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Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:02 AM

Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Those Who Have Already Voted: Reuters/Ipsos Poll

Source: Reuters

Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll

WASHINGTON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:15am EDT

By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: http://bit.ly/RmeEen)

With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: http://bit.ly/SWm5YR).

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8991FR20121014

46 replies, 7787 views

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Reply Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Those Who Have Already Voted: Reuters/Ipsos Poll (Original post)
Hissyspit Oct 2012 OP
aquart Oct 2012 #1
lebkuchen Oct 2012 #2
mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #3
fasttense Oct 2012 #4
garthranzz Oct 2012 #5
Iliyah Oct 2012 #18
donquijoterocket Oct 2012 #28
demwing Oct 2012 #45
KevTucky Oct 2012 #6
liberal N proud Oct 2012 #9
mikki35 Oct 2012 #16
obxhead Oct 2012 #25
Zoeisright Oct 2012 #32
liberal N proud Oct 2012 #7
Change Happens Oct 2012 #8
HockeyMom Oct 2012 #22
wordpix Oct 2012 #24
sarcasmo Oct 2012 #27
lunatica Oct 2012 #10
calimary Oct 2012 #40
lanlady Oct 2012 #11
Setsuna1972 Oct 2012 #13
fasttense Oct 2012 #14
obxhead Oct 2012 #26
Kahuna Oct 2012 #12
groundloop Oct 2012 #15
mikki35 Oct 2012 #17
calimary Oct 2012 #41
Iliyah Oct 2012 #19
HereSince1628 Oct 2012 #20
Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #29
calimary Oct 2012 #42
still_one Oct 2012 #21
kansasobama Oct 2012 #23
ffr Oct 2012 #31
ffr Oct 2012 #30
zonkers Oct 2012 #33
KevTucky Oct 2012 #38
ip5683 Oct 2012 #34
truthisfreedom Oct 2012 #35
David Zephyr Oct 2012 #36
lexw Oct 2012 #37
AzDar Oct 2012 #39
Coyotl Oct 2012 #43
Captain_truthteller Oct 2012 #44
WillParkinson Oct 2012 #46

Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:21 AM

1. Pleasant news.

Those ballots are stored where?

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:29 AM

2. Across-the-ponders have spoken

and that includes the military.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:08 AM

3. I am hopeful it will be over early on election night and the R's won't know what hit them.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:21 AM

4. Just wait until Mittens gets his vote fixer going

that will turn around in a minute.

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Response to fasttense (Reply #4)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:36 AM

5. One way to shut down the fix/theft

is to make the vote too overwhelming for a steal to be credible. That's what happened in 08.

There will be more reporting of early voting. The numbers will only go up. At some point, the lead in early voting becomes too great to offset with cooked numbers in the swing states.

It's one of those math-word problems:

If Obama leads by 20 points with 7 percent reporting, and that lead holds, at what point have the scales tipped? When would Romney have to get 100% of the remaining votes to win? 75%?

Any math people want to work the numbers?

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Response to garthranzz (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:02 AM

18. Arithmetic, GOPpers don't know no stinking arithmetic

Unfortunately that is true

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Response to garthranzz (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:58 AM

28. offset with cooked numbers

and rigged voting machines. But you know the first thing will be that these early voting reports are cooked or rigged, a figment of the liberal media. If you can't rig it at one end try to make it illegitimate for some reason, at the other. That was the most of the opposition to president Obama starting,but not ending,with the birthers. He was duly elected president but he was still somehow illegitimate. They'll never admit that the prime motivating factor in it all was racism.

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Response to garthranzz (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:04 PM

45. If Obama leads by 20%

and the only candidates are him or Romney, then this means Obama has 60% of the vote to Romney's 40%.

If that lead holds, once 84% of the votes are in, Obama will have won (.84 * .6 = .504, or just over 50%).

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:53 AM

6. If someone is caught stealing votes.

They should be tried for treason.

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Response to KevTucky (Reply #6)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:02 AM

9. You might want to use a sarcasm smiley when you post this type of stuff

Unless you are seriously making accusations then other things would need to be considered.

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:37 AM

16. Why would it NOT be treason?

If successful, that is known as a coup d'etat, is it not? I'm trying to figure out what part of election theft is not treasonous, and utterly failing. Nope, no sarcasm. None at all.

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:05 AM

25. I don't see any accusation from this post.

"IF" someone is "CAUGHT"

I completely agree. It should be considered treason if someone is caught tampering with the election.

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Response to liberal N proud (Reply #9)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:41 AM

32. No sarcasm needed.

You might want to study democracy a little bit.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:00 AM

7. That is good to hear on a Sunday morning just ahead of the Sunday republican love fest shows

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:00 AM

8. I am thinking about camping out the night before early voting starts! Want to be first in line

at 7:00 AM on that day!

Live in Florida...

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Response to Change Happens (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:58 AM

22. I won't be in Florida for Early Voting

although I will be back 2 days before Election Day. I have decided NOT to mail in my Absentee Ballot, but go to the polls instead. I am VERY paranoid about voting in Florida, especially living in the very red area (Naples) of Rick Scott and Connie Mack.

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Response to Change Happens (Reply #8)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:01 AM

24. FL is THE most important state (again). Here's hoping the Dem poll watchers are out in force so R's

won't steal another election

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Response to wordpix (Reply #24)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:11 AM

27. If Obama wins Florida and Ohio, Thurston Howell is toast.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:05 AM

10. Here in California we just got our absentee ballots

which means there is now a flood of votes being sent back to add to the tally. I mailed mine yesterday.

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Response to lunatica (Reply #10)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:41 PM

40. I mailed mine in, too!

My son and I, both. Husband's next. Nice to feel done with it, personally. But I wish that were the case, nationwide. As fervent as we all are about this election, I'd bet most if not all of us REALLY wish it were OVER already.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:07 AM

11. I voted on Oct. 4 in Virginia

and I have to say, there were quite a few voters already at the polling station at our local DMV. Va. mass-mailed registered voter cards this year (I don't recall that happening before) so that's what I used for my ID.

Right-wing crackpot Virgil Goode is on the ballot for president -- I think he'll peel off lots of votes from Romney, especially in the brain-dead parts of the state.

We turned Virginia from red to blue in 2008, let's keep it that way!!

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Response to lanlady (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:27 AM

13. Where can I go vote early in VA?

Can I go to the local election office or DMV or how to cast my absentee ballot???

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Response to lanlady (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:29 AM

14. They did a mass mail out of voter registration cards

here to in TN. But it clearly says on the bottom that the card can NOT be used for Identification at the voting booth.

So, I wonder what is the use of mailing out or giving out a registration card at all?

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Response to lanlady (Reply #11)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:07 AM

26. The VA voter card changed this year

that's why you received a new one in the mail. Every registered voter was supposed to get a new card.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:22 AM

12. So much for the enthusiasm gap..

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:31 AM

15. Good Bye early voting.....

at least in states with repub legislatures.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:40 AM

17. Ohio early vote

I voted Friday in rural southern Ohio - NEVER see anyone there usually. There were people voting when I arrived, more arriving while I was voting, and had to stand in line to hand my card back!!! I was shocked!

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Response to mikki35 (Reply #17)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:43 PM

41. Welcome to DU, mikki35!

We don't have this thing locked in yet. Glad you're here. We need you.




Now get to work.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:19 AM

19. The GOP party also think they have 100% of the Evangelists votes which is NOT TRUE

I know maybe 60% may vote for GOPpers but ya'still have the remaining 40%. From that 40% maybe half will not vote and the other half will vote for the other guy.

GOPpers is not the party of Christianity. They don't practice what they spew, and they are hateful as hell. Christians DO NOT hate like that.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:36 AM

20. Interesting...

Setting aside the notion that Obama actually has a 30 point lead in Ohio among people who will vote, which seems unlikely, what causes pro-Obama voters to vote early, compared to pro-Romney voters?

Is it just that pro-Obama voters are more likely to take advantage of the convenience of voting on a day of their choosing because they are more open to doing something less traditional?

Or is it directed at circumventing some perceived problem(s) these voters associate with showing up at Ohio polling places on election day?

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Response to HereSince1628 (Reply #20)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:06 AM

29. Maybe Romney supporters are all talk

I can't honestly believe that more than maybe a fanatical 20% of Americans are genuinely excited about Romney. His flip-flops and sneering comments on ordinary Americans are too well-documented to be ignored.

One theory I have is that a lot of older white voters just have a visceral reaction against Obama, and they express that by responding in the polls that they'll vote for Romney (or Perry or Gingrich or Jack Bauer). It really doesn't matter who you plug in, so long as he is not Obama.

But actually voting for someone is a completely different matter. Maybe on election day, they'll finally show up. But I would think that if they were genuinely worried that the country was headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to simply having a prejudiced and culture-based hatred for the president, they would hurry to the polls at the earliest opportunity. I mean, surely these people know how critical Ohio is to Romney?

It's fun to vent and talk big about how you're going to boot that Hawaiian-Kenyan-Indonesian Mulatto with the Race Traitor of a Mother out of the WH when the pollsters call you up, but is that going to translate to actually heading out to vote? Maybe not.

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Response to Alekei_Firebird (Reply #29)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:58 PM

42. Interesting observation. Welcome to DU!

Yeah, it's fun to vent. But deep-down, it does really start to make one wonder about our fellow man (and woman as well, of course). That they could be THAT poorly informed - oh yeah, and you forgot "Communist" in that litany there. That they could be THAT unChristian. That they could be THAT racist - that racism of that level of virulence still exists in this country in the 21st Century. It's such a horrid thought that one automatically wants to resist it and assert that it's not true. That it can't be true. I find myself sometimes mumbling - "is THIS who we are? Is THIS what we've become?"

Maybe with a few it might be peer pressure at work. If you sit in church every Sunday and hear the preacher pound on from the pulpit about the evils of liberalism and you-better-vote-for-wrongney-if-you-value-your-immortal-soul, and you're surrounded by it - would you feel combative and eager to go on defense (or offense) a lot of the time? Or would you just kinda sit or stand by quietly and just not say anything. Would you start feeling depressed, and worn down? Would your conscience start bothering you? Would it start making you uncomfortable to be surrounded by shit-spew like that all the time? If you lived in a blood-red state, or as CONservative a neighborhood or community or part of town, if your boss ran limbaugh on the office radio system all the time, or your office TV was set and glued to Pox Noise?

Might be something that would, indeed, eventually drive a few to start examining their consciences. Or at least to a reality check. If you finally decide to suspend your Pox-Noise-indoctrinated disbelief long enough to accept the astoundingly large number of facts supporting the other side. Certainly that could happen. I doubt it will happen with hoards of 'em. After all - NOBODY likes having to admit they were wrong, much less having to concede that THEIR "bad guy" was correct all along, or genuinely helped them or someone they cared about. When it's supposed to be YOUR side that does all the good things because it talked about extreme Christianity all the time, but it winds up that the more generous and compassionate and truly Christ-like behavior is what you find on your opponents' side. That's hard to accept, for some. Mighty hard. Look how hard it is to get a sincere apology out of public figures of any kind these days. They have to have societal or financial or public relations "guns" to their heads sometimes.

But to try to step beyond the partisanship when you're practically drowning in it - it takes a true adult to do that. And most people I think have decided that acting infantile is a much more comfortable fit.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:54 AM

21. I suspect a lot of people are concerned that they may play games on election day, such as reducing

the number of voting machines in Democratic districts, or challenging people who want to vote

Excellent news

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:59 AM

23. My friends - let us not kid ourselves in our enthusiasm- GOP plans roadblocks, let us beat it

Hello:

7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail.

Why 7? All registered Democrats have to vote early, not 7. Needs to hit 60%. Mark my words! Koch Brothers and Tea Party nuts will hold the election hostage on Election Day to fabricated legal issues. Their nuts will try to "slow down the lines" in Dem districts. There will be challenges to the so-Called IDs merely to "slow" down. All this is really pointing to a Romney win. I am a staunch Dem but I know the reality. It is all about all registered Dems voting and coming out of the "non-likely" voters. Misguided younger college kids are voting Republican in Iowa because they "like" Ryan. They think Romney looks "strong." Women voters like when Romney says he will work along party lines. Our stronger Dem Senators need to come in a visible way to say that Romney proposals are out of mainstream and he is dreaming if he is thinking about working across party lines. I have not seen any Dem Senator and come out and say this strongly. Not one, no visibility.

Folks, 100% of registered Dem voters have to "vote early." Friends, let us do all we can. The GOP ground game is vastly superior, believe me. But, "yes we can" only if 100% registered Dems vote "early." Please, please, please, I hope Dem strategists are reading these emails. And, please no Axelrod as spokesperson. No more! Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him. The Big Dog needs to be in all states. Pres. Obama, please forget egos. To govern, you have to win. Winning is everything and we want it legally and cleanly.

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Response to kansasobama (Reply #23)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:14 AM

31. Send the Big Dawg!

Couldn't agree with you more on your point:

"Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him."

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:10 AM

30. These numbers are correct. Pollsters who forecast say...

In presidential election years, watch for:

1) who is winning the voter registration drives in which states <here>
2) how heavy the turnout is (as the thread headline states)

Democrats are winning both in the key swing states.

Keep enthusiasm up and get people to vote!

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:00 PM

33. And Romney leads among voters who already voted twice.

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Response to zonkers (Reply #33)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:58 PM

38. Good one.

Also, he is losing in his home state of MassaMichiHampshire.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 12:27 PM

34. Early ballots ...

 

... are sealed until election day. How can anyone know we are ahead at this point?

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Response to ip5683 (Reply #34)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:00 PM

35. Because it's a poll. People were asked who they voted for.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:14 PM

36. Thank you, Hissyspit for the good news.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:49 PM

37. I'm voting for Obama right now!!!

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:00 PM

39. K & R

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 04:58 PM

43. Actually, Obama is leading by over 95% among voters

the republicans caged

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:10 PM

44. This is VERY important

 

EArly voting is a cushion against the possibility of Obama losing ground in the future. Obama's lead in early voting is great news.

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Response to Hissyspit (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:59 PM

46. Paul and I will be voting this weekend...

So you can add another vote.

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