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Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:10 AM

The ADP National Employment Report July 2012

Last edited Wed Aug 1, 2012, 10:34 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: ADP Payroll Services

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 163,000 from June to July on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from May to June was revised down slightly, from the initial estimate of 176,000 to a revised estimate of 172,000. Employment in the private, service-providing sector expanded 148,000 in July after rising a revised 151,000 in June. The private, goods-producing sector added 15,000 jobs in July. Manufacturing employment rose 6,000 this month, following a revised increase of 9,000 in June.



Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Release_July_12.pdf



See also:

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_July_12.pdf

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its numbers on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

ETA: link to last month's BLS report, which is chock-full of links to previous ADP and BLS reports

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014160067
Payroll employment continues to edge up in June (+80,000); jobless rate unchanged (8.2%)

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Reply The ADP National Employment Report July 2012 (Original post)
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2012 OP
WI_DEM Aug 2012 #1
dmallind Aug 2012 #2
Arkana Aug 2012 #3

Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:31 AM

1. apparently this doesn't predict anything...

last month it was pretty good and then the actual jobs numbers came out two days later and was much less optimistic.

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Response to WI_DEM (Reply #1)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 09:54 AM

2. Depends what you expect. They correlate extremely well.

They are different surveys using different means so if you want variation within 1000 you'll be SOL. But if you want to look at direction and magnitude you'll find they do fairly well.



http://seekingalpha.com/article/278674-adp-vs-bls-correlating-the-labor-reports

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Wed Aug 1, 2012, 11:50 AM

3. They were miles off last time--no reason to believe them this time.

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