HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » Obama 348, Romney 190: UA...

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 07:07 AM

Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results

Source: Huntsville Times

HUNTSVILLE, Alabama -- There is little suspense left in our presidential horse race, even in most of the so-called swing states, says astrophysicist and statistician Wes Colley.

The way he measures the poll data and his deceptively simple median method, which have correctly predicted the last two presidential elections, show President Obama has locked up Ohio and Virginia and cemented a small, but stable lead in Florida.

Bottom line: Obama is well on his way to re-election.


Read more: http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/10/uah_astrophysicist_and_college.html#incart_river_default



11 replies, 5602 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 11 replies Author Time Post
Reply Obama 348, Romney 190: UAH astrophysicist, who got it right twice before, predicts electoral results (Original post)
trof Oct 2012 OP
Berlum Oct 2012 #1
Robb Oct 2012 #3
ChairmanAgnostic Oct 2012 #9
LunaSea Oct 2012 #2
daybranch Oct 2012 #4
INdemo Oct 2012 #6
mountain grammy Oct 2012 #5
INdemo Oct 2012 #7
liberal N proud Oct 2012 #8
jaysunb Oct 2012 #10
happyslug Oct 2012 #11

Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 07:35 AM

1. Did he factor in the Mormon White Horse Prophecy?

or does he consider non-rational input to be irrelevant?

h

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Berlum (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 08:21 AM

3. Mitch brought a sword to a lightsaber fight.


Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Robb (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 01:14 PM

9. no, a tipped epee.

The ability to swing from one direction to another so quickly is Romney in a nutshell.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 07:45 AM

2. Huntsville

Still my favorite bright spot in the old home state!

I wondered if "median method" referred to the "Copernicus method" coined by Dr. Richard Gott, and sure enough, there he was in the article. A fascinating (and really nice guy, and another southerner, fyi, trof..) who I've never known to be wrong.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Richard_Gott

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 08:29 AM

4. Romney only a symbol

of what the party has become. He is a loser and if we do not get rid of the republican extremists in the Senate and especially the House we wil be the losers too. Vote a straight dem ticket and support dem candidates with your money, your phone calls, and your door knocks etc. everywhere. Vote against gerrymandering and for progressive measures like Issue 2 in Ohio to give the country back to our citizens. Obama Biden, Sherrod Brown, Sharon Neuhardt.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to daybranch (Reply #4)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 09:45 AM

6. Agree....all the corporate mafia needs is a puppet

like Mitt in the White House..Take a look a G.W....perfect for the corporate cause.The corporate mafia stole two elections to have their puppet. And now,all the corporate power group needs is someone that responds when they pull the strings..And they have that with Mitt.
We have to somehow get rid of Citizens United..we cannot have this in our next election..period.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 09:44 AM

5. Just wish I could cast my early vote and hibernate for the next month

but there is work to do here in swing state Colorado. The lies are flying fast and furious ahead of the debate. Where I live, lots of Rmoney signs.. ugh, but there are a few of us Obama folks and we're busy. People are "waking the fuck up."

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to mountain grammy (Reply #5)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 09:55 AM

7. I watched the video with the Colorado voters making their way

to a Rmoney gathering.I thought it was just unbelievable at the hate being displayed by those Teabaggers...I never thought in my lifetime I would ever see this in our country.
...I remember the 60's and there were a few radicals that were certainly trying to defeat the purpose of our cause but I just don't remember anyone or any one group spreading the hate like we see today.Our message was to end the war and not about hatred.
....We cannot relax for one minute. They certainly aren't.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 12:31 PM

8. The media is selling the story that it is a statistical tie.

They have to make the polls close to allow for a few switches in the voting process and wa-la you have your self a Romney win on Nov. 6th.

Watch it happen.

They are going to steal it.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 01:23 PM

10. This is also my prediction

and I'm not nearly as smart as Prof Colley

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to trof (Original post)

Wed Oct 3, 2012, 01:47 PM

11. Are we looking at another 1964 election?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1964

Here is the 1964 election by counties:



Johnson...won 61.1% of the popular vote, the highest won by a candidate since 1820. It was the sixth-most lopsided presidential election in the history of the United States in terms of electoral votes; in terms of popular vote, it was the fifth-most. No candidate for president since the election has equaled or surpassed Johnson's 1964 percentage margin of the popular vote.

Now, Nixon did surpass Johnson's Electoral Collage vote in 1972, but the popular vote was much closer. The County election map for 1972, for comparison purposes:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1972

For comparison purposes look at the county map for 2008:



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread