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Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:10 AM

China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD

Source: Guardian


China will overtake the US in the next four years to become the largest economy in the world, says a leading international thinktank.

The Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said China's economy will be larger than the combined economies of the eurozone countries by the end of this year, and will overtake the US by the end of 2016.

Global GDP will grow by 3% a year over the next 50 years, it says, but there will be large variations between countries and regions. By 2025, it says the combined GDP of China and India will be bigger than that of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US and Canada put together. Asa Johansson, senior economist at the OECD, said: "It is quite a shift in the balance of economic power we are going to see in the future."

Inequalities will persist, even though people in the poorest countries will see their income more than quadruple by 2060, with those in China and India seeing a more than a seven-fold increase. By 2060, the OECD says living standards in the emerging countries will still only be 25%-60% of the level enjoyed by those in the US.

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/nov/09/china-overtake-us-four-years-oecd

22 replies, 3235 views

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Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply China's economy to overtake US in next four years, says OECD (Original post)
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 OP
Kolesar Nov 2012 #1
lalalu Nov 2012 #4
Le Taz Hot Nov 2012 #12
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 #13
Turbineguy Nov 2012 #2
lalalu Nov 2012 #3
Art_from_Ark Nov 2012 #5
lalalu Nov 2012 #6
Art_from_Ark Nov 2012 #15
dipsydoodle Nov 2012 #16
Art_from_Ark Nov 2012 #17
Left Coast2020 Nov 2012 #21
Atypical Liberal Nov 2012 #7
davidpdx Nov 2012 #8
madrchsod Nov 2012 #9
bossy22 Nov 2012 #10
valerief Nov 2012 #11
melody Nov 2012 #14
fasttense Nov 2012 #18
pampango Nov 2012 #20
DinahMoeHum Nov 2012 #19
Franker65 Nov 2012 #22

Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:21 AM

1. Sure. A country with looming food and energy shortages is an "economic power"...eom

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Response to Kolesar (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:28 AM

4. Exactly.

 

This is part of the new story line that will be put out after the election. How China is growing because they have cheap labor, zero rights, rampant pollution, and great wealth disparity. The only thing truly growing in China is social unrest.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #4)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:45 AM

12. And to further that same meme,

it will be the excuse the monied interest will make to justify lowering wages, eliminating benefits and relaxing environmental standards.

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Response to Kolesar (Reply #1)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:47 AM

13. They do however own a substantial part of "you"

so they're not exactly short of funds.

Which Foreign governments own the most U.S. debt?

1. China, Mainland, $1153.6 billion dollars
2. Japan, $1121.5 billion dollars
3. Oil Exporters*, $263.0 billion dollars
etc etc

http://www.davemanuel.com/us-national-debt-clock.php

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:25 AM

2. Quick! Elect some republicans!

that way they can get there in 2 years!

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:25 AM

3. Yeah right.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/business/global/chinas-economy-besieged-by-buildup-of-unsold-goods.html?pagewanted=all

That's the real story on China. They pay their workers next to nothing and wages have been depressed worldwide. This is the reality of what happens when workers earn less. They can't afford to buy stuff. Even that dope Ford understood that concept.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:55 AM

5. I was watching a TV program about China the other night

According to the program, 10% of the Chinese population makes less than the equivalent of about $400 a YEAR! The program showed children scavenging in junkyards looking for reusable materials. A good day brings in about $5. And lots of kids in Beijing can't attend public schools because they aren't officially recognized as Beijing residents. So they have to go to vastly underfunded private schools, if their parents can afford it.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 07:57 AM

6. The truth that seldom gets reported.

 

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Response to lalalu (Reply #6)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:22 AM

15. I know quite a few Chinese women

who are married to Japanese men here in Japan. That program provided me with a lot of insight into their mindset. Those ladies are really gung-ho about education for their children, and enroll then in all sorts of private tutorial classes here, like English classes, music classes, and calligraphy classes. They really seem to want their kids to have every possible opportunity to develop talents and skills that they probably wouldn't have had back in China.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #15)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:30 AM

16. I met some youngsters in Cuba couple of years back

on a 5 year course learning Spanish paid for by the Chinese government. Soon as they qualify they'll be let loose serving China's business interests in a country whose language is Spanish.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #16)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:33 AM

17. With Spanish, they'll have most of Central and South America

opened up to them.

For example, there is a lot of interest in Peru and Chile because of those countries' immense deposits of copper and other metals.

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Response to Art_from_Ark (Reply #5)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 02:39 PM

21. When I worked in Shenyang .....

..the school I worked for used me as their "marketing tool" so they could get more students. If a school (private) has an American teacher, it is supposed to be something special--reason being that parents want their kids to learn from an American more than someone from UK, or elsewhere. And yes, I always saw kids and adults on their bike karts peddeling whatever they found to sell. A sad lifestyle for most.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:19 AM

7. This will make a great GOP talking point just in time for the next election.

 

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:19 AM

8. The inequity is pretty bad there

I lived in China for 10 months and the government comes though and rips down houses in places for development and then they sit empty for years. There was a very nice gated community of condos near our school and my friend and I were looking at them. He said most of them were sitting empty. A very nice old man was working as a security guard and we tried to ask him how much they were. His reply was "too much".

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:21 AM

9. sometime in this century there will be another "world war"

it will happen in asia over water and food.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:39 AM

10. This is only using one measurement

the PPP measurement.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 08:39 AM

11. Yes, but we have the biggest penises, er, armies. nt

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 09:15 AM

14. They said that forty years ago, only the "big evil economy" was Japan

China has many problems and obstacles we don't face.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:03 AM

18. Boy the OECD is really out of touch

Do they have any idea of how horribly poor the average Chinese worker is? Do they know all those new Chinese gated condo communities are sitting empty? Do they know how huge the wealth Inequality is? The OECD needs to do some more thinking.

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Response to fasttense (Reply #18)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 11:40 AM

20. Chinese workers are poor but not nearly so poor as 20 years ago.

Those wages have indeed risen by 16% a year for a decade: and two years ago we could have said by 14% since the millennium. But just 16% per year for a decade means they have risen over 4 times. Yes, really, Chinese manufacturing wages are over four times what they were only ten years ago. This is quite probably the fastest and largest rise in general wages in the history of our entire species. The thing is, such Chinese manufacturing wages are still only in the $6,000 to $7,000 a year range. Much better than they were but still nowhere near as high as those in the US.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/10/29/the-revival-of-american-manufacturing-but-the-jobs-still-arent-coming-back/

The OECD (and practically everyone else) knows that income inequality in China is horrible. We know that because the GINI of China is 48 and is even worse than that of the US (45). There are not many countries with an income inequality worse than the US. Countries with very good distributions of income (European countries are the best examples) have GINI's in the mid-20's.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Fri Nov 9, 2012, 10:15 AM

19. I call BS. China as A superpower, yes. THE superpower, NO.

Click on the link for further food for thought:

http://www.amazon.com/What-Chinese-Want-Communism-Consumer/dp/023034030X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1352413317&sr=1-1&keywords=what+chinese+want+by+tom+doctoroff#reader_023034030X

The US economy and people have 2 pieces of kryptonite the Chinese cannot defend against:
1) Innovation
2) Adaptability

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Response to dipsydoodle (Original post)

Tue Nov 13, 2012, 07:44 AM

22. This is speculative

I really think this is possible, but only if China isn't heading into a large property market crash. According to statistics in 2012, 46% of Americans believe China will become the world's leading economic power. Chinese progress over the past decade has been monumental - if they continue like this, there is no reason why they shouldn't succeed as the world's strongest economy.

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