Mofaz hints at Netanyahu plan to attack Iran

Citing a number of officials and reports, the New York Times said that estimates that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities “would set off a catastrophic series of events” is considered by some to be “partly a bluff,” and that these estimates are accepted at the top levels of the Israeli government.

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One retired official told the New York Times that based on past scenarios including threats from Saddam Hussein to “burn half of Israel,” and threats from Hezbollah which resulted in limited harm to Israel, “If you put all those retaliations together and add in the terrorism of recent years, we are probably facing some multiple of that.”

“I’m not saying Iran will not react. But it will be nothing like London during World War Two,” the New York Times reported the official as saying, citing an internal report.

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Analysts agree that the scale and nature of Iran’s response will depend on many unpredictable factors, including the degree to which Tehran views Washington as having approved an Israeli strike.

The general assumption is that Iran would ask the Islamist militant groups Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon to fire rockets at Israeli population centers. Tehran also probably would launch some of its own long-range Shahab-3 missiles while sponsoring terrorist attacks against Israeli embassies and Jewish soft targets around the world.

Analysts disagree, however, about whether Iran would act against U.S. interests and other third parties in the region, given that all-out retaliation could draw an overwhelming U.S. response and dampen international sympathy in the aftermath of an Israeli attack.

“In Iran, there is this belief and perception that U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East are almost identical and convergent, so if Israel attacks Iran, Tehran will believe that the U.S. gave Israel the green light,” said Alireza Nader, senior international policy analyst at the Rand Corp. and co-author of “Israel and Iran: A Dangerous Rivalry.”

Mr. Nader said Iran might “play the victim” and offer limited retaliation against Israel, then exploit international outrage to kick out U.N. nuclear inspectors and restart its nuclear program.
But, he added: “All these things are very hard to tell because war doesn’t always go according to plan, and the situation could escalate out of control.” ...

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This is where the bargaining gets really tricky. Both the Israelis and the Americans would prefer to do as little of the heavy lifting themselves, and to reap as many of the benefits as possible. Each country has a different calculus of its goals and capabilities, and each may find itself compelled to act under different circumstances. Needless to say, the actions of each influence the other.

On the Israeli side, domestic political considerations also weigh in. Last week, the largest party in the Israeli Knesset (parliament), Kadima, left the coalition, which it had joined barely two months ago. While this was due to a domestic intrigue, it will most likely lead to elections early next year, and will put pressure on Barak and his ally, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, to deliver on their promises to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Moreover, the exit from the top decision-making panel of Kadima's head, Shaul Mofaz, can be seen as conducive to rash military action. Mofaz, a Persian Jew born in Iran and a former chief of staff of the Israeli army, was widely perceived as a moderating influence when it comes to Iran.

Overall, it is hard not to agree with the acclaimed economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted earlier this month that a "perfect (economic) storm scenario" was "unfolding," in part due to the high likelihood of large-scale violence in the Middle East. While it is not yet completely clear who the main actors would be - and whether Israel would be directly involved - the likelihood that the various diplomatic negotiations will succeed grows slimmer with each day that passes. Conversely, the danger of a regional war increases...

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