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Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:34 AM

Unemployment rate decreases to 7.8% in September; payroll employment rises by 114,000

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by OKNancy (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2012


The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, and total nonfarm
payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care and in transportation and warehousing
but changed little in most other major industries.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.
For the first 8 months of the year, the rate held within a narrow range of 8.1
and 8.3 percent. The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by
456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.3 percent),
adult women (7.0 percent), and whites (7.0 percent) declined over the month.
The unemployment rates for teenagers (23.7 percent), blacks (13.4 percent), and
Hispanics (9.9 percent) were little changed. The jobless rate for Asians, at
4.8 percent (not seasonally adjusted), fell over the year. (See tables A-1, A-2,
and A-3.)
....

The number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks declined by 302,000 over
the month to 2.5 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for
27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.8 million and accounted for 40.1
percent of the unemployed. (See table A-12.)



Read more: Link: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm



Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with the ADP estimate.

ADP, for employment in September:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014254238
U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP

U.S. Private-Sector Employment Increased by 162,000 Jobs in September, According to ADP National Employment Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 162,000 from August to September, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gains in previous months were revised lower: The July increase was reduced by 17,000 to an increase of 156,000, while the August increase was reduced by 12,000 to an increase of 189,000.

Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 144,000 in September, down from 175,000 in August. Employment in the private, good-producing sector added 18,000 jobs in the September. Manufacturing employment rose 4,000, while construction employment rose 10,000, the strongest since March when mild winter weather was boosting construction activity. The financial services sector added 7,000 jobs in September, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly gain.


BLS, for employment in August:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221739
August payroll employment rises (+96,000); unemployment rate edges down (8.1%)

An increase of 96,000 is really lackluster. It's not just lackluster, but, as the first response says, "disappointing." It's half the ADP estimate. Here is a quote from yesterday's ADP news release:

August 2012 Report

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 201,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from June to July was revised up from the initial estimate of 163,000 to 173,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 185,000 in August, up from 156,000 in July. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector added 16,000 jobs in August. Manufacturing employment rose 3,000, following an increase of 6,000 in July.


ADP, for employment in August:

The ADP National Employment Report August 2012

BLS, for employment in July:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289
July payroll employment rises (+163,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.3%)

ADP, for employment in July.I heard an estimate earlier this morning that the growth in employment would be on the order of 100,000.

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

BLS, for employment in June:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

Of particular importance for the BLS estimate for June was this article from that day’s Wall Street Journal.

Unemployment Line Longer Than It Looks‎

AHEAD OF THE TAPE
Updated July 5, 2012, 7:26 p.m. ET

By SPENCER JAKAB Here is a statistic for the politically inclined: No incumbent president has won re-election with an unemployment rate above 7.2% since the Great Depression.

Economists expect Friday's release of June employment data will show 95,000 new jobs added. Meantime, the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. That may be bittersweet or just plain bitter depending on one's political slant, but it is difficult to reconcile today's rate with past periods.

The headline unemployment rate has been flattered by the number of people no longer counted in the denominator used to calculate it. For example, a comparison of jobs data between the start and end of 2011 shows the ranks of the unemployed fell by 822,000 while the number of people not in the labor force grew by a larger 1.24 million. The unemployment rate fell by 0.6 percentage points over that time to 8.5%.

In fact, the participation rate—the share of the working-age population either working or looking for work—has fallen by 2.3 percentage points over the four years through May to 63.8%, a three-decade low. Nearly 88 million people—about seven times the ranks of the officially unemployed—aren't part of the headline rate's calculation.


Hmmm. Give that some thought. Also, when May'’s figures were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

ADP, for employment in June:

ADP jobs up 176,000 (for June)

BLS, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014133487
May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014113023
Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635553
Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635507
BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002635837
ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014111465
U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)
March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man

One more thing:

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

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Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 26 replies Author Time Post
Reply Unemployment rate decreases to 7.8% in September; payroll employment rises by 114,000 (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Oct 2012 OP
Kingofalldems Oct 2012 #1
davidpdx Oct 2012 #2
Shuhered Oct 2012 #18
oliverrams1 Oct 2012 #3
julian09 Oct 2012 #4
oliverrams1 Oct 2012 #8
reformist2 Oct 2012 #5
Shuhered Oct 2012 #14
Lucky Luciano Oct 2012 #6
skeewee08 Oct 2012 #7
dipsydoodle Oct 2012 #9
Shuhered Oct 2012 #10
Odin2005 Oct 2012 #11
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Oct 2012 #12
Shuhered Oct 2012 #20
DemKittyNC Oct 2012 #13
horsedoc Oct 2012 #15
Shuhered Oct 2012 #23
demwing Oct 2012 #16
jsr Oct 2012 #17
adigal Oct 2012 #19
Loudestlib Oct 2012 #21
Savannahmann Oct 2012 #22
bamacrat Oct 2012 #24
muriel_volestrangler Oct 2012 #25
OKNancy Oct 2012 #26

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:36 AM

1. K and R for all the Cave visitors

Hahahaha!

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Response to Kingofalldems (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:42 AM

2. WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOo

I just let out a huge scream when I read this. Scared the shit out of my wife too (though she knew I was looking forward to the numbers tonight).

The hazards of living with a political junkie....

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Response to Kingofalldems (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:19 AM

18. First One To Comment KingofAllDems

Yay for this good news. But I wanted to be 1st to comment, not 10th, uh dang. Go Cardinals tonight--I don't love you like I love the White Sox, but I really am no fan of the Braves ( Chipper notwithstanding of course, what a stud).

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:47 AM

3. WHAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:49 AM

4. Joe Scab is all upset AT THE NUMBER, can't get negetive enough.

 

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Response to julian09 (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:59 AM

8. Joe

Is saying that the numbers can't be correct! What a jerk. This is the best news for the country and the President. We are Americans and we don't give up we keep pushing forward in good times and bad.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:50 AM

5. Republitards are having meltdowns over this <3 <3 <3

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Response to reformist2 (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:14 AM

14. Melting, Melting, Melting, Meltando!!!

Wow! Impressive turnaround, Mr. President. I was fearful that the number might be lower. No worries. Had we only added (47),000 new jobs ( hint hint), one would have justly hoped that you would remember that number for the next debate as a cue of sorts. I trust the Joe Biden won't forget this nice report when he is on stage with Ayn Rand's number 1 fan, Paul Ryan.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:53 AM

6. NFP exactly as expected at 114K, but revisions added 86K, so good number!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 08:54 AM

7. 7.8% that's what i'm talking about!!!!!!!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:04 AM

9. Sad but true - unfortunate duplicate LBN

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:07 AM

10. HAPPY RE-ELECTION, Mr. President

So this last jobs report clearly sets the stage for an upstream battle for Salmonite Mitt Romney. Jobs reports, as far as history goes, always trumps a good ( or bad ) debate performance. As the new break to less than 8% unemployment sinks in, attention will justly be shifted back to those pesky fact-checkers, bane of some GOP sideline staffer's existence since someone's inelegant comment regarding the need for even checking those li'l ol' facts ( shun them ). When all is said and done, the facts (funny thing, them facts, don't ya know??) will speak for themselves regardless of anyone's efforts to spin them one way or another.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:10 AM

11. WOOHOO!!!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:11 AM

12. The sound you just heard is Mitt Romney shitting himself.

Can't wait to hear how Willard spins this.

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Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Reply #12)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:22 AM

20. Magic Diaper

Hopefully he will have changed his soiled Magic Under-Pamper. And what kind of expression, pray tell, will we see on Mr. Priebus's face?!?! You know Priebus, the man who looks like one of the evil-doers from Raiders of the Lost Ark. Vote!!!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:11 AM

13. But the numbers are wrong!

The President is cooking the books!

Freepers Meltdown is a beautiful thing!

CNN right now is trying to make the numbers look suspicious and false, what a load of shit!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:15 AM

15. It was all strategy

President Obama and his staff do not do anything unplanned. We know Obama can be a fiesty debator, I think the strategy was give him enough rope and let him hang himself, which he did. Romney spouted so many lies he is going to have a hell of a time the next debate when the President starts to detail them one by one. Romney will be on defense the entire debate, just watch.

Awesome news on job report btw +1 rec

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Response to horsedoc (Reply #15)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:25 AM

23. Devil Wear Prada--And Surprise!!!!

Yes even Lucipher watched Mitt weave his most ambitious web of lies and was heard saying, "Dayum!!!!!"

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:16 AM

16. Are these the revised numbers?

any chance we will find out on Tuesday that we're back up to 8+% ???

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:17 AM

17. Obama wins re-election. Take it to the bank.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:19 AM

19. Romney: Anne, where's my Maalox

Or, maybe: Anne, get me the cyanide!!

What is good for America is bad for Republicans.

This is much more important than a debate. It negates all the negatives Romney threw at Obama about the economy. This will impress low information voters.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:23 AM

21. Remember

If the President's job bill had passed, this number would be lower!

If the Republicans in congress had not set out to defeat this President, this number would be lower!

If Republican governors had not gone on a firing spree, this number would be loser!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:24 AM

22. Great News

Take that Romney

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:25 AM

24. Great news regardless of its impact on the election.

But even better news for PBO!

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:26 AM

25. Locking - duplicate thread

by only a minute, and I'm sure you were composing the OP while the other thread was posted, so there was no way you could know. But we do try to keep LBN with just one thread per story, and this other one was posted just before:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014256565

Please continue discussion there.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Fri Oct 5, 2012, 09:26 AM

26. so sorry, but locking

THis is a duplicate thread

I urge you to repost all this here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014256565

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