May payroll employment changes little (+69,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (8.2%)

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- MAY 2012


Nonfarm payroll employment changed little in May (+69,000), and the unemployment rate
was essentially unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Employment increased in health care, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale
trade but declined in construction. Employment was little changed in most other major
industries.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.7 million) and the unemployment rate (8.2
percent) changed little in May. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.8 percent) and
Hispanics (11.0 percent) edged up in May, while the rates for adult women (7.4 percent),
teenagers (24.6 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and blacks (13.6 percent) showed little
or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in May (not seasonally
adjusted), down from 7.0 percent a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose from 5.1
to 5.4 million in May. These individuals accounted for 42.8 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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This is far below the number I had heard given as an estimate on the radio this morning. ADP's estimate yesterday was that employment was up by 133,000 for May.

Related development. This article on stock futures went online in advance of the release of the BLS report. I don't think that the gist of the report will make the market turn around. It's Fox Business; deal with it.

Stock Futures Sell Off Ahead of Employment Report

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers. We’ll start with other estimates.

ADP, for employment in May:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014132307
May change in employment +133,000

BLS, for employment in April:

Payroll employment rises 115,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little (8.1%)

ADP and Gallup, for employment in April:

There were four related threads about the April jobs estimate at DU already. Three are in General Discussion, and they are based on the figures from ADP. The fourth, in LBN, paints a contrasting picture. It relies on the figures from Gallup.

Per CNBC - ADP Numbers bad, posted by Laura PourMeADrink

BAD: ADP JOBS REPORT MISSES EXPECTATIONS BY A MILE, posted by xchrom

ADP & TrimTabs Showing Much Weaker Payrolls Ahead of Unemployment Report, posted by marmar

U.S. Job Creation Nears Four-Year High, posted by brooklynite

There's a joke about economists in there somewhere.

March, BLS:

Payroll employment rises 120,000 in March; unemployment rate changes little (8.2%)

March, ADP:

Businesses Adding 209,000 New Jobs Last Month Fail To Ignite Market Rally

February, ADP:

ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February, posted by Gruntled Old Man.

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.