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Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:19 PM

Obama pollster: Gallup/USAT poll an 'extreme outlier' (Updated)

Source: Politico

The Obama campaign just blasted out a memo from pollster Joel Benenson, calling today's Gallup/USA Today numbers — which give Mitt Romney a 5-point lead in key swing states — inaccurate and skewed:

The latest Gallup/USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll.

— This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.

Only 2 years ago the distortions in Gallup’s likely voter screen were exposed, leaving Gallup’s survey 9 points off the mark just days before the election.


Gallup’s data is once again far out of line with other public pollsters.



Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/10/obama-pollster-gallupusat-poll-an-extreme-outlier-138516.html

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Reply Obama pollster: Gallup/USAT poll an 'extreme outlier' (Updated) (Original post)
underpants Oct 2012 OP
Mojo2 Oct 2012 #1
R. Daneel Olivaw Oct 2012 #3
Coyotl Oct 2012 #48
LiberalFighter Oct 2012 #4
Drab Oct 2012 #5
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #6
Setsuna1972 Oct 2012 #8
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #9
Mojorabbit Oct 2012 #35
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #38
arely staircase Oct 2012 #11
noel711 Oct 2012 #12
NYMountaineer Oct 2012 #13
BlueToTheBone Oct 2012 #14
demosincebirth Oct 2012 #15
DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #17
Rozlee Oct 2012 #18
Kteachums Oct 2012 #39
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #19
budkin Oct 2012 #20
Andy Stanton Oct 2012 #21
nobodyspecial Oct 2012 #27
Mojorabbit Oct 2012 #37
TheMadMonk Oct 2012 #54
snooper2 Oct 2012 #29
Andy Stanton Oct 2012 #32
Loudestlib Oct 2012 #45
kstewart33 Oct 2012 #23
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #28
OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #41
KANTANA Oct 2012 #43
Coyotl Oct 2012 #47
wordpix Oct 2012 #49
olegramps Oct 2012 #57
demwing Oct 2012 #58
Dustlawyer Oct 2012 #2
skeewee08 Oct 2012 #7
Drab Oct 2012 #10
BlueinOhio Oct 2012 #26
Mojo2 Oct 2012 #16
Andy Stanton Oct 2012 #24
skeewee08 Oct 2012 #25
hrmjustin Oct 2012 #30
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #36
boppers Oct 2012 #44
wordpix Oct 2012 #50
TheMadMonk Oct 2012 #55
AndyTiedye Oct 2012 #59
BlueinOhio Oct 2012 #22
sandyshoes17 Oct 2012 #31
GeorgeGist Oct 2012 #33
Baitball Blogger Oct 2012 #40
2on2u Oct 2012 #34
TheMadMonk Oct 2012 #56
Samantha Oct 2012 #42
Loudestlib Oct 2012 #46
LisaL Oct 2012 #51
LineLineLineNew Reply .
Loudestlib Oct 2012 #53
lalalu Oct 2012 #52

Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:29 PM

1. Sort of Down

I had high hopes of obama winning the election, but I am starting to doubt that he will be able to pull it off. THe outside spending against him has been incredible, the voter suppression efforts in Ohio and Florida are going to make it tough. The polls everyday seem to be slipping away from Obama, I just don't get how one bad debate can have such a drastic impact. I live in Florida, Obama is not going to win here, in the last hour I have had 6 Romney commercials come on the air, they are just crushing him with the commercials. Our loser Gov. Scott, has made it so difficult for minorities to vote that it is almost impossible for a Dem to win.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:35 PM

3. Wow. Really. Wow. I guess we should all take your lead and not vote.



Do you really believe this kind of shizzle works?


Amateurs.

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Response to R. Daneel Olivaw (Reply #3)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:28 PM

48. "Obama’s chances of winning the Electoral College are now 66.0 percent" and rising

Last edited Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:28 PM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

No wonder they hired more trolls for sites like DU

source: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/oct-15-distracted-by-polling-noise/?hp

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:38 PM

4. Your first day under that account name

and you expect us to believe that you are a Democrat?

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:39 PM

5. When the going gets tough, the tough gets going!

In the end, the voters will have the last say so.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:42 PM

6. I could wallpaper half my house with all the Romney shit

I am getting as a registered DEMOCRAT. Does it bother me? No. Because I know my own mind and he is just wasting his time and money. I consider that to be a sign of a desperate man.

All I see are Romney stickers, BUT I don't have an Obama one on my car. Because I don't, does that mean I am voting for Romney? Let them THINK I am voting for Romney. Same as I would say about those CEO's telling their employees to vote for Romney or be fired. I DO live in a place where it's being said.

I want Obama to win ANYWAY he can. I will not cry if he loses Florida, as long as the OTHER states keep him in the White House.

Transplanted New Yorker living in Florida. Florida is not the be all and end all of the USA, in more ways than one.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:45 PM

8. Hmm

I find your reasoning quite.....unreasonable

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:46 PM

9. I live in Florida. And Obama will win here.

You should have lurked and informed yourself before posting.

There are as many, if not more Obama commercials than there are Romney commercials.

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Response to Baitball Blogger (Reply #9)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:56 PM

35. I live here too

and I am being bombed by mail from Romney and surrogates every day. I don't watch much tv so can't comment on the commercials. I think Obama will win Florida but it will be close.

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Response to Mojorabbit (Reply #35)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:59 PM

38. It will be close, and they can send all the mailers they like.

There is a lot of bullying that goes on here from Republicans and I believe that Romney will soon reveal himself as the anti-christ and many of those Republicans will just stay home on election day.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:51 PM

11. i am totally demoralized

i think obama should just drop out of the race and the democratic party just disband

oh, whoa as me

i am certainly not going to vote

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:53 PM

12. So who are you really...?

LIke, you do really belong here?

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:53 PM

13. Utter nonsense.

This is a close game, and Obama has a lot more routes to 270 that Romney. As long as he stays on message, the odds are in Obama's favor.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:56 PM

14. Deep breath Mojo2.

Call your local Democratic head quarters and call for both the President and your local candidates. You'll feel much better...or wait and watch the debate tomorrow and you'll feel better or you won't. But whatever you do, don't forget to vote.
Welcome to DU

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:57 PM

15. Flying under the radar, eh?

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:03 PM

17. WTF?

All this makes me do is work just as much harder on helping President Obama get reelected! I will be damned if I ever let republican cheats get me down. Obama is taking Florida and the White House. Get over it and turn your depression into action and help people get out to VOTE!

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:05 PM

18. LOL! Obama's got it wrapped up.

First, in Florida, polls show that mailed votes, usually overwhelmingly Republican, are now neck and neck with Democrats. It's got the state repubs worried as hell. Also, a poll of voters that have already voted have Obama ahead 59% to 37%. And how about that Arizona; a solid red state where angry Latinos have pushed Obama and Romney into a tie? Then, in a poll of Washinton insiders of both parties (former staff members of McCain, Kerry, Reagan and former presidents and candidates, budget directors, staffers from other administrations, etc.) the consensus that Obama will win is up to 82%. Washington insiders have their fingers on the pulse and know what's in the wind. Plus, too many other polls have Obama winning in the battleground states. And have you seen these puny rallies Romney gets? Although, you can see them from space for all the WHITE reflecting back. Obama's rallies are huge and have diversity of every kind. Romney's not getting beyond the solid bloc of the old white dude vote. He's lost with African-Americans, Hispanics, Asian-Americans, Jews, Native-Americans, the female and youth vote, and, of all things, a plurality of Catholics.

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Response to Rozlee (Reply #18)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:00 PM

39. Thank you Rozlee! I need to see Obama win badly!

I have Cancer, a daughter in college, and am going to retire this year. I get scared everytime I hear bad news. Your facts are encouraging!

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:06 PM

19. Three posts...

blue yorker, is that you?

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:08 PM

20. Give me a break

He's in perfect position to win and will be even more so after tomorrow night.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:08 PM

21. Ignore the putdowns

Unfortunately there are a lot of immature contributors to DU who unload on anyone who's not a go-go cheerleader for Democrats 100 percent of the time.

Personally, I understand your sense of depression over the way the campaign is going. Obama had it in the bag and, because of his rotten debate performance, he let his lead slip away.

However, keep in mind that a strong debate performance tomorrow could well turn things around. If Obama performs like he's capable of doing, he'll win the election.

Tomorrow is make or break for President Obama.

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Response to Andy Stanton (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:16 PM

27. Wow, you've been here for three weeks and already know it all

"Unfortunately there are a lot of immature contributors to DU who unload on anyone who's not a go-go cheerleader for Democrats 100 percent of the time. "

Well, since I'm on of the immature ones

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Response to nobodyspecial (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:58 PM

37. He is right. There are a lot of people who unload on worried Dems lately. nt

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Response to nobodyspecial (Reply #27)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 02:41 AM

54. And you are conflating DU membership with time on planet.

I'll call on disengiuity like your's every time over a low counter's understandable pesimism.

Your assumed superiority over a latecomer says a hell of a lot more about you than it does your target.

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Response to Andy Stanton (Reply #21)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:19 PM

29. You want to make a bet on who wins?

I'm game

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:24 PM

32. Romney bet Perry $10,000

But Romney's an ass.

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Response to snooper2 (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:17 PM

45. If you find someone who will take you up on that.

Let me know I want to get in on that.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:11 PM

23. Do us all a favor and leave. nt

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:17 PM

28. never give up! Obama will win my friend.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:18 PM

41. Oh, boy....

....

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:52 PM

43. Please take your negativity somewhere else troll!!!

We are pretty fired up for Obama on this site and your reverse psychology tactics have failed. Go back to your right wing world, but do come back on Nov. 7th for our grand victory party on DU!!!

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:21 PM

47. Enjoy your brief visit

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:37 PM

49. don't count O out in FL as long as the R's don't steal the election again

and OH is in O's bag.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 09:59 AM

57. Troll alert??? Can't tell.

Last edited Tue Oct 16, 2012, 10:19 AM USA/ET - Edit history (1)

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #1)


Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:34 PM

2. If you are going to be a bear, be a grizzly! It appears that they have used EVERY cheat!

Voter purges, voter ID, continue to air commercials that have been proven false, fake photo ops (Ryan cleaning clean pans at soup kitchen on Ed show now to show compassionate side), and fake polls. It says to me they plan on rigging the vote! You can take that to the bank, they are going all out!!!

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 08:42 PM

7. Oh please

Did I read on DU that President O had a 2 point lead in AZ.....

President O is leading in Ohio Wisconsin & Nevada. Romney will have to win in every swing state except Ohio & that's not gonna happen...

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Response to skeewee08 (Reply #7)


Response to skeewee08 (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:15 PM

26. Do not trust Husted

Blackwell had that office then democrat Brunner and now Husted. When Blackwell was in he was co chair of Bush's re-election campaign with Noe. Noe went to jail in the end but somehow Blackwell escaped. At least he did not become governor the polls were to much in the favor of Strickland for him to cheat.

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:02 PM

16. I am a Democrat

I grew up in Ohio, my father was vice pres for the U.S. Steelworkers union, so I grew up on a Democratic home. My wife and me moved to Florida in 2009, I want Obama to win because I fear for the future for my two daughters if Romney gets into the WHite House. Three weeks ago, I thought this was in the bag, Romney is moron and I thought the public had figured him out. I just cannot believe that one debate could possibly cost Obama reelection, especially when all Romney did was lie. The past two weeks have made me sick to my stomach, as I dread a Romney win and a return to the failed Bush and Cheney policies, as well as the damage that will be done to the women's right movement. It pains me that our country has so many people that would actually fall for the tricks of Romney, didn't they learn from the Bush and Cheney years? I am still hoping and praying for a Obama win, but it just seems like everything is against us this year, from the voter suppression tactics, the ton of lying ads, etc...I thought after Biden kicked Ryans ass that things would start looking up, but the polls seem to be going the other way. If Romney wins, I have started to plan to leave the country until 2016 for my daughters sake. In all honesty, I will not even watch the debate tomorrow, when Romney lies it makes me so angry that I do not want to cause myself to have health problems. Lets hope, that tomorrow Obama can right the ship, for my two daughters sake, and to save me from developing ulcers or stroking out.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:12 PM

24. I feel the same way

But let's see what happens at tomorrow's debate. I think things will be looking up on Wednesday morning.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:15 PM

25. Welcome to the DU Mojo2

don't be discouraged the M$M wants & need a close election. Like I said above Robme needs to win every swing state except Ohio to win & that's not going to happen when President O is leading in Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin & has early voting lead in Iowa.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:20 PM

30. welcome to du and never give up.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:56 PM

36. Well then, welcome to DU.

Relax. Florida is one incredibly screwed up state and you may just have tapped into the insanity. If you want to survive Florida, seek organizations that are Dem leaning and stay away from Republicans. They are racist and entitled and their sense of entitlement will intimidate you.

We are in a transition in Florida. I am counting on the Latino vote to turn the tables.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:58 PM

44. I miss paragraphs. eom

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:43 PM

50. I just wrote a report on FL, it'll be close but it ain't over yet by a long shot---REALLY exciting

race. You have a very diverse state with non-whites overwhelmingly for O, Rick Scott trying to suppress the vote, the conservative white guys and retirees for Rmoney, those who care a great deal about Medicare for O, Rmoney pouring million$ into the state in a last orgasmic gasp to close the deal, Dems trying to keep up...it's very close.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 02:52 AM

55. One lacklustre debate is all the mainstream media needed...

...to promote the "too close to call" message. With that out there, manipulation becomes possible.

The test will come if/when those results are manipulated, as it has been demonstrated was done (with ZERO REPURCUSSION) on more than one occasion in the past.

If it happens again and you lot don't break out the pitchforks and torches, then the question is not about Americans deserving their government, but whether or not the rest of the world deserve Americans.

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Response to Mojo2 (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 08:01 PM

59. Hoping for the Best and Trying to Prepare for the Worst

I just cannot believe that one debate could possibly cost Obama reelection, especially when all Romney did was lie.


It is getting hard not to believe it at this point. Obama can still win, but everything has to go our way for that to happen.

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:09 PM

22. GOP needs the polls to be close

If the polls are close then it will be easy for them to cheat. They can force the votes on the electronic voting machines. The polls do not even have to be true just say that Romney is a few points off.

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Response to BlueinOhio (Reply #22)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:21 PM

31. That's my thoughts

The MSM and polls are trying to make it look like Romney could win. That's what scares me, if the polls look close they can hack the votes in to match it. Ugh. We need to get everyone out to vote.

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:26 PM

33. Gish Gallup?

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Response to GeorgeGist (Reply #33)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:00 PM

40. Has something to do with throwing so many lies at your opponent that they

waste a lot of time trying to debunk them, and takes them off their own message.

Or something like that.

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 09:26 PM

34. Seems they are going for the lemming effect, AIN'T. GONNA. WORK.

 

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Response to 2on2u (Reply #34)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 02:56 AM

56. Why shouldn't it? It's always worked before.

To paraphrase Winston Churhill: Americans collectively have a very bad habit of doing the right thing, ONLY when there is no further profit to be had from doing otherwise.

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:34 PM

42. This move is right out of Karl Rove's playbook

I don't know how closely you watched the 2000 election contest, but George W. Bush* took on a pompous air and strutted around like the election was in the bag. He acted like the winner, and the election had not yet been held. Act like the winner, and people will start regarding you as one. His father also pulled this maneuver in a primary up North when he was running for President. Cannot remember the state, but the results were a virtual tie and a recount was to be held. George H.W. Bush declared himself the winner, left the state and went on to his next appearance.

It runs in the family, this maneuver, and then there is the lowest common denominator in both races: Rove coached both Bushes*.

Don't become a victim of their repulsive maneuvers. Look at the facts. Cheers.

Samantha

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:21 PM

46. I hope people are scared

Democrats fall in love Republicans fall in line. Republicans get angry and vote Democrats get scared and vote.

Be scared! Scare your parents, scare you neighbors, scare you kids. We are going to win this.

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Response to Loudestlib (Reply #46)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:44 PM

51. Good point.

Maybe being scared is good.

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Response to LisaL (Reply #51)

Tue Oct 16, 2012, 12:25 AM

53. .

Someone else on DU said this was the Not Going to Change election.

Not Going to Change my Medicare!
Not Going to Change my Social Security!
Not Going to Change Women's Rights!

Definitely, Not Going to Change my President!

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Response to underpants (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:46 PM

52. You are being nice.

 

Just come out and say they are dirty rotten liars.

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