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Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:20 PM

Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Todayís Gallup Numbers

Source: The New Republic

Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Todayís Gallup Numbers
Nate Cohn
October 9, 2012 | 1:32 pm

While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallupís tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallupís most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the presidentís direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.



Similarly, Gallupís 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.

Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but itís consistent with the movement in Rasmussenís tracker, Obamaís strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussenís Sunday polls, and PPPís tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, thereís a chance that Romneyís impressive bounce might prove short-lived.

Read more: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108344/ominous-sign-romney-in-todays-gallup-numbers#

42 replies, 11744 views

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Reply Potentially Ominous Sign For Romney In Todayís Gallup Numbers (Original post)
kpete Oct 2012 OP
bamacrat Oct 2012 #1
BlueCaliDem Oct 2012 #10
regnaD kciN Oct 2012 #30
thelarge Oct 2012 #2
RDANGELO Oct 2012 #3
AFD Oct 2012 #6
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #16
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #19
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #21
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #22
Jackpine Radical Oct 2012 #35
wordpix Oct 2012 #40
MADem Oct 2012 #4
CitizenPatriot Oct 2012 #27
Berlum Oct 2012 #5
LW1977 Oct 2012 #7
barbtries Oct 2012 #8
JohnnyRingo Oct 2012 #9
Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #12
titaniumsalute Oct 2012 #11
Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #13
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #17
nolabear Oct 2012 #23
12AngryBorneoWildmen Oct 2012 #28
Vietnameravet Oct 2012 #31
renate Oct 2012 #32
Scootaloo Oct 2012 #14
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #20
Cha Oct 2012 #25
Robeysays Oct 2012 #36
rtracey Oct 2012 #15
CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #18
Kingofalldems Oct 2012 #24
PD Turk Oct 2012 #26
ginnyinWI Oct 2012 #29
tclambert Oct 2012 #33
ffr Oct 2012 #34
Coyotl Oct 2012 #37
wtmusic Oct 2012 #38
Kteachums Oct 2012 #39
toby jo Oct 2012 #41
PATRICK Oct 2012 #42

Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:25 PM

1. Nate also has POTUS up so...

I guess the sky stayed up eh?

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Response to bamacrat (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:43 PM

10. Yep.

Can you hear Corporate Media gnashing teeth and sobbing?

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Response to bamacrat (Reply #1)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:15 PM

30. Up where?

538 dropped Obama's odds to 71.4%, down from 74.8 %yesterday and 78-something% two days ago.

Still, if this information holds up, Obama's odds are likely to improve over the next week.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:26 PM

2. Bye, Mittens!

 

The lies are coming home to roost!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:27 PM

3. and Romney is going on CNN tonight.

There is no way he would be going on CNN if he thought he had the upper hand.

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:36 PM

6. Latest Breaking News (Forum)

I agree, he's running scare again.

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:49 PM

16. Romney only goes on CNN when he's in hair-on-fire crisis mode...

Romney is terrible in interviews. Also, he clearly avoids interviews because he can be asked hundreds of questions that would cause him to unravel (his tax returns, his plans to voucherize medicare, his debate lies, the 47 percent comment, etc.). There are enormous potential pitfalls to doing a CNN interview.

He must really be running scared.

If this was a guy who handled big interviews well, it would be less of a gamble. However, Romney tends to not do so well in interviews. He avoided the Sunday talk shows for months--even in the Republican primary. This is a guy who likes to be a bully (and apparently a liar) behind a podium. He doesn't like to be challenged.

You can bet, as you said, that Romney no longer believes he has the upper hand.

Also--I think his "stellar" debate performance gave him some unearned confidence. He might feel a bit emboldened right now because he erroneously believes that America is in love with him right now. He might be in reckless mode.

Let's hope he unravels and stumbles on CNN for all the world to see. Would love it.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:55 PM

19. Their internal polls must show what the tracking polls do.

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Response to Dawson Leery (Reply #19)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:59 PM

21. Yep, that he's slipping....and isn't it typical of narcissist Romney to...

...believe that the answer is...MORE ROMNEY!!!

They just need to see MORE of me! They loved me during the debate. And now they want more!

I'll give them more then!

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #21)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:00 PM

22. Perhaps they realize that Romney's lies and flip flopping during the first debate

may come back to haunt him in the following weeks.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #21)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:37 PM

35. More Willard!

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Response to RDANGELO (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 10:42 AM

40. thanks for that, will try to watch it

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:31 PM

4. Ooooooooh, noooooooooooo Mister Bill!!!!

There's a little cottage industry of gleeful doom-and-gloomers who have been smearing turdish negativity across this board that will be sorely disheartened by this news. Those who delight in seeing Obama on the ropes will have to find a new line of bullshit to prosecute!

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Response to MADem (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:55 PM

27. whatever will they do?

Most fun watching them tell people that they were blind Obama bots who refused to accept the UTTER FAILURE AND DOOM of Obama, even tho the internals of the polls showed right away that Romney did not make gains where he needed to and it was a short term bounce.


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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:35 PM

5. Willard's lies caught up to him

Americans greatly dislike the lies Romney, Ryan, and the other Republicans so glibly spout.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:36 PM

7. I know right? The first debate determines the outcome of an election...

....Just ask President Mondale, President Perot and President Kerry.. Oh wait..

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:37 PM

8. for gawds sake

the man does nothing but lie! how could anybody vote for him?!

waaaa

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:41 PM

9. I'm sorry, I refuse to believe people "like" Romney

I'd also question the scenario where a likely voter would watch the debate and say "I was going to vote for Obama, but now I'm going with Romney". What kind of wishy-washy citizen is going to do that? Is this the type that changes toothpaste every other week because they saw a new commercial that promises "a brighter smile and fewer cavities"?

Still, when it was McCain four years ago I could understand why some people liked the candidate. I'm sure he loves his country, is generally personable, and has a lengthy record of public service, but if someone now tells me they really like Mitt Romney and they think he'd be a great leader of the country, I call them a racist liar. Romney is simply a vote against Obama.

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Response to JohnnyRingo (Reply #9)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:51 PM

12. I know of a few Repugs who sat out the last election who are now with Romneyboy.

I have many problems with John McCain. That fact does not negate his superiority when compared against Romney. As you said, he has along record of public service. McCain also won the first debate based upon his true beliefs.

For those Repugs who voted for Bush twice, sat out 2008, and are now voting for Romney, they are casting their vote against Obama, against the black man. That is telling of their character.

ABC poll finds Obama's numbers on the rise:
http://www.politicususa.com/obama-favorability-soars-romney-remains-popular-nominee-1980.html

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:48 PM

11. One note however...

These are registered voters...not likely voters. Likely voters are much closer.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:25 PM

13. Hopefully the results of the debate will be like that girl you picked up at the bar,.,.,.

seems really exciting the first night but after the thrill ( or alcohol) wears off you realize YIKES!! you need to get out FAST!!

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Response to Vietnameravet (Reply #13)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:52 PM

17. What a great, great analogy!

Very astute analogy there--comparing Romney to the girl you pick up in a bar.

I love that. A great editorial/op-ed could be written with that theme, for sure!

Let's just hope that Obama (and Biden on Thursday), do the equivalent of going into that dark bar--and flipping on the lights---for everyone to see the real ugliness!!!

We've all been there...

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #17)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:19 PM

23. More like that guy you let go home with you from the bar.

You know, the one who told you all those things that sounded SO good even though you could've sworn you heard him talkIng to his buddies earlier and sounding like a jerk. But he was so forceful, and he swore you'd be better off with him, that he knew people and would treat you and your family with nothing but respect. And then when you were alone he screwed you, called you a whore, took your wallet and went back to the bar to run up a tab on your credit card and tell his friends how you we're beneath him. That guy.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #23)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:55 PM

28. Was that you? Who has a $50 limit on their credit card?

Just kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding.

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Response to nolabear (Reply #23)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:16 PM

31. Seriously??

I never heard of a man doing anything like that.. Where did you get that idea?

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Response to nolabear (Reply #23)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:30 PM

32. that is such a perfect analogy

It really is.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:28 PM

14. Funny, to hear DU'ers tell it, Obama is doomed, we're all doomed, best to just give up.

Game over man, GAME OVER!

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #14)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:56 PM

20. Anyone who says that isn't thinking...

There is still so much time left.

Obama is a fighter. I would say that he does his best work when he is in fighting mode.

I think we will see a big change in Obama.

Remember how Obama was during the primary with Hillary Clinton?

'Nuf said.

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Response to CoffeeCat (Reply #20)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:33 PM

25. Those who are saying that don't know

shit about politics. But, they do know how to set their hair on FIRE.

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Response to Scootaloo (Reply #14)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:48 AM

36. lulz at game over man.

 

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

This is exactly what they sound like. bill paxton from aliens.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:33 PM

15. CNN - the new FOX

CNN is becoming another Fox news. Ashley Banfield seems to lean repub, and Wolf Blitzler seems just to lean..... Romney will get the easy questions like ABC and David Gregory on NBC.

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Response to rtracey (Reply #15)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:54 PM

18. I have a bit more hope for CNN...

Everyone hates Blitzer because he challenges both sides. He also lets both sides spew their talking points. So both sides are never happy with him. However, I think he does go after people and I don't think he likes to be known as the kow tower who allows politicians to remain unchallenged.

If it is Blitzer--I think we can expect that he may go after Romney. It's so easy!!! And of us could interview Romney and make him wet his pants! All you have to do is ask him basic questions about the lies he told during the debate. It's low-hanging fruit people--easily picked.

Ohhhh..I hope Romney gets his just desserts with this CNN interview.

And Ashley Banfield is a lefty for sure!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:20 PM

24. Uh oh--DU Cave invaders won't like this one

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:52 PM

26. shit

That Pew poll the other day did everything but walk up to houses with confederate flags in the front lawn and knock on the doors and Rmoney couldn't even pull 50% with that crowd. The polls aren't worrying me right now.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 06:03 PM

29. what I think happened

Nobody likes Mitt. Then Debate One happens, and he looks good to the media punditry. The average RW Repub doesn't understand the talk about economics, but since the punditry thought Mitt won, they perked up and thought to themselves that maybe he could win after all.

Repubs love to vote for and be on the side of the winner, even if they personally don't like the candidate. So they start responding positively when polled.

Then the excitement dies down, and with it, Mitt's approval ratings. Some voters might even have listened to all the lies being debunked. So they respond negatively.

In short, the bump was entirely a creation of the media. And no substance.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 08:38 PM

33. I've been expecting a slow reaction to Romney's lying.

The immediate takeaway was he looked OK during the debate. But as people start going over the things he said, they'll start saying, "Wait a minute, WTF?" It may take a while for it to sink in. But do you really want to vote for someone who lies THAT much and changes major policy positions from day to day? Sooner or later, someone will put together a video of Romney debating Romney debating Romney debating Romney and make it clear he doesn't really stand for anything.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:09 PM

34. 7.8

The only number we need to know.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:58 AM

37. The write as if every poll was reliable

Take, for example, Pew

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 10:30 AM

38. Great way to start the day.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 10:34 AM

39. This makes a lady with Cancer feel so much better!

Everyday those polls show Mitt gaining ground I am worried. I need Obama to win for my health. Go President Obama!

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Wed Oct 10, 2012, 03:02 PM

41. Hey ! This means another 'I did not say that' video - soon to post.

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Response to kpete (Original post)

Thu Oct 11, 2012, 11:03 AM

42. One comparison is an interesting gauge

of many polar opposites and what real effect it has on elections.

Mondale makes major damning speech promising new taxes. Regan is a shoe in with most press support or acquiescence although major rumblings about reality and mental competence run silent run shallow. Reagan stumbles scarily through first debate while rational and energetic Mondale pretty well clobbers him.

The aftermath is more supportive of the President but worried. Real polls do not move. Minds already made up. Mondale sees the handwriting on the wall and lies and really pitiful forays into sloganeering that seem to have defeated the ready to self-destruct Gary Hart offer no hope for his cause. He looks defeated and Haggard at second debate while Reagan looks "speeded" up all the way to an incomplete finish. The happy media pounds the nails in the coffin.

Now armed with media blank checks and a blanked out record(even as he speaks contradictions are put "behind him") a self blasted 47% Romney rides the first debate that only matters in a vague sort of contest way. Voters minds are equally still set in stone. Only this time the President is competent and not a real loser, the other side utterly energized by lying and sloganeering and the media happily taking their side.

Where was the media fear of losing election ratings and ad revenue then? Whatever the excuse they bow to the right, to put it most politely. This has become an interesting comparison in reversal and how powerful lies and the fraudulent corporate news community are in actually changing sensible minds.

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