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Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:15 AM

Final results confirm Islamists top Egypt vote

CAIRO Jan 21 (Reuters) - The Muslim Brotherhood's electoral coalition has won 38 percent of seats allocated to party lists for Egypt's parliament, with Islamists of various stripes taking more than two thirds of the assembly, in line with with their own forecasts.

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL6E8CL07B20120121

Limited to first para only for now to avoid breach of copyright.

Edited to add back the BBC link :

Egypt's Islamist parties win elections to parliament

The final results in Egypt's first post-Mubarak parliamentary elections confirm an overwhelming victory for Islamist parties.

The Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) won the largest number of seats under Egypt's complex electoral system.

The hardline Salafist Nour party came second.

The liberal New Wafd and the secular Egyptian Bloc coalition are some way behind them.

>

The overall results mean that Islamist parties control around two-thirds of the seats in the assembly.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16665748



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Reply Final results confirm Islamists top Egypt vote (Original post)
dipsydoodle Jan 2012 OP
oberliner Jan 2012 #1
dipsydoodle Jan 2012 #2
oberliner Jan 2012 #9
dipsydoodle Jan 2012 #16
TigerToMany Jan 2012 #3
dipsydoodle Jan 2012 #4
joshcryer Jan 2012 #25
Zax2me Jan 2012 #5
Zorra Jan 2012 #6
xtraxritical Jan 2012 #7
joshcryer Jan 2012 #26
Tom Rinaldo Jan 2012 #8
Igel Jan 2012 #11
cheapdate Jan 2012 #18
pinto Jan 2012 #19
DeathToTheOil Jan 2012 #10
Snake Alchemist Jan 2012 #12
dipsydoodle Jan 2012 #13
Smilo Jan 2012 #14
DCBob Jan 2012 #15
David__77 Jan 2012 #23
azurnoir Jan 2012 #17
muriel_volestrangler Jan 2012 #20
azurnoir Jan 2012 #21
joshcryer Jan 2012 #27
azurnoir Jan 2012 #33
riderinthestorm Jan 2012 #22
TigerToMany Jan 2012 #24
rayofreason Jan 2012 #29
KamaAina Jan 2012 #28
AverageJoe90 Jan 2012 #31
rayofreason Jan 2012 #34
AverageJoe90 Jan 2012 #36
rayofreason Jan 2012 #38
AverageJoe90 Jan 2012 #30
EFerrari Jan 2012 #35
AverageJoe90 Jan 2012 #37
pampango Jan 2012 #32

Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:24 AM

1. Final results confirm Islamists top Egypt vote

Last edited Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:47 AM - Edit history (1)

Here's an article from Reuters with a link:

(Reuters) - The Muslim Brotherhood's electoral coalition has won 38 percent of seats allocated to party lists for Egypt's parliament, with Islamists of various stripes taking more than two thirds of the assembly, in line with their own forecasts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/21/us-egypt-elections-idUSTRE80K0EM20120121

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Response to oberliner (Reply #1)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:28 AM

2. Ta

You posted while I searched elsewhere.

btw - posting more than .the first para max in a 3 para article goes outside of fair use.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #2)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:47 AM

9. Thanks for the tip

I updated the article to only one paragraph.

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Response to oberliner (Reply #9)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:56 PM

16. I came across that purely by accident a day or so ago.

Fair use has to be in context with article length and sometimes it may even only be safe to post a sentence or two.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 08:56 AM

3. I am seriously starting to think that some people maybe don't deserve democracy.

 

Egypt had the chance to make things right, but they didn't and instead they have created a radical, right-wing regime of their own choosing. They are on their way to a shariah police state.

The frightening thing is that I look at Egypt, and see what might be happening next year if the Tea Party has their way. There would be no more freedom and equality for all peoples, those of African descent would oscillate from every tree in America, and the radical right will be goose-stepping to a dark, hopeless dictatorship ruled by biblical law.

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Response to TigerToMany (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 09:09 AM

4. Whilst it looks a bit dramatic maybe allow for the fact

that the Brotherhood already had a substantial number of seats in other names. Under Mubarak they were not allowed to field candidates in the Bro's name : they stood as independents instead. Now they can stand under their own colours.

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Response to TigerToMany (Reply #3)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:47 PM

25. Democracy has a way of leading to progress. The US was hardly a bastion of freedom...

...when it was instated. It could take several generations for the Middle East to reform, now that it is being allowed to actually practice democracy, as opposed to being forced into dictatorship by foreign countries.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:50 AM

5. Freedom! Yay! yay freedom. yay

 

Oh forget it.
The protests were fun for at least awhile, though....
Hey - Time magazine person of year, right?!
Have that to hold on to.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:55 AM

6. How very sad and awful this is for the people of Egypt.

So disappointing.

Will people, and, the world, ever be released from the iron grip of fear instilled into individual and collective conscoiusness by authoritarian fear based religions?

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Response to Zorra (Reply #6)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:27 AM

7. Same things going to happen here if kid's can't go to college.

 

The less educated always make poor "fundamental" choices. Fuck "fundamental".

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Response to Zorra (Reply #6)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:48 PM

26. It's blowback. Ban Christians from politics here. Wait 50 years.

See what happens if you give them elections again.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:38 AM

8. Best spin possible....

71% did not support hard core Islamists. A lot more will be known when it becomes apparent who the Brotherhood reaches out to more, Salafist or the more secular parties. I'm not laying odds on it, but if the Brotherhood attempts to find middle ground with Liberals that could end up well. A legitimate Islamic government in the Arab world seeking good relations with moderates might be a model that could bring real stability to the region - and governments that can negotiate with Israel on behalf of their own people, not over the heads of them.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:01 PM

11. The Ikhwan is going to have to choose.

As will the liberals.

Are values or power more important to them?

In one scenario, the liberals will have to agree to stuff that they find repressive. The Ikhwan will have to agree to stuff they find immoral. It's likely that each group will find their compromises mere stepping stones to getting more power and control and making sure tha everybody does things their way. In other words, compromises aren't rooted in respect but in maneuvering for authoritarian control. This won't provide stability, and the #1 thing that a society in extreme transition needs is a route to stability that doesn't involve more authoritarianism. Few claim they want authoritarianism, most simply delude themselves.

In a second scenario, the Ikhwan will work with the Salafiy. They will then have to decide whether to risk alienating liberals--those who confused 5% with 99% in a public act of utter innumeracy--or being more conservative than they'd otherwise be at first. The Salafiyoun might moderate slightly in details that they can view as mere tradition (a feat for the righteous), but are unlikely to give *too* much. There may be a few points of contention between them, but it's likely that the Salafiy can find a way to include enough Ikhwan to be content, and the Ikhwan will find an easier accommodation.

Still, they've been trained to want power and control, and without a change in mindset it's going to be a rough road. Look at Russia--in 1992 everybody was happy and assumed that Russians would immediately be like "us"--whatever that means. Others said that it would take generations--the first generation would try to continue the way they had been, the second generation would start real change in society, and the third would finally reach some sort of stable conclusion. My Russian teacher was in the latter camp, and when he talked about "mentality" his much brighter students chuckled. Yet the first generation went between anarchic El'tsyn (better for the country, if truth be told, than Putin) then controlling Putin; the second generation, those we now think are finally as enlightened as us, are beginning to protest. They won't get it right, but probably get it better--yet the instability they bring bears a lot of risk. Gen-3 will probably get it right, if the current risk doesn't yield a lot of socio-political regression.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 01:39 PM

18. I'm not an expert on Egypt's culture or politics.

and I'm not especially interested in becoming one. I have, at best, superficial knowledge and vaguely supported beliefs about Egyptian society, Tahrir Square and the historic protests that toppled Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian political parties, etc.

That said, anytime I've heard any official spokesperson for the Muslim Brotherhood's FJP party in Egypt speak, they sound all of the right notes. For example, the FJP's new assembly speaker-elect Saad al-Katatni told Reuters recently, ""The priorities are meeting the demands of the revolution, including the rights of the injured and those killed in the uprising."

It's not easy, maybe, to imagine that everyone in the world does not automatically and innately share our Western and American thought and the philosophical traditions handed down through the enlightenment and other schools of thought like American pragmatism or utilitarianism.

I certainly hope that this situation, over which I have absolutely no control or influence, works out for the good of the Egyptian people.

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Response to Tom Rinaldo (Reply #8)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 02:46 PM

19. Agree on the possibility of a relatively centrist/moderate coalition.

The two decidedly secular parties garnered 3rd and 4th in the party election. And, iirc, the IB is open to a more moderate coalition style government. At this point the army appears to be the wild card...

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:57 AM

10. Democracy

 

Messy.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:06 PM

12. Canceling my vacation to Egypt. nt

 

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Response to Snake Alchemist (Reply #12)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:33 PM

13. I wouldn't have thought there would be any adverse issues there.

All the Nile cruises run from the UK and the all inclusive beach resorts seem just fine at present. There were rumours the Bro might clamp down on drinking but in the knowledge they need tourists even that is doubtful.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:47 PM

14. In some ways this is very understandable

the Muslim Brotherhood has been working with the poor to ensure that they were taken care of and being kind in a world of a harsh regime would be remembered and rewarded.

There are some reports that the MB has changed and is not as militant as it once was - hopefully those reports are correct.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:48 PM

15. The GOPers will be all over this.

Obama's fault!!

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Response to DCBob (Reply #15)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 09:15 PM

23. He has no responsibility?

I'm not saying it's a bad thing. Egyptian people voted - so what? But the US did interfere in Egypt's affairs and worked to overthrow the previous government.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 01:26 PM

17. It will 'interesting' to see how the 'West' reacts to this

will we isolate them and cut them off as we did Hamas? Or is it easier and less risky to do that to people who are already powerless?
In the event the West decides to do this we will see a new subdividing of the ME

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Response to azurnoir (Reply #17)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 03:08 PM

20. The USA seems fully willing to work with them

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood is already starting to experience the weight of governmental responsibility. The fact that its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party, received almost 45 percent of the votes in the recent parliamentary elections is certainly reason for it to celebrate; this reflects the massive change that Egypt's revolution wrought. As far as the Brotherhood is concerned, the change began last February, when government-sponsored newspapers stopped calling it the "forbidden party," and continued when the party's new building became a pilgrimage site for senior Western officials.

The Brotherhood's relationship with the United States has gradually strengthened: The secret contacts that took place even during the reign of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak have now been replaced by open meetings with representatives of the U.S. administration. The most recent was this week's meeting between Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and Mohamed Morsy, leader of the Freedom and Justice Party. According to Egyptian sources, the meeting was initiated by the U.S. State Department, which is aware that the Muslim Brotherhood will form Egypt's next government and therefore sees no reason to postpone working meetings.
...
There's also a more practical reason why Iran will not be an ally of a Brotherhood-led Egyptian government: Saudi Arabia has promised Egypt $4 billion, and Riyadh will not give money to a government that signs a treaty with Iran.

The same is true of the United States, which will be asked to "recommend" that the International Monetary Fund grant the Egyptian government a $3 billion loan. Last week, the Brotherhood announced that in contrast to its previous position, it no longer objects to requesting a loan from the IMF, as long as all other options are exhausted first and the loan doesn't undermine Egypt's national interests. The other options to which the Brotherhood is referring include raising the price of gas sold to Israel and raising tax collection rates among Egypt's wealthiest citizens.

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/features/neighbors-muslim-brotherhood-discovers-the-u-s-1.407723


Muslim Brotherhood meets U.S. envoy

U.S. Ambassador to Egypt Anne Patterson met in Cairo with Muslim Brotherhood Chairman Mohamed Badie and other senior leaders in the Islamic movement.
...
Patterson, the Muslim Brotherhood statement stated, said Washington was taking a lessons-learned approach in the region as it emerges from the Arab Spring.
...
(President Carter said)
"I was assured by U.S. State Department officials before leaving home that this victory of Islamists would be accepted and that meetings with them had already begun," he said.

Read more: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2012/01/19/Muslim-Brotherhood-meets-US-envoy/UPI-99661326995767/#ixzz1k7pFszQg

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Response to muriel_volestrangler (Reply #20)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 03:54 PM

21. yes but in the US while at present the POTUS sets foreign policy

it is Congress that holds the purse strings and with the teabagger Congress we have right now they could vote to cut Egypt off as it were making anything Obama or the State department says empty, and with this being an election year it is all more possible Congress will do this

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Response to azurnoir (Reply #21)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 10:50 PM

27. They won't cut Egypt off because of Israel.

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Response to joshcryer (Reply #27)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 02:50 PM

33. where did pull that from?

I did not mention Israel in my post, if you pay attention to our Congress they have not been the most supportive of foreign aid in general

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 04:14 PM

22. I worry most about womens, minority and GLBT rights now.

I'm not very hopeful. Only 5 women were elected out of almost 500 seats (Mubarak's quota for women MPs was one of the first things abolished for the election).

What a damn shame.

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Response to riderinthestorm (Reply #22)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 09:42 PM

24. Frightening

 

Women are half of the population. Therefore at least 50% of the seats should be reserved for women (if not more to chair subcommittees on women's issues). And ideally there should be reserved seats for minorities and LGBTQI individuals.

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Response to TigerToMany (Reply #24)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 12:09 AM

29. I want what you are smoking!!!

Reserved seats for "LGBTQI individuals", in EGYPT?????

Talk about having no situational awareness. Israel is the only place in the ME where being openly LGBT is OK and not a death sentence, either de jure or de facto. So maybe it is more productive to worry about finding ways to keep LGBT people from being killed if they are open about it, and to worry about things like proportional representation later.

You have to feel bad for Egypt. They import 1/2 of their food and at the current rate of decline their foreign reserves of cash will be gone in a few months.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/7283/Business/Economy/Decline-in-foreign-currencies-revenues-weighs-on-E.aspx
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/25903/Business/Economy/Egypt-foreign-reserves-post-largest-drop-since-Apr.aspx
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/11/04/egypts-foreign-reserves-even-lower-than-you-think/#axzz1k9wpJ2dH
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/11/16/egypts-pound-has-a-distressed-future/#ixzz1eRPV6DC0

No one is going to fork over 50 billion/yr, 2/3 of which will be stolen by the keptocrats, in order to feed Egyptian peasants. So what is the prognosis? Well, it was increases in wheat prices that triggered the Arab Spring.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jul/17/bread-food-arab-spring

What do you think is going to be going on a few months when things get really bad? Look for lots more reports of attacks on Copts to be sure. The Copts are really the indigenous Egytians, Christians who had been Christian for about 600 years before being conquered by Muslim invaders. Perfect targets for Salafists who will blame kaffirs for all the trouble. After, since there are no Jews to persecute (already driven out), blame the Copts, burn their churches, rape and convert (in that order) their women. I predict that they will be wiped out within a few years. But that won't solve anything, because the kaffirs who are really to blame are untouchable.

In fact it is China that poses an existential threat to the Arab world.

China has more pigs than the rest of the world put together.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/AJ201109209897

And those numbers are increasing since China is becoming rich and pork is the favored meat. So China will buy more and more of the surplus agricultural stuff that we produce for the world market to feed their pigs. While idiotic policies like using corn for ethanol fuel have boosted prices (leading to tortilla riots in Mexico), the inexorable growth of China will push food prices up in the long term, increasingly pricing poorer consumers out of the market. Chinese pigs will eat while Arab peasants starve (in countries without oil).

It is going to get really ugly really soon.

And you are worried about proportional representation for LGBT folks in the Egyptian legislature?


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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sat Jan 21, 2012, 11:49 PM

28. And the Arab Spring gives way to a cold, hard winter

especially for the Coptic Christian minority. Did no one see this coming through all that throw-the-bastards-out euphoria??

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Response to KamaAina (Reply #28)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 01:19 AM

31. The Islamists hijacked the movement.

And frankly, I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps some Intel people may have helped with that......

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #31)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 03:56 PM

34. What nonsense!

It is only the gullible, those who saw in Tahrir Sq. a reflection of themselves as opposed to the reality of Egypt, who believe that somehow the Islamists "highjacked" the election. After all, this is Egypt, where an estimated 97% of females undergo genital mutilation (how progressive of them!), even though the practice was banned in 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Female_genital_mutilation

The fact is that a huge majority of Egyptians are islamic fundamentalists (after all, Sayyid Qutb was an Egyptian), and a big bunch of that group are in fact Salafists - which explains the vote breakdown among the Islamist parties. Anyone who knew anything about Egypt knew perfectly well that this would be the outcome once Mubarak was gone.

And for anyone who thinks that more exposure to the modern world will help shape Egyptian attitudes toward a more progressive bent, the short account of Sayyid Qutb's visit to the US is instructive.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyid_Qutb

It was a key feature in pushing him to found the Muslim Brotherhood.

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Response to rayofreason (Reply #34)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:06 PM

36. I don't doubt there's a lot of assholes out there. But the huge majority? C'mon, man.

Perhaps you have a pessimistic view of humanity. Me, not so much.
That said, Sayyid Qutb was a horrible hypocritical little fascist piece of garbage and frankly, I'm glad he met the hangman at the end of August, 1966.

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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #36)

Mon Jan 23, 2012, 03:07 AM

38. 1/2 empty or 1/2 full

Actually, I am in general an optimist. For example, I am extremely optimistic for the long-term (40 year) future of the US, India, China, subsaharan Africa...

For example, I do not believe that the reemergence of China onto the world stage after a historically anomalous 200 years of being dominated by outsiders will lead to a world war, the way that catastrophic war erupted in Europe when the European system could not accommodate the rise of a unified German state.

And after 40 years who can make predictions about anything, especially if ideas about the Singularity by Kurzweil and others are correct (google "tech singularity").

But when it comes to the Arab world and Egypt in particular, I am sorry to say that my pessimism is solidly grounded in fact. The results of the elections in Egypt are just one small indicator of the illiberal attitudes embraced by the population. We are talking about a country with a 97% rate of female genital mutilation - which has been ILLEGAL since 2007!

Unfortunately it is very difficult for people in the West to really put themselves in the shoes of Arab peasants whose thinking is separated from ours by hundreds of years of development, the enlightenment, democratic institutions, the sexual revolution, etc..

Things are going to slowly go from bad to worse as Egypt, which imports 1/2 of its food, runs out of money. So Egypt will starve. Then will come the riots, the blaming of the Copts and the burning of their churches, all increasing the economic chaos and killing what tourism is left. Then it will degenerate into Somalia on the Nile and the greatest humanitarian disaster the 21st century has seen. And I don't see how anyone can do anything about it.

It is a bleak picture, to be sure. Unfortunately it is the only one in accord with the data. Just keep an eye out for what happens to the Copts. When you hear of widespread riots against them you will now that the shit is beginning to hit the fan.



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Response to AverageJoe90 (Reply #30)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 04:05 PM

35. Yep. And I have to check this but it seems to me that some groups on the left

boycotted this election.

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Response to EFerrari (Reply #35)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 11:07 PM

37. While a well-meaning gesture.....

I'm afraid a boycott might have actually made things worse.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Sun Jan 22, 2012, 06:36 AM

32. HRW urged the West to recognize that Islamists are the “majority preference,” while keeping pressure

on the emerging new governments to respect human rights, especially regarding women and religious minorities."

In some ways, the unexpected uprisings amounted to a slap to the United States and other Western governments, which had supported autocratic regimes that served as bulwarks against Islamists hostile to the West and appeared to offer stability in a volatile region.

The organization also blamed the Western hesitation in part on the ascendence of political Islam in most of the countries that witnessed the fall of their autocratic rulers like Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia.

(HRW’s executive director Kenneth) Roth was cautious when asked about concerns about potential human rights violations under Islamist rule, particularly in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood and ultraconservative Salafis won a majority of seats in the first post-Hosni Mubarak parliament.

He said the Muslim Brotherhood has been “saying the right things” but “we have to see how they govern and how they deal with women, religious minorities. These are the big questions.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/human-rights-watch-urges-the-west-to-back-peaceful-protests-and-end-the-arab-exception/2012/01/22/gIQACBgvHQ_story.html?sub=AR

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