Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:32 AM
mahatmakanejeeves (3,669 posts)
October payroll employment rises (+171,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)
Last edited Fri Nov 2, 2012, 08:39 AM USA/ET - Edit history (2)
This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by muriel_volestrangler (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2012
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment
rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care,
and retail trade.
Household Survey Data
Both the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3
million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September.
(See table A-1.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for blacks increased to 14.3
percent in October, while the rates for adult men (7.3 percent), adult women (7.2
percent), teenagers (23.7 percent), whites (7.0 percent), and Hispanics (10.0 percent)
showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 4.9 percent in October
(not seasonally adjusted), down from 7.3 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1,
A-2, and A-3.)
Among the marginally attached, there were 813,000 discouraged workers in October, a
decline of 154,000 from a year earlier. (These data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See
Read more: Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.
What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with the ADP estimate.
The charge was made that September’s numbers were cooked. A fellow who used to head the BLS says this is not possible.
Impossible to Manipulate Labor Survey Data — Former BLS Head.
By Geoffrey Rogow
ADP, for employment in October:
U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in October, According to ADP National Employment ReportBLS, for employment in September:
U.S. Economy Added 114,000 Jobs In September, Unemployment Falls To 7.8%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics - The Employment Situation - September 2012
ADP, for employment in September:
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP National Employment Report
BLS, for employment in August:
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)
An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, &quot;disappointing.&quot; It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:
August 2012 Report
ADP, for employment in August:
The ADP National Employment Report August 2012
BLS, for employment in July:
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)
ADP, for employment in July. I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.
The ADP National Employment Report July 2012
BLS, for employment in June:
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)
Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.
Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks&amp;amp;#8206;
AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May'’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the &amp;quot;U-6 Number.&amp;quot; That can be found in Table A15. It is &amp;quot;Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force.&amp;quot; It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.
Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12
ADP, for employment in June:
ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)
BLS, for employment in May:
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)
ADP, for employment in May:
May change in employment +133,000
BLS, for employment in April:
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)
ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:
There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom
ADP &amp;amp; TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite
There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.
Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally
ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man
One more thing:
So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™
Well, enough of that. On with the show.
Monthly Employment Reports
The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.
A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to &amp;quot;Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization.&amp;quot; Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
From the February 10, 2011, &amp;quot;DOL Newsletter&amp;quot;:
6 replies, 894 views
Cannot reply in locked threads
October payroll employment rises (+171,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%) (Original post)
Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 09:26 AM
muriel_volestrangler (65,853 posts)
6. Locking - duplicate thread
You posted in the same minute, so I'm sure you couldn't see the other one when you started composing this, but a sort of LBN by start time shows the other was posted first. We like to keep the comments on these stories together in LBN, so I'm afraid I'm goign to lock this one. Please continue comments in the others thread.
Cannot reply in locked threads