Poll Shows Hillary Clinton Wins Iowans’ Heads, but Not Hearts

[Attorney in Texas]

Source: NYT

...in a Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday... More voters in the new survey said that Mr. Sanders could better handle the economy, voters’ No. 1 issue, and more think he shares their values and cares about people like them.
...
By 6-1, Democrats said Iowa should welcome Syrian refugees. Republicans opposed welcoming Syrian refugees by 5-1.

Nearly 60 percent of Democrats oppose sending ground troops to fight the Islamic State. Only 22 percent of Republicans are opposed.

Fifteen percent of Democrats named climate change was their No. 1 issue. The percentage of Republicans who said climate change was the top concern: zero.


Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/25/poll-shows-hillary-clinton-wins-iowans-heads-but-not-hearts/

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Pollster's chart of this month's polling in Iowa:



If you prefer numbers to charts:

November polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

50.5% Clinton
43% Sanders

October polling average in Iowa polls included as reliable in the Real Clear Politics poll aggregator:

54.1% Clinton
32.3% Sanders

So far, November in Iowa polling has been 10.7% better for Sanders and 3.6% worse for Clinton for a 14.5% closer race. In Iowa, Sanders has already overcome the bump Clinton received from Biden's announcement and the Benghazi hearings.

[yallerdawg]

1. Or this chart.

[Attorney in Texas]

5. Your chart isn't focused on November polling, but it shows Clinton falling 71% to 54% so good job!

[yallerdawg]

6. I guess it's all in how you look at a chart.

If you think this is a good chart for Senator Sanders (I-VT), hang yore hat there!

To me, it looks like Hillary took their best shots, and is now back on track to where she started. And rising!

Not like the NYT distorted snapshot chart for 2 weeks.

It's all in your perspective, I guess.

[Attorney in Texas]

7. Since this summer, she's dropped 20% and Sanders has risen 43%. Yes, I do believe I like your chart

[yallerdawg]

9. You got 9 weeks.

Good luck.

[kristopher]

8. Your chart isn't reflecting current trends.

While the polling in the OP is focused on showing the process of voters becoming acquainted with the candidates, your offering is designed to obscure the trends in preferences.

No salt for you today.

[yallerdawg]

11. This chart is all about trends!

Hillary is maintaining her lead!

[kristopher]

12. Not current trends - that's why it is different than the OP.

It conveys information you find important. I'd suggest that most reasonable people would see your contribution as "in addition to" the information provided by the OP.

Another point of note is the quality of the polling. I went to Huffpo and removed the results based on samples of less than 700 people. Ideally, you want at least a shade over 1000 respondents, so at 700 we are below the ideal. The ones I eliminated were mostly around 300 people. Probably 70% of the polls in HP's standard view are too small to be meaningful.

[coyote]

24. I like this chart....

it shows Bernie still in an uptrend (always making higher highs). Clinton is still making lower lows despite her bump in November....she is clearly in a downtrend.

[fbc]

2. If only Biden could drop out once a month...

... Hillary Clinton might have a shot.

[George II]

4. I prefer voters use their brains than their emotions.

[Android3.14]

10. And this is why she is so vulnerable in the GE

Unless we have Bernie, there will be tepid grassroots support.
Say goodbye to any chance at the Senate, much less the House.

It's painfully obvious that people are supporting her for the wrong reasons. If she does win this primary, the enthusiasm will be saccharine, short-lived, and the our President will still be a toady for the 1 percent.

[gordyfl]

13. Enthusiasm will be Tepid

Yea, you're probably right. If Bernie wins the nomination, we'll probably see a very large turnout in the General Election. Bernie supporters are tired of establishment politics, and that's what Hillary would bring to the table.

A recent poll I read - 84% of Americans are against BIG money in politics. That's another thing Hillary brings to the table. BIG Money.

[SoapBox]

14. Yes, yes, yes!

She would be a disaster.

[brooklynite]

23. Clinton is ahead of or competitive with the Republicans with all of her "baggage" exposed...

Sanders is ahead of or competitive with the Republicans without any significant focus on him by the Republicans. That doesn't bode well for the future. Add to which, Sanders won't have nearly the financial resources to compete with the Republicans.

[Sinpledon]

25. Is Bernie less vulnerable?

What do polls say?

[Android3.14]

27. Less vulnerable, and the more people know of him, the better

With Clinton, the more you know, the more you say, "Okay-whaaaaat?"

[Sinpledon]

28. You didnt answer the main question

What do polls say? Simply typing "He is less vulnerable" is not evidence.

[Android3.14]

29. I'm not your research monkey

Polls say what polls say. You find polls that support a selfish puppet, I find polls that support a man of the people. We criticize the other's polls. Repeat as necessary.

If you dislike my answer, it's because you recognize that the person you are supporting is serving persons and organizations that may not have your best interests in mind.

You can play some weird coquettish fan dance, as if the election has no actual consequences, but I tend to take a more pragmatic viewpoint. I, and many others, think Bernie Sanders is the better candidate for all of the right reasons.

You think your candidate is better for the wrong reasons.

[Sinpledon]

30. I didn't dislike your answer

There was no answer as to what polls say.
Your argument is that Bernie is less vulnerable than Clinton because you just say so.

[liberalnarb]

15. I think Bernie

Will come out on top.

[madokie]

16. I also think Bernie will come out on top

and welcome to DU

[liberalnarb]

17. Oh thanks but..

I've had a few other DU accounts in the past but changed my email address and got a new one.

[madokie]

18. That matters not to me

Liberalnarb I welcome to DU

[liberalnarb]

19. Cool Thanks

[madokie]

20. Peace

and have a wonderful Thanksgiving

[liberalnarb]

21. You too

I'm looking forward to seeing what my republican family members have to say this year.

[DCBob]

22. Your chart is misleading. You selected the highest level of smoothing which hides detail.

Here is the same chart, same date range, but with moderate smoothing.

[Attorney in Texas]

32. Wrong (again). I selected the lowest level of smoothing to highlight the detail

[DCBob]

33. I think you are confused about how the smoothing option works.

Check it again. Cheers.

[Buzz Clik]

26. In the end, it's the votes.

[wildeyed]

31. Also, the polls are not yet predictive.

They are interesting to look at, but don't mean much yet. Go look at the RCP polls for the last presidential primary for verification. They are still posted online. And this article too.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/11/24/early-state_polls_arent_predictive_--_yet__128828.html

What would actually be useful to know is what the ground game is looking like in the early states. Obama was losing big in the Iowa polls at this time last go round, but he was working Iowa harder than Clinton, and I guess that is what pushed him over the finish line to win. That win set him up as a legit candidate for states that came after. On the GOP side, Santorum came from behind in Iowa for an upset there too. Neither was an early favorite.

My understanding, Sanders did not start with much ground organization, so he must be playing catch up. So is he catching up? Who is his message resonating with? Everyone goes on about how the youth is going to push him over the finish line, but anyone who does GOTV knows that getting young voters to the polls is about the same as herding cats. So it will take a good ground game to maximize that line of attack.

Does he have any better name recognition in the black and immigrant communities? You gotta pull hard from communities of color if you want to win as a dem. Clinton is already well know. Last I heard, Sanders was not. Is that needle moving? And please, no Killer Mike articles. To think that a celebrity endorsement from a second or third tier rapper is a game changer is delusional.

And women. How does Sanders poll with the average Democratic woman? My gut reaction, as a woman who is very concerned about reproductive rights, is that Clinton is my soldier in that battle. I don't trust Sanders. Not because he is NOT a soldier, but because I don't know him that well. All the air in his political room has gone to economic issues and to defending himself on the BLM issues. I want to emphasis that this is my GUT reaction. When people are fervently involved with a campaign or issue, particularly if they are inexperienced, they forget that gut reactions are how most voters make decisions. So it is important to be able to gauge them accurately if you want to know how an election will go. I learned this supporting Kerry over Bush. Painful lesson, but I got it now.

Does Sanders have support of the rank and file local Democrats and activists? You might not like them and think they are Repub lite or whatever, but they know how to GOTV. It is a big, big help if they like your candidate and will activate their networks in support. Dis them at your own peril.

And finally, the security question. Who makes you feel safe? We are in a very unsettled time, both at home and abroad. Foreign policy experience is going to be important. And how safe a candidate makes an average voter FEEL is also important. This whole idea that there is a lack of enthusiasm from Hillary supporters and therefor her support is soft is potentially very wrong. People are not going to be jumping for joy over the politician they believe will best lead the country through a third world war that is going to involve putting troops overseas and sustaining terrorist hits at home. But once you decide, the support is not soft. Sanders did not distinguish himself on these issues in the debates, so I don't see him winning the voters who are concerned about security. Again, I know the true believers think he would be great, but we are talking about GUT reactions of AVERAGE voters. Because this is a democracy and the person who gets the most votes wins, even if you think the voters are stupid or wrong. So you need to address their concerns and treat them with respect.

For the record, I support Clinton in the primary. I am not persuadable to Sanders. Trying to argue with me about this is a waste of your time and of mine. But I do like Sanders, agree with him on most issues and will support him enthusiastically if he is the nominee. I was an early Obama supporter last time, but was as surprised as anyone when he actually won Iowa and eventually the nomination. So I do not put it outside the realm of possibility that Sanders could win. I just need some actual real info to gauge if I think that is possible. And poll watching, at this early point, does not say much.