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Sat Oct 13, 2012, 10:59 AM

Romney’s Bounce Isn’t Helping in Senate Races, Polls Show

Source: New York Times

-snip-

There is little sign, however, that Mr. Romney’s rebound has translated into races for the Senate. Although Republicans have made modest gains in a few Senate races, the polls have been poor for them on the whole. Some races have already gotten away from them, while others are on the verge of being lost.

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model now gives Republicans just about a 16 percent chance of winning control of the Senate. This is a precipitous drop from just two months ago. On Aug. 19, the forecast put their odds at close to 62 percent.

Emblematic of Republicans’ problems is Florida, a state where Mr. Romney has made considerable gains in the polls and where their Senate candidate, Representative Connie Mack, had drawn nearly even this summer with the Democratic incumbent, Bill Nelson. But Mr. Mack fell behind in the polls in September, and two of the four polls published since the presidential debate had Mr. Nelson with a double-digit lead. Another poll showed Mr. Mack down by 5 points, despite giving Mr. Romney a 7-point lead in the presidential race.

The Republican candidate in Ohio, State Treasurer Josh Mandel, has followed a similar trajectory to Mr. Mack, with most surveys showing the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, with a solid lead. In Michigan, the Republican candidate, former Representative Peter Hoekstra, fell behind in the race early and now lags by double digits.

Three other races remain highly competitive but are showing the Democratic candidate with a more consistent lead in the polls.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/14/us/politics/romneys-bounce-isnt-helping-in-senate-races-polls-show.html?_r=0

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Reply Romney’s Bounce Isn’t Helping in Senate Races, Polls Show (Original post)
trailmonkee Oct 2012 OP
lalalu Oct 2012 #1
zbdent Oct 2012 #3
lalalu Oct 2012 #4
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #8
DinahMoeHum Oct 2012 #2
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #13
justiceischeap Oct 2012 #5
joanbarnes Oct 2012 #6
Harmony Blue Oct 2012 #9
Populist_Prole Oct 2012 #11
progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #7
lalalu Oct 2012 #10
Iliyah Oct 2012 #12
Mutiny In Heaven Oct 2012 #14
southmost Oct 2012 #15
Pokoyo Oct 2012 #16
lovuian Oct 2012 #17
DallasNE Oct 2012 #18
blkmusclmachine Oct 2012 #19

Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:01 AM

1. The whole bounce for Romney is questionable.

 

He got a bounce from republicans in red states. Big deal. They were republican anyway.

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Response to lalalu (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:20 AM

3. Don't forget the "liberally-biased media" proclaiming NATIONALLY that Romney cleaned

Obama's clock as the LEAD STORY the next morning.

Later on, when everybody's had their fill of talk about the debate, then the quiet voices in the "saner" "lbm" started mentioning, in almost a whisper, that Mitt lied ...

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Response to zbdent (Reply #3)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:22 AM

4. True

 

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Response to lalalu (Reply #1)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:07 PM

8. and from Gravis, which has been exposed as a fraud. nt

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:18 AM

2. Let's not get cocky, folks. Keep On Pushing.

FORWARD.

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Response to DinahMoeHum (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:06 PM

13. Who the heck is feeling cocky right now?

and frankly I hate negative motivation. Don't be complacent, don't be cocky. That's not motivation. That's just fear: be prepared for failure, just in case, you know, it happens, don't jinx... that's fear not encouragement.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:32 AM

5. Which makes me wonder about his bounce

I can't see people, who would normally vote Repub, turning away from repubs just to vote for Mittens. I don't care who you trust in polling, I don't buy that the race is this close. But heck, maybe I'm in serious denial.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 11:39 AM

6. What bounce?

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Response to joanbarnes (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:22 PM

9. Exactly it is a manufactured meme

trying to actually create a bounce.

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Response to Harmony Blue (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:49 PM

11. Exactly my thoughts too

In typical circular logic, they subtly made it an already assumed base theme to a larger point...and I call bullshit.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:06 PM

7. That's because ROmney's bounce is fake. It's been manufactured in the media by picking polls..

Using fucking GRAVIS as the first indication that Romney got a bounce, and it suddenly drove the narrative. They changed to reporting the Likely Voter number more heavily, which is not reality.... and started picking the polls to push that showed Romney getting a bounce. There is NO fucking way that anyone who would vote for ROmney, would vote for a Democratic Senator. Not happening.

The media needs a horse race desperately. They are in the business to make money from people clicking and watching their stories. I knew this was coming when I saw a headline the other day just before the first debate: "If Obama doesn't deliver at the debate, we'll finally have a horse race"

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Response to progressivebydesign (Reply #7)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:24 PM

10. You nailed it.

 

That is exactly what has been going on.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:57 PM

12. Doesn't one of the right wing polls have Mandel one point behind Brown, OH?

And Brown leading Warren by 5, in Mass? RW poll has O only up by 4 in Maine, and forth.

Now the RW polls have Mittens over O in swing states such as VA & CO. FL up, NH tied. All of which to make it look like its close.

Vote, Vote, Vote and get your family and friends out to vote. If you run across a tea bot polling solider and he or she confronts you be polite but don't take any shit!

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:32 PM

14. Soft support.

And an unprecedented gap between registered and likely voters, which brings the models into question.

A virtuous performance on Tuesday, and Obama re-takes the lead across the board.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 01:33 PM

15. questionable polls are the October surprise for this election cycle

to prepare us for the planned election theft

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:09 PM

16. Warren is actually doing very well

 

Her debate performances have been awesome.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:49 PM

17. The people are waking up to the Republican agenda

which is screw the worker poor elderly children and military

it has one agenda Greed and promoting the Rich 1%
Capitalism is dead

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:38 PM

18. Realclearpolitics

Shows a little different picture. It shows one Senate race has moved from likely Dem to leans Dem and five races have moved from leans Dem to tossup. There "no tossup" map shows a pickup of 1 seat for the GOP and the Dem's with a 53-47 edge, down from a 54-46 edge.

The State with the biggest movement toward Romney is Florida where Romney's Medicare message must have made a big dent with seniors -- the gutting $716 billion from Medicare is selling to seniors and it doesn't help that the fact checkers say Romney is half right even though not one dime is being cut from Medicare. But the fact checkers don't seem to understand or care that the sole reason Medicare compensation can be reduced is because providers don't have as much uninsured care to offset -- care that is partially paid for by Medicare.

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Response to trailmonkee (Original post)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 08:43 PM

19. Was Romney's bounce faked ??

Hmmm.

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