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Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:18 PM

U.S. to overtake Saudi as top oil producer: IEA

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - The United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world's top oil producer by 2017, the West's energy agency said on Monday, predicting Washington will come very close to achieving a previously unthinkable energy self-sufficiency.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it saw a continued fall in U.S. oil imports with North America becoming a net oil exporter by around 2030 and the United States becoming almost self-sufficient in energy by 2035.

"The United States, which currently imports around 20 percent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms - a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said.

The forecasts by the IEA, which advises large industrialized nations on energy policy, were in sharp contrast to its previous reports, which saw Saudi Arabia remaining the top producer until 2035.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/12/us-iea-oil-report-idUSBRE8AB0IQ20121112

26 replies, 3058 views

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Arrow 26 replies Author Time Post
Reply U.S. to overtake Saudi as top oil producer: IEA (Original post)
DonViejo Nov 2012 OP
Botany Nov 2012 #1
freshwest Nov 2012 #7
AgingAmerican Nov 2012 #10
Ashened Nov 2012 #16
msongs Nov 2012 #2
BadgerKid Nov 2012 #22
AgingAmerican Nov 2012 #3
GliderGuider Nov 2012 #24
Hugabear Nov 2012 #4
nc4bo Nov 2012 #17
valerief Nov 2012 #5
AgingAmerican Nov 2012 #6
freshwest Nov 2012 #8
hunter Nov 2012 #9
Atypical Liberal Nov 2012 #11
Hutzpa Nov 2012 #12
kurt_cagle Nov 2012 #20
SoapBox Nov 2012 #13
ThomThom Nov 2012 #14
Marie Marie Nov 2012 #21
Festivito Nov 2012 #15
kurt_cagle Nov 2012 #18
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 #19
demhottie Nov 2012 #23
muriel_volestrangler Nov 2012 #25
happyslug Nov 2012 #26

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:20 PM

1. But Fox News told me that Obama was stopping oil drilling in America

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:40 PM

7. And forbidding oil rigs after BP. There would be NO oil for America under Obama.

*insert chicken little image here*

Or

*insert chicken hawk image here*


Actually, they look exactly the same...

Who knew it would be so simple.

And it's all Obama's fault!

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:53 PM

10. This is technically true

There is hardly any liquid oil left in the USA. Now they mine it in the form of rocks.

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Response to Botany (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:08 PM

16. lol

I can't believe I didn't hear more about this from our side before the election. I did hear a few news reports, but nothing overtly campaign related...

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:24 PM

2. our underground wealth will be exported for corporate profits. lose lose for us nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:51 PM

22. Ours...or Canada's

if Keystone comes into being.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:26 PM

3. whenever I hear stories like this

I picture Rick Santorum making that speech where he was waving a black rock around, banging it on the podium, saying , ' this is oil'. So are we now mining it faster than the Saudis can pump it?

The fact that rocks now count as oil means we are almost tapped dry.

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Response to AgingAmerican (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:57 PM

24. Yes indeed.

"The fact that rocks now count as oil means we are almost tapped dry."

The whole idea that the USA might become the world's dominant oil-pumper is a pipe dream. The idea the you should have that position, and that the increased consumption of fossil fuels is a good thing, are two of the reasons the planet is in the shape it's in.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:29 PM

4. And we only have to kill the environment to accomplish this

Much of this oil will be extracted through fracking, which has already proven to be an environmental killer - not to mention a likely cause of earthquakes.

On top of that, it also means that we'll continue to poison the atmosphere and further accelerate climate change.

No thanks.

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Response to Hugabear (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:20 PM

17. Say it louder!

I can imagine by the time my youngest is as old as I am, he'll look at history and be able to pinpoint exactly when it was we fucked up.

There was a Y in the road and we had chosen poorly.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:29 PM

5. Does that include vegetable oil? nt

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Response to valerief (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:34 PM

6. It definitely includes rocks

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Response to valerief (Reply #5)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:42 PM

8. I like getting in back of vehicles running on filtered french fry oil, myself.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:45 PM

9. The good news: U.S. to overtake Saudi as top oil producer

The bad news: U.S. to overtake Saudi as top oil producer

If we had any sense as a species we'd ban fossil fuels.

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Response to hunter (Reply #9)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:59 PM

11. That is my take also.

 

I think it's great that we are achieving energy independence. But fossil fuels are a dead end. It's going to get harder and more destructive to obtain them and use them, and eventually we will still need a replacement.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 02:59 PM

12. It is becoming much more clearer now that

peak oil is a made up statistic to drive up gas prices which benefits people like the Koch brothers so that they can use their profits to fight against the deprivation of the basic American needs.

This makes Obama victory more sweeter.

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Response to Hutzpa (Reply #12)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:32 PM

20. Oh, please don't start

It's bad enough when the Republicans get into denial mode. US liquid oil peaked in 2005. Shale oil will likely peak in about 2025. Natural gas by 2035. After 2035, we're into coal, which will hold us until 2110. After that, we're back in the dark ages, unless we can actually get fusion working safely.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:03 PM

13. And what was the other part to this...

we are exporting more oil or gas, than is being left here in America?

So prices remain high...Pukes and Baggers want to kill anything that would cut us back on fossil fuel type use...

Hmmm...let me think.

2014 and 2016? I say Bring It, along with environmentally friendly candidates!

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:03 PM

14. we are not becoming self-sufficient ...we are selling more oil on the market

big difference
We still buy on the world market this is not our oil, it belongs to the oil companies.
This all because we are willing to process tar sands oil.
What are we going to do with the waste? Pump it to the ground for fracking?
Why are we doing this?
We need to lead the world in clean energy not oil or gas or coal or nuclear.

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Response to ThomThom (Reply #14)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 04:12 PM

21. That was my question exactly.

Our oil isn''t nationalized meaning they can drill the shit out of our lands and get all the oil they want but am I correct in that it belongs to the company that owns the drilling lease and they turn around and sell it on the open market? How does this oil switch over to meaning energy independence for the US? Can any one explain this cause I don't get this?

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:06 PM

15. They call it self-sufficient. I call it self-depleting.

As other countries can start using less oil and more renewables, we can still make the most green-house gasses. Big whoop.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:26 PM

18. Of course, there's another interpretation

By 2030, Saudi Arabia may be exporting considerably less oil than they do now.

We have not opened up vast new reserves. We have opened up old reserves that were not profitable to mine (not pump) at $30 a barrel, but that become more attractive at $100 a barrel. US petroleum consumption is also currently down about 20% from where it was in 2005, which in turn has freed up the country to be export more. That's why I take the IEA numbers with a big grain of salt.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 03:27 PM

19. Fails to mention the bi-product

which would be the end of the petro dollar recycling scam in the absense of which the US could not continue to print fiat money unabated.

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Mon Nov 12, 2012, 06:56 PM

23. How soon until proven reserves are depleted?

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 02:27 PM

25. Kick (nt)

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Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 03:09 PM

26. I missed this report, but did catch the same report on at least three other threads

So far I have seen posts from Bloomberg, New York Times and Aljereezza. The oldest of those three is Bloomberg's where I first made comments on this report:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014301394

If you want to read the actual summary of the IEA report go here:
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf

Here is the comments I made on the above Bloomberg's report:

Here is the actual Summary report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA), I will not cite the actual report for I am NOT buying it, the Summary on the other hand is free:

http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/English.pdf

There is several potential problems with the expectations set forth in that summary:

1. OPEC is expected to increase is share of total oil production from 42% to 50%, mostly in the increase production of Iraq. This is to offset expected drops in Russian and Mexican oil production (Which is NOT reported in the Summary, but is expected from other sources).

2. Oil prices will be $125/barrel (in year-2011 dollars) in 2035 (over $215/barrel in nominal terms). That is a quote from the Summary, I have no idea what they think the price of oil will be, but I have my fears. Present price is $105.21 a barrel as set by OPEC, $85.47 a barrel as priced by WTI, $109.87 for Brent. All of these prices may be compatible, for the price of oil depends on the ease it is to refine. The more it costs to refine, the cheaper the price of that oil ("Heavy, Sour" oil is closer to the $85 price, while "Light Sweet" oil" tends to the price of Brent. OPEC is a "base" price that the various OPEC members price there oil on.

Given that almost all of the new oil putting into production is "Heavy, Sour" oil and that will become the price base as we switch from using mostly "Light, Sweet" oil to "Heavy, Sour" oil, expect a substantial increase in the price of gasoline and Diesel at the pump. In simple terms look to $5 to $10 a gallon gasoline (and I lean to $10 a gallon). That brings me to the third problem:

3. The report expect a substantial increase in fuel efficiency in the US, i.e. the US switch to Hybrids using lightweight materials to reduce the weight of the Vehicle and thus producing a 50-100 mpg car. The Summary only mention Increase fuel Efficiency, but hybrids and light weight material is the only way to achieve that and both come at a substantial increase in the price of a vehicle.

THe US is no longer the #1 buyers of New cars, China is, but the US has a lot more cars given its much longer history of buying cars. The Average American car stays on the road 10-15 years, but through 3-4 owners. The 10-15 year cars tends to be purchased by the low income group to be used to get to their jobs in the suburbs. How can you improve the fuel efficiency of the cars used by this group within the next 10 years? The cars they will buy 10 years from now, are the cars being produced today, and for every Hybrid being produced you have 5-10 non-hybrids. In simple terms I do NOT see that economic group buying a Hybrid, for they will be out bid for them by other groups, thus must use conventional cars. If the hybrids were the majority of cars being sold today, it might be possible, but while Hybrids are what is bring people into the show room, most car buyers are leaving with something else. I just do NOT see the increase in Fuel Economy reaching the lowest economic levels, and without them how do you get the Cashiers to the Stores people want to go to, and do you get the Janitorial workers to clean those same businesses?

I would like to think this is American Wishful thinking but the IEA is Paris France based, so it may be European wishful thinking, for Europeans just assume the US mass transit system is as good as it is in Europe and it is no where close.

4. The Summary does NOT mention it, but by mentioning $250 a Barrel oil prices, that means Oil-Shale production in the US. At $250 a barrel, oil shale can be profitable (mostly due to oil being used to propel vehicles, while Nuclear energy is used to mine and process the Shale to produce the Oil). Canadian Oil Shale is profitable at the present time, for it has the greatest amount of energy (even Oil engineers are reluctant to call shale oil, oil, for the simple reason it is better looked at a pre-oil, something that is mined and then processed into oil). US Shale oil has less energy in the shale, but if another source of energy can be provided, the shale-oil can be mined and made into oil (Thus the idea of building nuclear plants to provide the needed energy). US Shale oil is close to the point where the energy used to produced the oil equals the oil produced. If that energy input can be reduced OR provided by another form of energy so that the entire Energy input into Shale Oil to become oil, is otherwise cost efficiency (Oil is a better compact fuel for vehicles then batteries or other electrical shortage devices), then even if excess energy is used to produced the oil, the cost advantage of having a source of oil may justify the energy input. The problem then is we have a very expensive fuel. $10 a gallon plus.

5. IEA expects world wide Hydro electrical production to double by 2050, supplying some of the power presently supplied by oil.

6. Some how US and China Coal use will peak and decline after 2020, while India's increase till 2035, when it peaks and declines. Then it points out this is uncertain. i.e. your guess is as good as they's.

IEA: World Energy Outlook 2012 - Executive Summary - English version
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,33339,en.html

Brent and WTI prices:
http://www.oil-price.net/

OPEC price:
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/

I am sorry, the summary says enough to scare me, the future it predicts depends on to many ifs, Iraq becomes the #2 oil producer, replacing Russia and Saudi Arabia, The US become #1 oil producer, and I suspect that means Shale oil, that people will be willing and able to pay $10 a gallon for gasoline (and I do NOT mean the middle class, I mean the working poor), and somehow the working poor can buy a hybrid, that costs more then they make.

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