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Thu Dec 6, 2012, 07:04 PM

 

2012 warmest year in US? Odds rise to 99.7 percent

Source: NBC News

A warm winter, a record warm spring, a record hot July and a warmer than average autumn combined to make it even more likely that 2012 will go down as the warmest year in the contiguous United States on record, the federal government reported Thursday.

Just how likely?

"For 2012 not to be record warm, December would have to be unprecedented," Jake Crouch, a scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told NBC News. "December temperatures would need to be more than 1 degree F colder than the coldest December on record, which occurred in 1983."

Based on past numbers, he added, "the odds of that occurring are less than 0.3 percent."

Read more: http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/06/15730539-2012-warmest-year-in-us-odds-rise-to-997-percent?lite=

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Reply 2012 warmest year in US? Odds rise to 99.7 percent (Original post)
Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 OP
Ter Dec 2012 #1
Speck Tater Dec 2012 #2
Ter Dec 2012 #6
Welcome_hubby Dec 2012 #5
Ter Dec 2012 #7
azurnoir Dec 2012 #3
NickB79 Dec 2012 #9
Blue_In_AK Dec 2012 #4
AverageJoe90 Dec 2012 #8
underpants Dec 2012 #10

Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 07:07 PM

1. 2011's Summer was much warmer

 

At least in the Tri State area.

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Response to Ter (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 07:25 PM

2. That's weather, not climate.

 

It's always going to be warmer in some places and cooler in others, but it's the global average that matters.

BTW: Which "tri-states" are you talking about? I assumed Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska along HWY 34 by Wray.

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Response to Speck Tater (Reply #2)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 01:12 PM

6. NY/NJ/PA

 

I thought there was only one Tri State Area lol.

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Response to Ter (Reply #1)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 06:17 AM

5. Which tri-state area is that?

 

NY-CT and NJ?

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Reply #5)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 01:12 PM

7. Yea

 

n/t

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 07:36 PM

3. well its anecdotal but

I just a few hours ago went outside and picked a bit more broccoli and a couple of tomatoes out of my garden, the problem it's December 6 and I live in St Paul Minnesota, now if that is not indicative of something 'shifting' I don't know what is.......

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Response to azurnoir (Reply #3)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 04:34 PM

9. I've got rapeseed plants big and green here in Lakeville, MN

I planted them as a green manure to grow a month or two, die, and get tilled into the soil next spring, but they have yet to die. Last year a few of them actually overwintered and resprouted from the roots when the paltry snow melted in March. I've also noticed that carrots and even a few potatoes overwintered and resprouted as well!

This weather is getting nuts, pretty soon I'll be able to grow that palm tree I always wanted

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Thu Dec 6, 2012, 10:36 PM

4. Alaska has been contrarian the past couple of years.

While you all were getting no snow last winter, we got twice as much as normal, breaking a record. Wet and cold summer while Lower 48 had heat and drought. This winter we've only had 6 inches of snow so far, about 1/4 the normal amount, and it's been very cold for a couple of weeks, down around zero.

Not to deny that the globe is warming, just to say that climate and weather are two different things. Nothing has been normal up here for a while.

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Response to Blue_In_AK (Reply #4)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 02:14 PM

8. That much is true.

Hell, here in Texas, where I am now, we've had at least a couple of strange winters now, that I can recall...2010-2011 in particular. We rarely have snow and hardcore chills in early and mid-January let alone at any point in February.

I believe there's a term that most accurately describes this phenomenon....."global weirding".

(Edit: Slight correction here: it was actually Hunter Lovins who coined the term.)

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Response to Welcome_hubby (Original post)

Fri Dec 7, 2012, 07:36 PM

10. Rasmussen has it "trending" towards colder

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