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Mon Oct 8, 2012, 03:16 PM

Afghanistan 'sliding towards collapse'

Source: The Guardian

The police and army in an increasingly violent Afghanistan will struggle to secure the country when foreign forces leave and the people face a corrupt presidential election in 2014, the Red Cross and a thinktank have warned.

At stake is the limited and fragile stability that has insulated Kabul and most other urban areas from more than a decade of escalating aggression since the US invasion. There are growing fears the country could face a full-blown civil war after Nato troops hand over security to the Afghan police and army, and leave.

"Time is running out," said Candace Rondeaux of the International Crisis Group thinktank, in a blunt report about the handover from coalition to Afghan troops. "Steps toward a stable transition must begin now to prevent a precipitous slide toward state collapse.

"Plagued by factionalism and corruption, Afghanistan is far from ready to assume responsibility for security when US and Nato forces withdraw in 2014."

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/oct/08/afghanistan-collapse-red-cross

30 replies, 5865 views

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Arrow 30 replies Author Time Post
Reply Afghanistan 'sliding towards collapse' (Original post)
alp227 Oct 2012 OP
Vincardog Oct 2012 #1
Comrade_McKenzie Oct 2012 #2
dipsydoodle Oct 2012 #3
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #4
dipsydoodle Oct 2012 #5
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #6
Posteritatis Oct 2012 #8
dipsydoodle Oct 2012 #9
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #10
davidpdx Oct 2012 #24
gasser85 Oct 2012 #12
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #13
FarCenter Oct 2012 #29
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #30
Posteritatis Oct 2012 #7
Poll_Blind Oct 2012 #11
Spitfire of ATJ Oct 2012 #14
triplepoint Oct 2012 #15
Socal31 Oct 2012 #16
triplepoint Oct 2012 #17
Nihil Oct 2012 #21
Odin2005 Oct 2012 #22
Vidar Oct 2012 #18
cbrer Oct 2012 #19
4th law of robotics Oct 2012 #25
ieoeja Oct 2012 #28
Franker65 Oct 2012 #20
Odin2005 Oct 2012 #23
lalalu Oct 2012 #26
FiveGoodMen Oct 2012 #27

Response to alp227 (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:23 PM

1. This sounds like an issue for the Afghans to work out to me. PS they Don't want our "help".

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Response to Vincardog (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:36 PM

2. We're just making it worse, if anything. nt

 

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:47 PM

3. Similar to when the US went in

but just a whole lot worse. At least it wasn't worse when the Russians pulled out.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 04:55 PM

4. Check out the topography....



Is it any wonder that the country is divided?

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:01 PM

5. Well I never.

I didn't realise they had a border with China. That's useful.

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Response to dipsydoodle (Reply #5)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:09 PM

6. Looks like a gerrymandered district.

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #6)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:11 PM

8. It more or less was

Britain and Russia set it up in the late 1800s to prevent their respective empires from sharing a land border for security purposes.

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Response to Posteritatis (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:12 PM

9. lol

Funny how history comes back to bite some.

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Response to Posteritatis (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:55 PM

10. Has anyone ever taken them aside and accused them of having an insecurity complex?

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:04 AM

24. It really does, doesn't it

It looks almost like the Republicans drew the map.

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:23 PM

12. China

Will China be the next Empire to invade Afghanistan? And fail!

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Response to gasser85 (Reply #12)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:31 PM

13. Why would they?

It's not like they fear a cavalry charge across the Gobi desert.

What people don't seem to get is this is where you end up after everyone tells you to get lost.

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Response to Spitfire of ATJ (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:28 PM

29. The ethnic groups are even more complex than the terrain

There is no good reason to keep the Pashtun, Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and other groups together.

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Response to FarCenter (Reply #29)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 11:03 PM

30. On the one hand you want to go "no wonder",....

....and on the other you want to have our common humanity prevail.

Republicans just want a single dictator for a pipeline deal.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 05:10 PM

7. If the place collapsed any more it'd cycle back through to pristine stability. (nt)

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Response to Posteritatis (Reply #7)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:22 PM

11. Ain't that the truth! nt

PB

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Response to Poll_Blind (Reply #11)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 08:34 PM

14. Funny how Republicans hate the idea of a strong central government here but insist on it there.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Mon Oct 8, 2012, 10:00 PM

15. I hope they take out any and all fossil fuel pipelines during the collapse

 

Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:43 AM - Edit history (4)

know what I mean????
.
.
It's ALL about fossil fuel and opium (from the poppies of course). Always has been and likely ALWAYS will be:







TAPI NATURAL GAS PIPELINE TREATY SIGNING (May 2012)

The Cabinet on May 17 gave its nod for signing of the gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) for the $7.6-billion Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline project, which would ferry gas from Turkmenistan. Unlike the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline project, TAPI has been supported by the US. A steering committee meeting of the member countries is expected to take place in Turkmenistan soon.

The import of gas is scheduled to commence after five years of the signing of GSPA. The GSPA contains all the contractual terms and conditions, including the gas price. The GSPA will be signed bilaterally between the members. Subsequent to the GSPA bids for building and operating the pipeline will be invited. Member countries of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline Project have agreed transit fee which is expected to be about 50 cents.

The transportation charges will be finalised when the project gets implemented by the consortium and all costs are known, sources privy to the development said. Transit fee is a crucial issue in such projects as invariably the country at the tail-end of the project ends up paying the maximum. However, sources said India and Pakistan will pay a uniform transit fee to Afghanistan. India would like the delivered price (landed cost) of Turkmenistan gas to be in the same range for all buyer countries – Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. India wanted that the Turkmenistan gas price should be more attractive than the current long-term contract price. Rough estimates show that the Turkmenistan gas may cost around $10/mmBtu.

The project envisages the construction of a 1,700-km-long pipeline, which would originate from Turkmenistan, travel through Afghanistan and Pakistan, before entering India. It would carry 90 mmscmd gas of which 14 mmscmd would be for Afghanistan and 38 mmscmd each for India and Pakistan.

Reference Link:
http://sunmediaonline.com/indiachronicle/jun12/infotech.html





And then there's karzai and his brother's opium business:
(Afghanistan/Pipelinestan is ALSO just a failed narco state )



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Response to triplepoint (Reply #15)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 12:25 AM

16. I'm not sure why the sure to be fighting tribes would destroy infrastructure.

It isn't like we will control Afghani oil any more than we control Iraqi oil. The real prize in Afghanistan is the precious metal reserves we uncovered a few years back. Billions if not trillions of dollars worth.

You hit the nail on the head with the poppies. We will see if the Taliban can eradicate most of it again. Unfortunately it will be at the price of all Afghans who "assisted" the occupying infidels.

I fear for them, but it is time to bring our men and women home.

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Response to Socal31 (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:26 AM

17. Civilization is Electrically-Powered Mostly by Fossil Fuel and Nuke Plants

 

Last edited Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:07 AM - Edit history (4)

Afghanistan is the pipeline and narco state that much fossil fuel pipeline is and will pass through on its way to India and other points. The pipeline network doesn't appear to be part of Afghanistan's infrastructure though. Afghanistan is to the pipeline network there as the U.S. is to the (proposed) Keystone Pipeline Network. There is no security for narco criminal/u.s. puppet karzai outside of Kabul. The country has no real sovereignty, and is essentially, a failed nation state under U.S. occupation. I've seen and read several stories about the (alleged) $1Trillion in precious gems, Rare Earth Metals, etc. and am still unconvinced that that is in fact...a fact. Saudi Arabia claims to have more potential income from precious gem riches than that from their oil reserves. I read about that, and have been told as much when I worked over there during the 1990s. So for now, Afghanistan is immediately important to the rest of the World as a fossil fuel pass-through country. Afghanistan's Mining Ministry also claims to have discovered a massive oil reserve within the country.

Thank you for reminding me of the USD$1T in valuable minerals claimed to be there as well. It reminds me of the fabled city of El Dorado that the Conquistadores sought as they hacked and slashed their way through the Americas searching for it. Sometimes it doesn't always turn out well for the Conquistadore....


1543: Pedro de Valdivia, a dreaded Conquistador, was captured by Native Americans and then executed by pouring molten gold down his throat to satisfy his thirst for treasures.



Looks like another age of conquest is underway under the guise of a phony war on terrorism. Wherever there is something of value that we want, terrorism just seems to sprout up...like spontaneous generation...

"If you draw a map that connects the dots between all of the bases that we have done since the Cold War ended, what You see is American military hegemony - covering 90 per cent of global energy resources."
-Karen Kwiatkowski
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Oil_Factor




Reference Link:
http://www.theforbiddenknowledge.com/hardtruth/oil_war.htm


Instead of a Papal Bull (decree by the Pope) this time, we go in chasing down terrorists and terrorist sympathizers. Now that the TAPI Natural Gas Pipeline Agreement has been signed (May 2012), it's time to give Afghanistan back to its people...sort of....It sure looks like deja vu all over again....or in the immortal words of two-time Congressional Medal of Honor winner Major General Smedley Butler:

“War is just a racket. A racket is best described, I believe, as something that is not what it seems to the majority of people. Only a small inside group knows what it is about. It is conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the masses.

I helped make Mexico, especially Tampico, safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefits of Wall Street. The record of racketeering is long. I helped purify Nicaragua for the international banking house of Brown Brothers in 1909-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for American sugar interests in 1916. In China I helped to see to it that Standard Oil went its way unmolested.

There isn't a trick in the racketeering bag that the military gang is blind to. It has its "finger men" to point out enemies, its "muscle men" to destroy enemies, its "brain men" to plan war preparations, and a "Big Boss" Super-Nationalistic-Capitalism."

Reference Link:
http://www.rationalrevolution.net/war/major_general_smedley_butler_usm.htm







-Thanks again for your post about the Afghani mineral find.

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Response to triplepoint (Reply #17)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 08:07 AM

21. Finally, a punishment to fit the crime for Wall Street, Halliburton, et al ..

> 1543: Pedro de Valdivia, a dreaded Conquistador, was captured by Native Americans and
> then executed by pouring molten gold down his throat to satisfy his thirst for treasures.




The rest of your post was bang on point - especially the Smedley Butler quote - thanks!



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Response to Nihil (Reply #21)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:53 AM

22. An eastern king also did that to a Roman governor in the 1st Century BC.

Mithridates of Pontus incited a Greek rebellion against Rome, and killed the captured governor by pouring molten gold down his throat, making a similar comment about a thirst for money.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:19 AM

18. Been in that condition for 3500 years. Not exactly "Late Breaking News".

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:37 AM

19. These are activities filtered through Western eyes.

 

Afghanistan is inherently unstable to our way of organizing a society. Their view points and perspectives are very different than "traditional" western values.

They will never (some say "never say never", I'm saying NEVER) become as we are, and adopt our ways. Kabul is a vibrant city of 4 million plus. They don't call Afghanistan the "Graveyard of Empires" for nothing.

Perhaps (big maybe) we could have succeeded with a simpler strategy of locating and removing Bin Laden, dropping a few billion, and then getting out. Some of the Taliban were still with us at the outset because of the Stinger missile trade. If we would've let them continue to run drugs and dominate their own society (sorry liberators), they would have fought beside us. But we'll never know. We're the ones injecting the currency and Western morality into this nation, and getting screwed worse every day.

I just watched a 300+ person violent demonstration because the city changed the name of a frickin' school. And butcher a cow next to a major road.

You ain't in Kansas any more, Dorothy...

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Response to cbrer (Reply #19)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:08 AM

25. We probably would have had better luck putting our resources towards securing Kabul

 

and a few of the larger cities. And use raids and air strikes to prevent any large opposition from coalescing in the boonies.

Then once they have a decent society organized and a reliable military established begin slowly moving out, village by village, to reclaim and re-civilize the savages from a strong base of support.

It would however be the work of generations and the Afghans would have to actually do most of it themselves.

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Response to cbrer (Reply #19)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:25 PM

28. They call it "Graveyard of Empires" because someone wrote that line in a poem.


Afghanistan has been ruled by external empires for all but about 150 years of the last 2500 years. And most of those empires controlled Afghanistan for longer than the United States has existed. Which is about a century longer than Afghanistan has ever been empire free.

And how did Afghanistan finally get rid of those empires after centuries of rule? Another external empire took over!

I don't believe they have ever successfully revolted against one of these empires without external help. Without Russian help it is unlikely they would have gotten rid of the Brits at the time they did (this was before the British Empire as in retreat). Without American aid it is unlikely they would have gotten rid of the Soviets (who were assisting another party of Afghans anyway).

And we certainly never intended on staying as evidenced by how quickly we pulled most of our troops out of Afghanistan and went galivanting off to Iraq.


The United States has seen more empires come and go in a shorter time than Afghanistan. Having seen the Iroquoi, French, British and Spanish empires removed in a single century the United States has better claim to "Graveyard of Empires"!

People put way too much stock into a poem.


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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 05:50 AM

20. Always was and always will be unstable

The structure of tribal society in Afghanistan cannot be changed - they will always be divided and unstable. It will sad to pull out after so many NATO troops died...especially if the Taliban regain control. More sensible approach would involve taking out the troops and extending a drone offensive over central Asia.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 09:54 AM

23. Collapse? the country has never been "together".

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 10:38 AM

26. Their problem not ours.

 

We should just pack our bags, wish them luck, and don't look back. We have put more into their country than into our own. Good riddance.

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Response to alp227 (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:12 PM

27. Guess we're never allowed to leave

That is the point, isn't it?

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