012 Report
ADP, for employment in August:
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012
BLS, for employment in July:
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)
ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.
The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
BLS, for employment in June:
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.
Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks&amp;amp;amp;#8206;
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the &amp;amp;quot;U-6 Number.&amp;amp;quot; That can be found in Table A15. It is &amp;amp;quot;Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.&amp;amp;quot; It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.
Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12
ADP, for employment in June:
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)
BLS, for employment in May:
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)
ADP, for employment in May:
May change in employment +133,000
BLS, for employment in April:
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:
There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom
ADP &amp;amp;amp; TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite
There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.
Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man
One more thing:
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™
Well, enough of that. On with the show.
Monthly Employment Reports
The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.
A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to &amp;amp;quot;Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization.&amp;amp;quot; Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
From the February 10, 2011, &amp;amp;quot;DOL Newsletter&amp;amp;quot;:
4 replies, 1882 views
U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo (Original post)
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Wed Jan 30, 2013, 09:09 AM
BumRushDaShow (15,441 posts)
1. Sandy reconstruction should hopefully get going this spring
or preferably, as soon as the checks can get cut now that the funding bill has been signed, and that should help.
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Wed Jan 30, 2013, 09:12 AM
coalition_unwilling (14,180 posts)
2. Economy is in a dead-cat bounce, as the recently released Q4 results
from the government's Bureau of Economic Analysis suggest:
Story broke after your OP, but needs to be viewed in tandem with ADP's numbers for January.
Response to coalition_unwilling (Reply #2)
Wed Jan 30, 2013, 10:13 AM
BeyondGeography (24,946 posts)
3. Or with a little clarity post fiscal cliff, things got back on track
You can Debbie Downer it, or Happy Face it. The latter view usually prevails.