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Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:06 PM

Obama takes slim post-convention lead over Romney: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Source: CNBC

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama regained some footing and overtook his Republican rival Mitt Romney in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday, a day after the end of the Democratic convention.

In what appears to be a convention-induced bounce, Obama jumped ahead in the latest daily tracking poll with 46 percent of 1,434 likely voters saying they would vote for him if the November 6 elections were held today, topping Romney's 44 percent.

The rolling four-day online poll was conducted through early Friday. The Democratic convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, where Obama accepted his party's nomination for a second term, wrapped up late on Thursday night with the president's nationally televised speech.

"The numbers only moved a little bit but they moved in the direction that suggests that we may be seeing the first inkling of a post-convention bump," Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/id/48946039



Romney was ahead 45-44 in yesterday's poll, and 46-44 on Wednesday.

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Reply Obama takes slim post-convention lead over Romney: Reuters/Ipsos poll (Original post)
highplainsdem Sep 2012 OP
Politicalboi Sep 2012 #1
Iliyah Sep 2012 #2
Bucky Sep 2012 #3
kelly1mm Sep 2012 #4
regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #7
kelly1mm Sep 2012 #18
Chemisse Sep 2012 #14
We_Must_Organize Sep 2012 #5
regnaD kciN Sep 2012 #6
Dannyteague Sep 2012 #8
heaven05 Sep 2012 #10
progressivebydesign Sep 2012 #13
Ken Burch Sep 2012 #21
heaven05 Sep 2012 #9
longship Sep 2012 #11
joc46224 Sep 2012 #12
SkyDaddy7 Sep 2012 #19
VPStoltz Sep 2012 #15
daleo Sep 2012 #16
justice1 Sep 2012 #17
meti57b Sep 2012 #20

Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:09 PM

1. WTF?

When Obama has to bus children in to his rallies I will believe the polls. Magoo did the same thing. Abusing children to show a bigger crowd. Pathetic.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:18 PM

2. Or cause miners to lose a day's pay so Mittens

can have props - WTF

This poll is bullshit. At first, Mittens was up approx. 4-5 points and now O is up 2? Plus Mittens doesn't think our soliders are important, asswipe.

I can't wait for Ras. . . not.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:26 PM

3. Not the sort of lead that can withstand $100m worth of SuperPac lies

Buckle in, kids. It's gonna get ugly.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:29 PM

4. The last Reuters/Ipsos poll (Aug. 2-6th) had the President up 7, 49-42. what happened? nt

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Response to kelly1mm (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:50 PM

7. I/R has been running tracking polls daily since then...

...even if you haven't seen them. The O +7 was short-lived, and the results gave pretty much had one candidate or the other up by a point or two since then.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 11:32 PM

18. Thanks, I did not see them. Good that it is up then! I just looked on RCP and the early

August poll was the last they had up.

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Response to kelly1mm (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 09:27 PM

14. I was wondering that too.

Something is bogus, either the old lead, or the sudden dead heat.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:35 PM

5. Rasmussen is biased as hell for the Republicans

Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, who is the best in the business at predicting election outcomes, has documented this several times.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

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Response to We_Must_Organize (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:43 PM

6. Uh...this isn't Rasmussen...

Ipsos is a completely different polling outfit. I notice they run a four-day, overnight tracker. That means 50% of their current sample came from before Clinton's speech. We won't know the full extent of any convention bounce in their poll until all of their data is post-DNC...which will be the results released this coming Tuesday afternoon.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:51 PM

8. Poll means little. Romney has huge lead

 

In most of the south and in the plains states which make it close in the popular vote. Obama is in good shape with the EV.

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Response to Dannyteague (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 06:11 PM

10. right

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Response to Dannyteague (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 08:13 PM

13. Romney doesn't have a "huge lead" in the Plains States.

Do you have a link to credible polls for that? Thanks.

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Response to Dannyteague (Reply #8)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 09:01 AM

21. The Plains States? Sure you don't mean the Mountain West?

n/t.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 06:11 PM

9. the

only thing I can figure with these voodoo polls is they don't want mitt-twit too embarrassed. This dips... cannot have this type of popularity. I just can't believe americans are that STUPID!!!!

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 07:03 PM

11. Four day rolling?

In other words a fourth of the data is before the convention began. A fourth was taken before the second day. A fourth was taken before the third day. A fourth was taken after.

Indeed, if this is showing a bump, 3/4 of the data was taken before the end of the convention.

The telling data will be Monday at the earliest.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 07:29 PM

12. McCain was ahead by 5 at this point in 2008

I was curious as to how McCain was doing around this time in 2008. Gallup had him ahead by 5 points (48-43) and we know how that turned out! I'm a bit frustrated (and concerned) about how this race can be as close as it is. In my opinion Romney is one of the worst candidates to come along in a very long time so how can it be this close?? See how McCain was actually ahead in September of 2008 makes me feel a bit better. (Yes, I guess you could say the same for Obama being ahead--that he could also go the way of McCain--but I feel that the debates are only going to help Obama).

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/gallup-daily-mccains-bounce-gives-him-5point-lead.aspx

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Response to joc46224 (Reply #12)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:28 AM

19. Two things killed McCain's 5pt lead...

McCain saying the economy was fine & probably the most points lost came from his VP Pick The one & only Sarah Palin's news interviews!!! LOL!

And Obama won the debates which did not allow McCain to ever recover.

Romney's chances are win the debates (Which I do not see happening) & hope like hell the BILLION DOLLAR BLITZ all the wealthy Super PACs supporting him can scare enough folks away from Obama!

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 10:51 PM

15. According to the dude on Rachel's show tonight...

the Prez has been LEADING the entire time - in ALL the swing states.
These polls are scientific - none of them really are - and don't reflect overall trends just snippets.

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Response to VPStoltz (Reply #15)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 11:20 PM

16. Polls are no longer scientific

There is far too much response bias these days for polls to be considered scientific. That requires a random sample, which is no longer a reasonable expectation for telephone polls and never was a reasonable expectation for on-line polls or surveys.

Plus, most pollsters are biased towards their paymasters anyway.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 11:31 PM

17. Having been part of their survey this spring, I have no faith in Ipsos.

The poll was blatantly biased in favor of Mitt Romney.

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Response to highplainsdem (Original post)

Sat Sep 8, 2012, 07:44 AM

20. What point spread did we have at this point four years ago? Wasn't it only a 2-point difference

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