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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:11 AM

Heat Wave Wilts Corn as Supplies Diminish Most Since 1996

Source: Bloomberg

Corn supplies in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, are declining at the fastest pace since 1996 just as a Midwest heat wave damages the world’s largest harvest for a third consecutive year.

Stockpiles were probably 3.168 billion bushels (80.47 million metric tons) on June 1, 47 percent less than on March 1, the average of 22 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg shows. The worst Midwest drought in more than a decade is wilting a harvest that the U.S. Department of Agriculture says will be the biggest ever. The agency updates its inventory estimate June 29 and its production forecast two weeks later.

Futures surged 25 percent since reaching a 20-month low June 15, and Morgan Stanley expects prices to advance another 10 percent to $7 a bushel in two months if the drought persists. The rally is boosting global food costs that the United Nations estimates dropped 14 percent from a record in February 2011 and widening losses for ethanol producers including Decatur, Illinois-based Archer Daniels Midland Co.

“We have a potential disaster developing for the U.S. corn supply,” said Peter Meyer, the senior director for agricultural commodities at PIRA Energy Group in New York who cut his corn- crop forecast after surveying fields in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio last week. “This year may be the worst yet.”

Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-26/heat-wave-wilts-corn-as-supply-drops-most-since-96-commodities.html

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Arrow 26 replies Author Time Post
Reply Heat Wave Wilts Corn as Supplies Diminish Most Since 1996 (Original post)
Purveyor Jun 2012 OP
lovuian Jun 2012 #1
4th law of robotics Jun 2012 #3
murielm99 Jun 2012 #4
4th law of robotics Jun 2012 #5
Purveyor Jun 2012 #8
amandabeech Jun 2012 #22
NickB79 Jun 2012 #9
Swede Atlanta Jun 2012 #2
orwell Jun 2012 #7
madmom Jun 2012 #6
AngryOldDem Jun 2012 #11
NickB79 Jun 2012 #10
AngryOldDem Jun 2012 #12
NickB79 Jun 2012 #15
AngryOldDem Jun 2012 #21
NickB79 Jun 2012 #16
Uncle Joe Jun 2012 #13
jwirr Jun 2012 #14
OnlinePoker Jun 2012 #17
aquart Jun 2012 #18
Rain Mcloud Jun 2012 #19
lovuian Jun 2012 #20
cliss Jun 2012 #23
Smilo Jun 2012 #24
RUMMYisFROSTED Jun 2012 #25
pscot Jun 2012 #26

Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:16 AM

1. GMO does not produce higher yields

it produces LOWER YIELDS

it is the greatest failure of genetic engineering

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Response to lovuian (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:34 AM

3. That's true because organic corn doesn't require water

 

droughts only affect GM crops.

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Response to 4th law of robotics (Reply #3)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:39 AM

4. What in the world are you talking about?

Do you farm? We do, in the Midwest. We are in the middle of a drought, and expecting triple digit temperatures this week. This will impact our livelihood for several seasons. People here are really hurting.

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Response to murielm99 (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:41 AM

5. I was replying to the post

 

that linked this to lower yields due to GM.

Obviously it's the lack of water and surplus of heat. Not the dreaded genes that that poster fears.


This will impact our livelihood for several seasons. People here are really hurting.


Never said otherwise.

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Response to murielm99 (Reply #4)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:49 AM

8. First it was the unusually warm March that prompted the fruit trees to blossom too early only to get

hit with several killing frosts. Cherry crop is all but wiped out. Apples, peaches, etc all seriously reduced.

Now, the bean and corn fields are scorching. Not looking good around here but I know there are areas much worse off than us...for now.

100 degrees tomorrow and straight upper 90's for the following days with just a scant 20% chance of pop-up showers.

Hang in there, it is going to be tough.

Godspeed.

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Response to Purveyor (Reply #8)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 02:06 PM

22. It's bright red, tart, cooking cherries that will be mostly unavailable.

I just spent 6 weeks in the second most important tart cherry producing county in Michigan, which is Number One in tart cherries for pies, pastry and cheese cake topping. In my county, orchards on the highest ground do have some cherries, but harvesting them is expensive, and I'm not sure that many will be picked or shaken.

Most areas receive their dark red sweet eating cherries from Washington state. To my knowledge, the west coast crop of sweet cherries is fine.

Apples, peaches and plums in Michigan ( and probably upstate New York) are down probably 70-80%. One of the processors in my county has contracts with McDonalds to produce those little packets of apples. He can only use three varieties of apples for the McD's product, and I have no idea where those are coming from.

Blueberries and strawberries were relatively unaffected, as were the other vegetable crops, field corn and hay. Michigan blueberries will be in your stores about 3 weeks early, however.

It has been very dry, but last week a series of fronts brought some rain. A few farmers have irrigation equipment, and there is plenty of ground and surface water for their use.

By the way, Michigan resort areas are as beautiful as ever! Temperatures in the Upper Peninsula, Northern Lower Peninsula and along the Lake Michigan shoreline from north to south are cooler than most places in the Midwest. The higher temps will mean that lakes, including Lake Michigan, will reach swimming temps earlier than usual. Those Pure Michigan commercials are for real! Come on up! The blueberries will be waiting.

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Response to lovuian (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:52 AM

9. Even corn specifically engineered to resist drought isn't up to par against global warming

For example: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/05/corn-monsanto-idUSL1E8H4JMW20120605

June 5 (Reuters) - New genetically altered corn aimed at helping farmers deal with drought offers more hype than help over the long term, according to a report issued on Tu esday by a science and environmental advocacy group.

The Union for Concerned Scientists (UCS) said the only genetically altered corn approved by regulators and undergoing field trials in the United States has no improved water efficiency, and provides only modest results in only moderate drought conditions.


The problem is actually two-fold. Even if a corn plant survives droughts, these heatwaves that are becoming more and more frequent are having a major detrimental impact on pollination. So, you could theoretically have a field of nice-looking but cobless corn that's only good to be chopped for silage feed.

We're going to have a hell of a time feeding the global population in the coming years. The future we all feared, the one climate scientists warned us about, is here

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:28 AM

2. News flash......climate change is happening.....

I guess Senator Inhoffe (R-OK) doesn't follow what is happening to crops in his state. Another head in the sand. The sooner he is off to retirement the better.

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Response to Swede Atlanta (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:48 AM

7. Why should he care...

...as long as his oil-soaked paymasters are doing well.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:43 AM

6. The corn plants around here have been curled up for several

weeks, with no improvement expected. Tomorrow we're supposed to hit 100* plus and the next 5 or so days, 90* plus, with no rain in sight. My poor garden looks about as bad and that's with our watering it about every other day.

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Response to madmom (Reply #6)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:57 AM

11. This whole year has been scary, weatherwise.

For the first time in my memory, there was no appreciable snow. There were thunderstorms in my area in February.

Now, we're looking at temperatures Thursday and Friday between 100 and 105, with fire danger warnings because it's also windy as hell. Most of the counties in my state have outright burning bans, and some cities have bans as well. Fireworks this year are looking like a no-go -- things are so bone dry that any spark could probably take out a whole neighborhood. No joke.

The last time I remember any kind of rain here was in late April. Now, when rain comes, it's only for a few minutes and is mere drops.

I feel so sorry for farmers. They are totally at the mercy of forces beyond their control.

And anyone who continues to deny global warming clearly has their head someplace where the blazing hot sun doesn't shine.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:55 AM

10. The corn looks great up here in Minnesota

Which once again shows how our climate zones are shifting north as global warming advances. Too bad you can't move farms much further north into Canada due to infertile, rocky soil.

Prepare to see the fabled North American bread basket shrink in the coming years as it becomes too hot to sustain today's commercial agriculture in it's southern portions.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:58 AM

12. Exactly.

I heard that some places in Kansas on Tuesday were warmer than Saudi Arabia.

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Response to AngryOldDem (Reply #12)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:29 PM

15. I'm just waiting for the exodus from Texas and Oklahoma

A new wave of Okies fleeing the next Dust Bowl as the water supplies falter. The Ogallalla aquifer is already plummeting in many areas where it's been pumped for decades. If water supplies are truly the oil of the 21st century, as many have been saying, we're gonna have a population boom up here in the upper Midwest. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing though.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #15)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:43 PM

21. Isn't the southwest getting low on water too?

We've had a population boom there, not to mention California's demand for water. And it wasn't that long ago that Georgia and Tennessee were in a water war, at least in the courts. And I agree with your Dust Bowl scenario -- and it will be much worse than that of the '30s.

This whole situation is sort of like a sci-fi "Grapes of Wrath." And I really, really don't want to see how this all plays out.

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Response to NickB79 (Reply #10)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:34 PM

16. Oh, and while it's dry down south, we just got 12" of rain in one week

There was a lake in my front yard and a foot of water in my basement (this 30 miles south of Minneapolis/St. Paul). The city of Duluth was almost swept into Lake Superior by a once-in-a-century storm event. An escaped seal from the zoo was found swimming it's way across a highway.

All this after the driest fall on record, one of the least-snowiest winters ever, and the warmest spring ever recorded.

Good thing global warming is all a myth though!

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:59 AM

13. Kicked and recommended.

Thanks for the thread, Purveyor.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:11 PM

14. These early heat waves are catching the corn at its most vulnerable stage - when it is young and

just starting. If this were later it would not be so bad. However we have been hybriding corn to fit out OLD climate for decades and now that there is a change it is not versatile enough to make the change that is needed on its own.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 12:45 PM

17. Mid-June FAS grain report had global production increasing by 76 million tonnes this year

Global end stocks were estimated to increase by 26 million tonnes. 64 million tonnes of the production increase were expected to be from the U.S., so that estimate has been knocked on its ass.

http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/grain.pdf

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:07 PM

18. We were told.

Why haven't we been working flat out on alternative crops and land use?

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:19 PM

19. 106 degrees Fahrenheit yesterday

 

here in central Oklahoma today and expected tomorrow.
But CO2 doesn't matter it is instead plant food according to renowned pathological liar and charlatan Lord Christopher Monkton.
Hey Monkey,how is that cure for AIDS working out for You? Really?
STFU!

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 01:21 PM

20. We sold are excess corn to China (Don't worry)

Depression and Droughts

history repeats itself

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 04:04 PM

23. This is really bad news.

So much of the world depends on corn, it's got to be the # 1 staple, definitely for livestock, also for ethanol production. Not to mention lots of hungry people around the world who depend on the supply.

No doubt the price of corn is going to go up dramatically, especially if other grain producing countries like Russia and others have weather problems.

Interestingly, here in Oregon the weather is just perfect for growing. I took a long drive along the Willamette Valley yesterday to have a look a the local farms. Everywhere there were crops growing, the wheat looks great. Lots of fields full of small corn plants they look just fine.

Luckily, we have not had any dry weather to speak of. In fact, it's been rainy, cold wet weather for months. For a while, we weren't sure if the tomato plants would even make it it's so cold.

La Nina weather phenomenon is behind it. Looks like we're in for a decade of cold, wet rainy weather here in the Northwest. I wish it would even out a bit.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:11 PM

24. It is about time we stopped using corn

for fuel. Ethanol is not needed and we should be using corn for food.

I would like to know how many of these farmers were planting more corn for ethanol than they were doing in the past for food.

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:19 PM

25. Probably gonna generate some "looks."

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Response to Purveyor (Original post)

Wed Jun 27, 2012, 08:46 PM

26. Rex Tillerson says your fear is overblown

And he should know. He's the head guy at Exxon.

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