Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:12 PM

Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama

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Source: The Nation

Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama
Greg Mitchell on September 7, 2012 - 1:23 PM ET

Gallup, as usual, posted its latest poll findings at 1 pm--and found a big bounce for Obama from this year's convention, adding to yesterday's indication. They show a very strong one-day 3% hike in his approval rating to 52%--his highest mark in many months. This means that he gained a whopping 7% in just the past three days.
...
It had been a 47% to 46% lead for him (with no change at all from a week ago during and after the RNC)--but now he has opened lead to 3%, at 48%-45%. And that's in a 7-day poll average with only the first couple days of the DNC factored in, so it should go up a bit more over the next few days. ...

Read more: http://www.thenation.com/blog/169807/breaking-gallup-reports-major-dnc-bounce-obama

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18 replies	Author	Time	Post
Breaking: Gallup Reports Major DNC 'Bounce' for Obama (Original post)	Texas Lawyer	Sep 2012	OP
K and R this one	Kingofalldems	Sep 2012	#1
It's great news...for this particular moment	SoapBox	Sep 2012	#2
Is that considered a bounce?	Flatpicker	Sep 2012	#3
It's a 7-day average.	SansACause	Sep 2012	#4
7 days rolling average	DLnyc	Sep 2012	#5
Remember, this is a 7-day tracking poll with the conclusion of the DNC not yet in the 7-day mix.	Texas Lawyer	Sep 2012	#6
Why does this even matter? . . .	aggiesal	Sep 2012	#7
Because it makes us feel good.	Lasher	Sep 2012	#9
Then this will make you feel . . .	aggiesal	Sep 2012	#11
I matters because some undecided voters will back the person that is leading	A Simple Game	Sep 2012	#13
Because most candidates get a bump in the polls after their respective	livetohike	Sep 2012	#14
Looking at the RCP average	Lasher	Sep 2012	#8
Here is the 50 state poll . . .	aggiesal	Sep 2012	#10
Actually, what looks like an electoral college Obama bounce at 538 is a reflection of Romney's	Texas Lawyer	Sep 2012	#15
I agree about the "Now-Cast" . . .	aggiesal	Sep 2012	#16
And this is before his speech last night. Which means Clinton and the other speakers alone	NYC Liberal	Sep 2012	#12
Yippeee!	Iliyah	Sep 2012	#17
Locking, sorry, this is a duplicate. Please continue discussion and post updates here:	Rhiannon12866	Sep 2012	#18

Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:13 PM

Kingofalldems (11,090 posts)

1. K and R this one

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:15 PM

SoapBox (5,828 posts)

2. It's great news...for this particular moment

but...we have weeks to go.

Don't let up folks!

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:19 PM

Flatpicker (515 posts)

3. Is that considered a bounce?

What I mean is, It seems like a loss for Rmoney more than a gain for Obama.

I was hoping that the bounce was going to take him to 50%.
How do you read this? He gained 1% of undecideds and moved 1% from Pro-Mitt to undecided?

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Response to Flatpicker (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:33 PM

SansACause (54 posts)

4. It's a 7-day average.

This is only the first one that has polling done during the DNC. I think the normal convention bounce is about 4%.

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Response to Flatpicker (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:36 PM

DLnyc (1,977 posts)

5. 7 days rolling average

To move rolling average 1 point in one day takes a pretty good day (maybe 7%).

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Response to Flatpicker (Reply #3)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:41 PM

Texas Lawyer (340 posts)

6. Remember, this is a 7-day tracking poll with the conclusion of the DNC not yet in the 7-day mix.

If just the beginning of the DNC is a big enough polling swing to sway the whole 7-day average (which is mainly inclusive of days before the DNC), than the polling must be very good for the period during the DNC.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:44 PM

aggiesal (1,529 posts)

7. Why does this even matter? . . .

There are 50 elections on November 6th, not 1 election.
So, getting a bump over to the national poll really means
nothing but making us feel good.

Tell me that we get a bump in the polls from the 8 states,
that RMoney thinks are the most important, and I'll be
extremely happy.

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Response to aggiesal (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:24 PM

Lasher (20,480 posts)

9. Because it makes us feel good.

I think that matters.

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Response to Lasher (Reply #9)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:27 PM

aggiesal (1,529 posts)

11. Then this will make you feel . . .

Really GOOD!

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

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Response to aggiesal (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:40 PM

A Simple Game (4,842 posts)

13. I matters because some undecided voters will back the person that is leading

just to jump on the bandwagon. Say if Obama gets to 55% then he will probably pick up another 2 or 3% just because people like a winner.

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Response to aggiesal (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:41 PM

livetohike (14,731 posts)

14. Because most candidates get a bump in the polls after their respective

conventions and Romney got zero bounce. Zero. So while we are still two months out until the election, this is good news that President Obama is getting a bounce and it is very bad news for the Romney campaign. All the money they are spending on national ads and the convention was Romney's night to shine and he fell flat, or worse. He went over like a lead balloon.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 03:58 PM

Lasher (20,480 posts)

8. Looking at the RCP average

Romney hasn't been ahead since October 11 last year. Now get this: In the past 3 out of 4 consecutive days beginning September 3 this year, Obama and Romney were exactly tied. What are the odds?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

What a heartbreaker for Team Romney, so close but no cigar! Today Obama is ahead by 0.7%. The lead, ever so elusive for Romney, will now creep further away as Obama increases his advantage each day.

Just wanted to share a little polling fun. But let's remember, Romney only needs to be ahead on one day to win.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:26 PM

aggiesal (1,529 posts)

10. Here is the 50 state poll . . .

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Very cool stuff.
You'll see that Obama got a bump in the electoral college votes
where RMoney didn't.

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Response to aggiesal (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:43 PM

Texas Lawyer (340 posts)

15. Actually, what looks like an electoral college Obama bounce at 538 is a reflection of Romney's

non-bounce (the model presumes a bounce and so when the RNC bounce did not meet expectations, there was a Romney penalty which looks like an Obama bounce. Under 538's model, it is too early to see whether or not Obama gets a big bounce (which will look like a bounce), a normal bounce (which is factored into the 538 model and will not look much like a bounce), or a small bounce (which will look like a Romney bounce).

PS - 538's "now-cast" does not have all of these same bells and whistles.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Reply #15)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:56 PM

aggiesal (1,529 posts)

16. I agree about the "Now-Cast" . . .

but past elections indicate that the "Nov. 6 Forecast" site is the
most accurate of any poll site I've been monitoring, because it
looks at all different polls and then takes some mathematical
average number to come up with its conclusion.

Again, Very Cool site.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:39 PM

NYC Liberal (15,600 posts)

12. And this is before his speech last night. Which means Clinton and the other speakers alone

produced this bounce. Can't wait to see what the real bounce is with Biden's and Obama's speeches last night factored in.

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 04:57 PM

Iliyah (2,363 posts)

17. Yippeee!

Overall, thanks to the DEMS! All the speakers were fantastic and guess what, they DID NOT HAVE TO LIE!

Now I could see the GOPpers spouting that W got 10 point bounce, oh wait, to them he doesn't exist.

Congrats DEMS!

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Response to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2012, 05:11 PM

Rhiannon12866 (55,097 posts)

18. Locking, sorry, this is a duplicate. Please continue discussion and post updates here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014221989

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