HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » Poll: Significant Post-De...
Introducing Discussionist: A new forum by the creators of DU

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:54 PM

Poll: Significant Post-Debate Shift Seen In North Carolina

Source: TPM

President Obama leads Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in the key swing state of North Carolina 46 percent to Romney's 45 percent, according to a new poll released Friday from High Point University (HPU).

The poll, which surveyed 605 likely voters from Sept. 29-Oct. 10, shows the raced tightened after the presidential date on Oct. 3. Prior to the debate, HPU showed Obama with a 49 percent to 40 percent advantage over Romney, but Romney saw a 49 percent to 43 percent lead from Oct. 4-10.

Read more: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/poll-significant-post-debate-shift-seen-in-north

17 replies, 5163 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 17 replies Author Time Post
Reply Poll: Significant Post-Debate Shift Seen In North Carolina (Original post)
DonViejo Oct 2012 OP
still_one Oct 2012 #1
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #3
MidwestTransplant Oct 2012 #4
Andy Stanton Oct 2012 #6
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #8
MidwestTransplant Oct 2012 #12
ncav53 Oct 2012 #2
ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2012 #5
Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #7
SleeplessinSoCal Oct 2012 #9
Iliyah Oct 2012 #10
think_critically Oct 2012 #11
Lex Oct 2012 #13
Ford_Prefect Oct 2012 #14
Lex Oct 2012 #15
Ford_Prefect Oct 2012 #16
glacierbay Oct 2012 #17

Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 04:56 PM

1. It will get even better by next week. We owe Joe Biden a lot

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to still_one (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:06 PM

3. I think you're misreading the story...

The "debate" in this case was the presidential one -- all polling was completed before Biden-Ryan. The pre-(presidential-)numbers were favorable to Obama, but the post-debate ones were dismal. The implication is that, if the vote were held today, Romney would win easily.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:08 PM

4. Read it again. It says Obama is coming back.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MidwestTransplant (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:14 PM

6. It's up to Obama

If he has two good debates and hammers Romney like Biden did Ryan, Obama will win North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa. He'll get close to matching his margin in 08.

If not, he's toast.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to MidwestTransplant (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:25 PM

8. I think YOU need to "read it again"...

The poll ran 9/29-10/10 (why a two-week tracker for a single state, I can't say), and ended two days before the VP debate. The numbers were reported as follows:

9/29-10/3: O 49% R 40%
(10/3: debate held in evening)
10/4-10:10: R 49% O 43%

When you combine the two polling sub-periods, you get an average of O 46% R 45%, but that's only because of Obama's strong numbers in the first, pre-debate part of the polling period. The clear implication is that the state of the race, currently, would be a lot closer to the post-debate numbers (R+6) than the would the pre-debate numbers (O+9).

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:32 PM

12. You're right, my bad.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:13 PM

5. These polls are all over the place

I don't believe either candidate has more than a few point lead in NC.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:23 PM

7. Where's TroyD?!!! Come on buddy!!!

Can't believe you didn't immediately show up in THIS thread. That's just not like you, bro!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 05:48 PM

9. It's an uptick for Obama. That's the good take away.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:18 PM

10. O is coming back on some of the National polls

which will pour over into the swing back states. He is coming back to pre-debate status.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 06:19 PM

11. Don't know about this one

 


I'm in NC and Obama is still running ads. There polling must say something at least somewhat positive but these polls are all over the place. We need to see what happens on Monday tbh.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DonViejo (Original post)

Fri Oct 12, 2012, 07:38 PM

13. As of October, North Carolina had registered 786,560 more Democrats than Republicans.

Obama won NC statewide by only 14,000 votes in 2008.


( @jeremybird breaks it down: http://OFA.BO/EMRVXb )

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Lex (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 06:17 AM

14. Yes, but they have to VOTE democratic too.

There are many here in NC who call themselves Democrats but will vote the other way on issues and candidates. This is especially true about President versus Governor races. Obama has strong but not overwhelming numbers here depending on whose poll you read and when. Not so for Walter Dalton.

Rasmussen claims Dalton is more than 14 points behind McCrory. In this case Rasmussen may be right for once. Wonder Bread news media strikes again avoiding anything that looks like a hard questioning of McCrory and other North Carolina Tea Party thugs. McCrory is a knock off of Scott Walker and has plans to eliminate state government in all but name in NC. Far too many voters have little idea who is paying McCrory or what he really plans to do. If they did he couldn't get elected Dog Catcher.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Ford_Prefect (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 12:29 PM

15. Well of course. Newly registered Democratic voters

are not like the old school southern "dixiecrat" Democrats, which were basically modern day racist-leaning republicans calling themselves democrats. Newly registered democrats wouldn't have that same confusion.









Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Lex (Reply #15)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:23 PM

16. Unfortunately there are far too many voters here who believe both parties to be equally dubious.

There are also more than enough of the "old school" democrats in rural areas of the state to dent the value of newly registered voters. Blue Dogs they are and they tend to vote for conservative candidates and issues. They have a distorted view of "traditional values" that is not as severe nor as strongly racist as the Tea Party. They have not been supportive of progressive goals and candidates as one would expect of Democrats when it comes to local and state elections. They are also a bit blind when it comes to progressive critiques of how bad things are or may yet become.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Ford_Prefect (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 13, 2012, 02:34 PM

17. Same way here in MO.

 

The cities are prominently Dem while the small towns and rural areas are overwhelmingly Repub.
But we're working to change that. one vote at a time.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread