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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 03:34 PM

League of Conservation Voters poll: 1-point Senate race in Arizona

Source: Politico

The Arizona Senate race is a dead heat even as Mitt Romney establishes a solid lead over President Barack Obama in the state, according to a survey commissioned by the League of Conservation Voters.

Republican Rep. Jeff Flake holds a 1-point lead over Democrat Richard Carmona, the former U.S. surgeon general, in the poll. Flake draws support from 44 percent of voters; Carmona clocks in at 43 percent.

The survey, which was shared with POLITICO, was taken by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling and sponsored by the LCV. It tested 993 likely voters between Sept. 7 and 9, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.

Democrats have looked longingly toward Arizona since the beginning of the 2012 cycle, in the hope that a huge victory margin with Latino voters and a compelling candidate could put the Senate seat in play. The Obama campaign even talked of making the state competitive on the presidential level, though the LCV/PPP poll offers little encouragement on that front.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/09/league-of-conservation-voters-poll-point-senate-race-135189.html



I still think this is an outlier race, but with NRSC pulling out of New Mexico and trying to shore up Steve King in North Dakota, we might be seeing some tectonic shifting on the Senate front.

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Reply League of Conservation Voters poll: 1-point Senate race in Arizona (Original post)
brooklynite Sep 2012 OP
Wait Wut Sep 2012 #1
1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #6
Wait Wut Sep 2012 #8
1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #9
Wait Wut Sep 2012 #10
1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #13
Wait Wut Sep 2012 #14
1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #15
Wait Wut Sep 2012 #17
1StrongBlackMan Sep 2012 #18
iandhr Sep 2012 #2
Rain Mcloud Sep 2012 #3
Arugula Latte Sep 2012 #11
former9thward Sep 2012 #12
Rain Mcloud Sep 2012 #16
former9thward Sep 2012 #19
Rain Mcloud Sep 2012 #20
Firebrand Gary Sep 2012 #4
dbackjon Sep 2012 #5
Iliyah Sep 2012 #7

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 03:47 PM

1. I've told my Republican friends...

...that if they vote for Flake instead of Carmona, I'll never take anything they say seriously ever again. I will then know that they are nothing but racists and bigots. Dr. Carmona is what Arizona needs...desperately. I do have to say that I'm thrilled to see how far up the polls he's climbed.

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Response to Wait Wut (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:38 PM

6. I have written on my local Arizona daily rag's on-line comment section ...

that the Carmona/Flake race will truly be a measure of Arizona Partisanship. The vast majority of rwing poster consistently talk about Democratic candidates "rubber-stamping" for President Obama/Nancy Pelosi ... Well, Carmona by his service and policy positions has demonstrated that he will not toe the Democratic or gop partisan line.

BTW, I would far rather have the superpacs support Carmona in his Senate race; than President Obama in the presidential race. Arizona is trending purple, but is not there yet. Give us 2-4 more years.

So since President Obama has little chance of pulling out Arizona, Carmona has a real shot at beating Flake, the money would be better spent on Carmona.

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #6)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:51 PM

8. Dr. Carmona is the first AZ candidate I've donated to...

...since Rodney Glassman. I lost so much faith in our state Dem Party that I pretty much just washed my hands of
AZ politics. But, I've been so inspired by Dr. Carmona that I've been tossing him a few bucks when I have it to spare.

And, you are absolutely correct in your analysis. He 'should' appeal to a wider range of voters.

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Response to Wait Wut (Reply #8)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 05:28 PM

9. Where, if you don't mind me asking ...

are you in AZ. From reading your posts, am I correct in guessing somewhere in CD2?

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #9)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 05:47 PM

10. CD1

Prescott. I try to support all Democrats in Arizona, though. We don't have much luck electing Dems in Prescott. Can't imagine why.

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Response to Wait Wut (Reply #10)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 07:07 PM

13. Well Howdy neighbor! ...

Prescott is some pretty land. I remember driving into town and thinking "Wow ... the town square looked like the town square in back to the future."

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #13)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 07:50 PM

14. Heh...it looks like that, but...

...the attitude is more like Blast From the Past.

And, Howdy back atcha!!

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Response to Wait Wut (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 07:57 PM

15. Having lived in AZ for about 20 years ...

I've only been up that way once ... I'd heard two dissuading things: first, there was a huge meth problem ... before meth was cool; and second, many of it's residents proudly proclaim their red-neckness. Neither of these things are particularly alluring to 1StrongBlackMan or any Black man, for that matter!

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Response to 1StrongBlackMan (Reply #15)

Wed Sep 12, 2012, 10:55 AM

17. No kidding.

My husband is from SoCal and is a blues piano player. I'm from Chicago. We both grew up with what we now know is called 'diversity'. Neither of us knew any different. Living where we do now, it's rare to see anyone brown unless they've got a tan. We both feel really weird whenever we see a black man or woman because we want to run up an hug them. Though, we both think it would be hilarious. We're soooooo sick of white people. Angry, racist, bigoted and ignorant white people at that.

And, yes, there is a huge meth problem. They blame it on California. They also have a huge redneck problem. I blame that on the lack of water and the heat.

If you ever make it up this way again, let me know! Maybe the husband will be playing! He's playing in Sedona this weekend.

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Response to Wait Wut (Reply #17)

Wed Sep 12, 2012, 11:08 AM

18. I love Sedona ...

The first time I was up there was for the Jazz Feastival. After having been in the southern part of AZ for about a year, see the vivid green of the trees, the red dirts and rock, under the stark blue sky ... I thought I was having a acid flash-back!

It is far more likely that I'll be to Sedona (or Flagstaff, my daughter is considering NAU) before I travel to Prescott. But if I do, I'll let you know ... maybe we can get together.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 03:49 PM

2. I hope this holds.

Picking up this seat would be huge.

FYI Steve King is in Iowa and he is not running for the Senate.

The GOP candidate is Rick Berg in North Dakota its and open seat. But you are right. Republicans thought they would will that easily.

But Heidi Heitkamp our candidate has kept it close.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:03 PM

3. Oh,that League of Conservative Voters Poll.

 

There is no bias there.
I think I smell a sea change in the weather.

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Response to Rain Mcloud (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 05:55 PM

11. This one is "Conservation" Voters

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Response to Rain Mcloud (Reply #3)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 07:00 PM

12. The pollster was PPP which is a Democratic firm.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #12)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:40 PM

16. Its not who does the voting

 

it is who does the counting.
probably since it was a Conservative Think Tank who commissioned a Liberal Polling Firm then perhaps it is as close to being independent
as it ban be today with all the zealot vitriol from all three sides of the equation.
Am I alone in seeing the cracks in the once impenetrable Republican boiler plate?

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Response to Rain Mcloud (Reply #16)

Wed Sep 12, 2012, 12:52 PM

19. Yes you are alone.

It was not a conservative think tank. You misread the word as another poster informed you.

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Response to former9thward (Reply #19)

Wed Sep 12, 2012, 09:59 PM

20. I can not blame anyone but myself here.

 

League of Conservation Voters that I mistook for League of Conservative Voters.
I read up on them in Wikipedia and discovered my folly.
Sorry about the mix up.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:24 PM

4. I think Carmona has a real shot a winning this state!

The numbers look good and Flake has a substantial amount of baggage!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:27 PM

5. Carmona is running some great commercials

Flake is still bruised from nasty primary.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 11, 2012, 04:47 PM

7. Did they take into account

Latino/Latina votes because the vibes from AZ looks promising even for Pres O.

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