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Monday was an orderly day in the polls.
National polls showed a modestly favorable trend for President Obama, allowing him to gain slightly in our forecast. (Mr. Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College are now 66.0 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight model, up from 63.4 percent on Sunday.) But the movement toward him was not anything extraordinary, serving only to offset some of the decline he experienced in the polls late last week, and to bring the national polls more in line with state-by-state surveys.
The state polls themselves were decent for Mitt Romney. But there weren’t all that many of them, and the trend that they showed — a four-point gain for Mr. Romney, on average, since the Denver debate on Oct. 3 — was in line with our previous understanding about the magnitude of his gains.
No one of the polls published on Monday really ought to fit the definition of an outlier. Some were slightly more favorable or slightly less so for the respective candidates, but in a way that is consistent with unavoidable statistical variation and the methodological differences between different polling firms.
Let me first you show you the trend in national polls; there were 10 of them published on Monday.
Mr. Obama made gains in 5 of the 10 polls as compared with the previous version of the survey, which in most cases postdated the Denver debate. Mr. Romney gained in one poll, although by less than a full percentage point. The others were exactly unchanged.