Turkey's parliament authorises military action in Syria

and that is in the absense of knowing who fired the mortars.

I'm wondering if Turkey is playing into the hands of the Kurds a substantial number of which are in the rebel forces. If so they may be shooting themselves in the foot.

accident" which will not happen again."

Sounds like one of Syria's main ally's believes the mortar fire came from Syrian army. Russia is not telling Assad to deny that his military was the source of the shelling into Turkey.

The now current situation of Turkey holding still on the issue providing there are no similar incidents prevents the Syrian government forces from firing toward the rebel controlled border post with Turkey. That means that arms can be run across the border to the rebels almost uninterupted now.

I mean if this restricts Assad from attacking the rebels there...well let me get out my world's tiniest violin. I can't blame Turkey in the slightest for prioritizing their own civilians over a brutal dictator.

and for the time being has settled for "don't do it again"

I simply pointed out the convenience to the rebels of the border post being a relative safe area and it don't change the fact that I smell a rat here - there remains no confirmation of which side actually fired the mortars.

Mr Atalay, Turkey's deputy prime minister says Syria has admitted it was responsible for the shelling that killed five civilians in Turkey and has formally apologized for the deaths.

He said that Syria has reassured the UN that "such an incident will not occur again".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9585945/Turkey-shells-Syria-live.html

Syrian officials could still come out and deny that they admitted to or apologized for anything, but so far they have not.

but they both do.

Turkey and Syria were allies and trading partners before Assad started with the repression of protests in early 2011.

Turkey Reaches Out to Its Neighbors: Rapprochement and Cooperation 2002-2011

The PKK issue brought the two countries to the brink of war in the 1990s, before Syria defused the tension in 1998 by kicking out Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK leader it had sheltered. The stage was set for a dramatic strategic realignment that took place in the next decade under two new leaders: Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

Under Turkey’s new “zero problem policy” with its neighbors, Erdogan’s government sought investment opportunities in Syria, which was opening its state-led economy, and assurances from Damascus regarding PKK. For his part, Assad desperately needed new friends at a time of great tension with US over Syria’s role in Iraq and Lebanon. An assertive Turkey, less dependent on the US, was a perfect gateway into the world:

Diplomatic alliance: Turkey was instrumental in breaking Syria’s international isolation, paving the way for Assad’s visit to France in 2005, and brokering peace talks between Syria and Israel in 2008.

Military cooperation: Joint military manoeuvres were held in 2009, coinciding with the souring of Turkey’s ties to Israel. Steps toward cooperation in defense industry was also announced that year.

Trade: The icing on the cake was the 2007 Free Trade Agreement that boosted bilateral trade volume from 796 million USD in 2006 to 2.5 billion USD in 2010. Visa regime was abolished in 2009, opening doors to a stream of visitors from both sides (see Turkish government data on trade with Syria).

2011 Syrian Uprising: Why Did Turkey Turn On Assad?

The outbreak of the anti-government uprising in Syria in 2011 put an abrupt end to a short-lived Ankara-Damascus axis, as Turkey, after a period of weighing its options, decided that Assad’s days were numbered. Ankara hedged its bets on Syria’s opposition, offering shelter to leaders of the Free Syrian Army.

Turkey’s decision was partly dictated by its regional image, so carefully nurtured by Erdogan’s government: a stable and democratic state, ruled by a moderate Islamist government that offers a model of a progressive political system for other Muslim countries. Assad’s brutal crackdown against initially peaceful protests, condemned across the Arab world, turned him from an asset to a liability.

http://middleeast.about.com/od/syria/a/Turkish-Syrian-Relations-Overview.htm

It's not like the two countries were not getting along quite well before Assad's repression started. Does anyone condemn Turkey for distancing itself from Assad last year in light of how he reacted to the protests?

Turkey / Syria – It’s all about the Kurds.

Everyone from the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to the EU’s Catherine Ashton is “urging restraint” as Turkey retaliates for Syrian shelling over the border yesterday. But despite Turkish anger about the killing of five of their citizens, in the long-term they may be more concerned about what they see as Syrian “meddling” in Turkey’s internal conflict with the Kurds.

Over the summer, attacks by the Kurdish Workers’ Party, the PKK, suddenly increased after a decade of relative quiet.

While the world concentrated on what was happening inside Syria, the PKK attacked Turkish military patrols and took control of several dozen villages on the Turkish side of the border. Turkish commentators see the hands of Syria and Iran.

>

Everyone, of course, is meddling across borders. The Turks are funding and arming the Free Syrian Army, the main guerrilla group seeking the overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s government and allowing its fighters to retreat across into Turkey to rearm and regroup. Support for the PKK is the Syrian government response.

http://blogs.channel4.com/lindsey-hilsum-on-international-affairs/turkey-syria-its-all-about-the-kurds/775

But, a NATO operation conjures up images of the long-feared NATO-Soviet war to "end all wars" and globalized conflict.

Is regime change in Syria really worth going to that brink?

Cajoling, Drugging and More as Rebels Try to Draw Defectors

ANTAKYA, Turkey — For months, the disparate militias known as the Free Syrian Army relied on defections from the Syrian military to lead a credible if halting challenge to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Every day seemed to bring word of new recruits. Soldiers fled in packs, or officers stole across a border, lifting the rebels’ morale while swelling their ranks.

But now opposition commanders say defections have slowed to a trickle. Some commanders have given up trying to entice defectors, and others have resorted to more desperate measures: cajoling, duping, threatening and even drugging and kidnapping military men to get them to change sides, or at least stay out of the fight. Without defections, they say, the opposition cannot hope to grow, never mind prevail.

“We use means only used by the devil,” said Ahmed Qunatri, a rebel commander in northern Syria who defected from the Republican Guard.

As Syria’s fighting burns into its 19th month, Mr. Assad’s forces have moved effectively to cut off what amounts to the armed rebellion’s most significant resource: soldiers with training and weapons who change sides. In a shift in strategy, the government has preferred to attack towns and neighborhoods from a distance using artillery and air power, preserving its resources and distancing its soldiers from rebel fighters — and from the public, including friends and neighbors, who might encourage defections.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/syria-rebels-press-harder-to-gain-more-fighters.html?_r=2&ref=global-home&

There are no reliable numbers of ex-Syrian military defectors, because the source of most of the public estimates are from the FSA, itself, and its political auxilaries. When you look at the numbers provided during 2012, the claim is that several thousand Syrian soldiers have thusfar defected (not all deserters are in the field, many have simply returned home to areas outside gov't control or have fled abroad to Turkey or another surrounding state).

The FSA is said to total 40,000-60,000 but that is a top estimate and may not reflect the actual number of active strength fighters. This roughly matches the top estimates for the number of Syrian military deserters. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/syria-loses-20-000-troops-as-deserters-flee-turkey-says-1-.html The policy of opposition groups is to not provide overall estimates of defecting Syrian military, but to instead report small groups that defect with their officers as they enter Turkey. In addition, the ranks of the armed Syrian opposition includes armed groups without military training or organization. The size of rebel Syrian non-ex military combatants in the field varies over time, and most are local Sunni militias. See, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Syrian_Army

By comparison, the regular Syrian Army is a largely conscript force that numbers 220,000 with an active reserve of 280,000, with additional tens of thousands of in the Syrian Navy and Air Force. Elite Republican Guard units total about 100,000. Like most ranking government officials in Syria, officers are drawn largely from the ruling Alawite sect. There are some two to three million Syrian Alawite.

While there have been several dozen high-level defections, the Syrian military appears to still be largely intact, including the top commanders. According to a report in August in al-Arabiya, a Saudi-funded news agency: (1) http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/08/09/231222.html


Foreign fighters in Libya have often been said to number "in the hundreds" but that is growing as are concerns about their influence on the opposition. http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1209/20/ctw.01.html The latest estimate from a reliable source, Emile Hokayem, Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, states, "They are realistically about 2,000-3,000 in number." http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/20/world/meast/syria-libya-fighter/index.html

Algerian UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, citing Syrian government sources, places that number considerably higher, at 5,000. http://www.islamicinvitationturkey.com/2012/09/25/brahimi-to-security-council-5000-foreign-fighters-operate-in-syria/

There are foreign combatant groups from Libya, Lebanon, Jordan, Kosovo, Croats, with smaller detachments from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the other GCC states. The one thing they all have in common is that they are almost all Sunnis.

US officials, including Secretary of Defense Paneta, have stated that it would be a mistake, as in Iraq, to attempt to disarm the Syrian military and police or to allow its disintegration. Analysts believe this would lead to chaos in Syria, and risks that the most dangerous weapons, including chemical and biological arms, could fall into the hands of extremist groups and organized crime on the international black market. An estimated 15,000 MANPADS are still unaccounted for after the regime change in Libya.

Recent battles have reportedly depleted rebel Syrian force strength, and rebel casualties have numbered in the hundreds in some offensives. While the opposition is undoubtedly better funded and equipped, and is reportedly receiving some advanced weapons, such as MANPADS, the actual strength of the armed opposition may have been overestimated. See, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57522679/u.s-aims-to-rally-syrian-opposition-with-new-aid/?tag=scrollShell;housing-Home
________________________________________
(1) Wiki: The original investment in Al Arabiya was $300 million by the Middle East Broadcasting Center (MBC), Lebanon's Hariri Group, and other investors from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Persian Gulf states. Through MBC, Abdulaziz bin Fahd and his maternal uncle Waleed bin Ibrahim al Ibrahim own and have control over Al Arabiya.

Now O & his administration have more worries. I pray that it doesn't go into a full blown war.

Government sources have said Turkey is not planning to declare war on Syria.

The UN Security Council is to meet later, following a Turkish request for the body to take "necessary action" to stop Syrian "aggression".

Russia, which is allied to President Bashar al-Assad's government, has asked Damascus to acknowledge officially that the cross-border attack was "a tragic accident" which will not happen again.

In Syria itself as many as 21 members of Syria's elite Republican Guards have been killed in an explosion and firefight in the Qudsaya district of Damascus, the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) told the BBC.

Shelling across the border of a NATO Ally, no less!