David Axelrod: Trump Would be ‘Defeated Handily’ by Clinton in General Election

[riversedge]

This discussion thread was locked as off-topic by etherealtruth (a host of the Latest Breaking News forum).

Source: abc



By Benjamin Bell

Nov 21, 2015, 7:02 PM ET

PHOTO: Donald Trump speaks in Knoxville, Tenn. on Nov. 16, 2015 and Hillary Clinton speaks in Grinnell, Iowa on Nov. 3, 2015.AP Photos
Donald Trump speaks in Knoxville, Tenn. on Nov. 16, 2015 and Hillary Clinton speaks in Grinnell, Iowa on Nov. 3, 2015.


This week we asked David Axelrod -- the former senior adviser to President Obama who now works as a CNN senior political commentator -- five questions via email before his appearance on the "This Week" roundtable.

............................


Q: Let’s talk about Donald Trump. What explains his success in the polls and do you think he could defeat Hillary if they faced off in the general election?

AXELROD: Donald Trump is the perfect anti-Obama, running in a party that has deep antipathy to the president. He is bombastic, impulsive and unrestrained. His kick-ass, call-names style has found an audience, particularly with non-college educated white men, who have responded with enthusiasm to Trump's nativist, anti-immigrant, anti-trade jeremiads. In an era when so much seems out of our control, he is the proverbial strongman, assuring everyone he'll take care of everything that ails us. We have seen such characters in history before. That said, Trump has high negatives among voters overall, and has commanded about 20 to 30 percent of the GOP vote. Current polling matchup notwithstanding, I believe he would be defeated handily in a general election matchup with Hillary, in part because his anti-immigrant rants have left him with negatives among Hispanic Americans approaching 80 percent. ...............


Read more: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/david-axelrod-trump-defeated-handily-clinton-general-election/story?id=35348253

[Vinca]

1. I wish I had his confidence. This is the year of the crazies.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if Donald Trump won next November.

[FLPanhandle]

18. I have his confidence

I'm keeping my fingers crossed Trump wins the republican nomination. He has alienated so many groups and the somewhat sane republicans.

Hillary would win big.

[donnasgirl]

2. Axelrod is wishing

If he was so sure of this he would be helping Trump get the nod,Trump is dangerous and they all know it, it's wishful thinking on his part.

[1StrongBlackMan]

5. I don't understand your comment ...

Why would Axelrod (the Director of a non-partisan, Political Center) be helping Trump get the nod?

[donnasgirl]

8. In my view if he is

So sure Trump can not win then he should be hoping for the inevitable loser. I am not so sure he can not win 1StrongBlackMan, I drive a truck all over the country and Trump is the brunt of all the talk everywhere I deliver.

[1StrongBlackMan]

11. There is a difference between political analysis and partisan politics ...

1StrongBlackMan, I drive a truck all over the country and Trump is the brunt of all the talk everywhere I deliver.

I don't doubt that ... the shipping/freight industry is squarely in Trump's base demographic, i.e., heavily uneducated, white males.

But there are not enough angry white men to win a national election (unless one tosses in the angry white men on the left).

[donnasgirl]

13. In my view there are enough angry people,

Forget color for a few minutes, the talk in the trenches my friend ( I hope you don't Mind ) is all about Bernie Sanders and Trump, very little talk about Hillary and when you do hear it it is mostly negative.
(I don't doubt that ... the shipping/freight industry is squarely in Trump's base demographic, i.e., heavily uneducated, white males.)
That comment you made is wrong, there are many Blacks in and around the Trucking industry and they are not very happy with the politics as usual and is the biggest reason most of them are backing Mr Sanders. If the last election is any indicator of what will happen it is not looking good, in the last election everything I heard came true and the Democrats lost handily.

[1StrongBlackMan]

19. Okay. n/t

[persuadable]

3. Trump will not be the Republican we run against

Rubio will be their nominee. He will be much more difficult for Hillary to defeat.

[1StrongBlackMan]

6. I agree that Trump will not be the republican Democrats will face ...

But, think that if it is Rubio (and HRC is the Democratic nominee), HRC will dispatch Rubio, easily ... Rubio has major problems in the gop base.

The far bigger challenge would be Cruz, as he is/would be the heir to Trumps numbers.

[EL34x4]

12. Cruz rallies the So-Con base

But he loses swing voters.

You need both groups to win. Cruz's support is most strong in the states Republicans have virtually no chance of losing. I don't see Cruz winning a single state that Romney lost, except maybe Florida and the GOP is going to need to turn more than Florida red if they want to win.

[1StrongBlackMan]

16. I disagree ... Look at Trump's numbers in Ohio and Colorado and Florida ...

Cruz will likely pick up Trumps voters in the swing states where Trump is polling well (especially, if Trump endorses Cruz, upon his exit) and Cruz will maintain his So-Con support.

[FLPanhandle]

20. Cruz scares me more than Trump. nt.

[1StrongBlackMan]

24. The two scare me, equally; though for different reasons ...

But both would be an utter screwing of America.

[BlueCaliDem]

28. I don't know about "difficult", but you could be right about Rubio.

[Babel_17]

31. With Rubio they might keep almost all of their seats in Congress

The spirits of dead Democrats would awaken to oppose Ted Cruz. Cruz is a wake up call for anyone even somewhat centrist to feel they must vote for the Democrats. Rubio isn't (yet*) the red cape to our core demographics that Cruz would be.

Cruz's base will loathe whoever we choose enough to come out and vote for Rubio if he is the candidate. He has energy and should be able to repeat what Romney was able to do, and maybe a bit more. Then it comes down to if our party will have the appeal that President Obama and our slate of candidates generated in 2008.

We need to do more than eke out a Presidential victory. And if the Republicans manage a replay of the way they embarrassed our party's plans for 2014 then even our Presidential aspirations could be in jeopardy.

*Rubio likes to wax eloquent. Given time he might become seen as an enormous threat to what our party really values.

[1StrongBlackMan]

4. I really like Axelrod ... even when my partisanship has me yelling, "Dude, STFU!" ...

It should, also, be noted that Trump doesn't fare well among African-Americans or women, either; so, I'll say it ... Should the G/E boil down to HRC vs. Trump, and HRC loses, I think we know where the "blame" would rest ... And, we see it here, on DU, on a daily basis.

[Depaysement]

7. Doesn't matter

Trump won't be courting African-American votes. He also won't get the Republucan nomination.

IIUYC African-Americans would be the last voting bloc to blame if HRC loses. It's the most loyal voting bloc in the Party and anyone who has ever worked an African-American precinct knows this. If HRC loses, she (and her supporters) should take a long look in the mirror.

[1StrongBlackMan]

14. I think you missed my point ...

I know African-Americans won't (in more than low single digit numbers) go for Trump, or any other republican ... ever!

If HRC loses, she (and her supporters) should take a long look in the mirror.

My point was with the Democratic base (with the exception of progressives) is supporting HRC ... if (she is the nominee and) she losses, it will be because progressives have made it so, by not voting for her.

Which is a shame, because Bernie supporters are, per the polling, the segment of the Democratic tent that lean towards being single candidate voters.

So no ... if she (is the nominee and) loses; it is neither she, nor, her supporters that need the mirror.

[Depaysement]

17. Fair enough

But it is the job of Hillary and her supporters to earn and turn out those votes. That's politics. You can't blame the left wing of the Party for not turning out if you don't make the effort. They need a good reason to turn out.

Many here talk up Hillary's electability. They can't have it both ways. They can't say she's electable and then blame a crucial part of the electorate for not turning out. If they walk away that's on her and her supporters. It's their job to prevent that.

[1StrongBlackMan]

22. Two points ...

First ...

But it is the job of Hillary and her supporters to earn and turn out those votes. That's politics. You can't blame the left wing of the Party for not turning out if you don't make the effort. They need a good reason to turn out.

Honestly ... what could HRC (or her supporters) do to earn ... let's be frank here ... the vote of Bernie supporters? When HRC moved (farther to the) ... it was, and continues to be, met with cries of "we don't believe her!"

Secondly ...

They can't say she's electable and then blame a crucial part of the electorate for not turning out.

Sure they can ... she IS electable; unless, Bernie supporters withhold their vote.

[Thinkingabout]

27. Futhermore, Trump or any other GOP candidate is going to do any good for progressive ideas,

they would also stack the SC to more of the Alito type, we will lose, no doubt about it.

[Babel_17]

32. It's Independent voters in swing states that could cost us the election

They generally don't post here.

[Depaysement]

37. "the vote of Bernie supporters?"

And you wonder why they might not vote for your candidate?

Bernie voters are probably 1/3 of the Democratic Party.

They stay home en masse and HRC probably loses.

[INdemo]

9. Bernie Sanders would defeat Trump by 12%

Bernie Sanders defeats Trump by 53%-41%

So why didn't Axelrod mention Sanders?

Remember back when Bernie Sanders first announced his candidacy.
Axelrod said to host Chris Matthews. "I think people have will have a fling with Bernie. Bernie is like a great fun date because you know he's not going to be around town too long and I think you're going to see people flirt with that. But at the end of the day, I think she's going be the nominee."
This was on June 15,2015...

Man this has been a long day.And Bernie is still going !!!!! and going !!!! and going!!!!

So why doesn't David Axelrod talk about the numbers of November 2007. Hillary lead Obama by 10 or 11 points then.

The corporate media want Hillary so bad hey are now grasping for reports to try and show Bernie Sanders can't win.
Remember ABC hosted the last debate and gave Hillary a pass on the 911 comment.
ABC is the network that gave the phony survey results that Hillary won the debate and those results were proven to be wrong.

David Axelrod your girl wont win Iowa...

[1StrongBlackMan]

15. Axelrod, also, didn't mention O'Malley; but ...

this was an interview and he wasn't asked about Bernie {eta: or O'Malley}.

[INdemo]

21. So they obviously,purposely didn't

mention Bernie Sanders because they did not want to give him any kind of recognition.
This was ABC (Disney) big money contributor to her PAC

[1StrongBlackMan]

23. Yes ... That's it. It's a CONSPIRACY! n/t

[INdemo]

25. I didnt say anthing aboout a conspiracy I just

empathized the fact that David Axelrod is a shill for Hillary and ABC (owned by Disney contibuted to her PAC) will cover for her and will not recognize Bernie Sanders as a strong contender for the Democratic nomination or his strenths against a Republican nominee.

Did you notice Axelrod nor ABC did not give any facts to back up his opinion?

When I stated Bernie Sanders would defeat Trump by 12% here are the facts

In a new McClatchy-Marist poll, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) leads Republican candidate Donald Trump by a landslide margin of 12 percentage points, 53 to 41. In the McClatchy poll, Sanders also leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) by a landslide margin of 10 points, 51 to 41.

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/presidential-campaign/259812-in-new-shock-poll-sanders-has-landslides-over-both

I think when the smoke clears big money will somehow push Bush in there for their nominee, specifically after Trumps Fascist's
comment about the Muslims. This should disqualify Trump.

[Babel_17]

34. Well said

There's a lot of self interest involved with electing a President. For CEOs, and similarly highly placed people, a lot of money, influence, and prestige is on the line.

It's obvious, and obviously the media have a lot of self interest that they don't care to discuss.

[underpants]

10. The Dem nominee will be President

The OFA database is the primary reason
After that, the Lack of gerrymandering in a national election pus the GOP at a distinct disadvantage and the all-or-nothing Electoral College system actually gerrymanders the system a bit for the Dems.
The press will keep the drama alive as much as possible.

[Jarqui]

26. Went through the state by state polls

lots not available on head to head between Trump-Clinton

But for the polls that are, it is currently pretty close and Bernie tends to do significantly better

Iowa Trump v Clinton Trump +4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html
Iowa Trump v Sanders Sanders +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_sanders-5600.html

New Hampshire Trump v Clinton Clinton +4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_clinton-5596.html
New Hampshire Trump v Sanders Sanders +13
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_trump_vs_sanders-5668.html

Florida Trump v Clinton Trump +2.4
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html
Florida Trump v Sanders Trump +3.3 (Bernie hasn't started campaigning down there)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

Colorado Trump v Clinton Trump +11 (only one poll)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html
Colorado Trump v Sanders Trump +2
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_sanders-5753.html

Minnesota Trump v Clinton Clinton +1
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_clinton-5591.html
Minnesota Trump v Sanders Sanders +8
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mn/minnesota_trump_vs_sanders-5594.html

Wisconsin Trump v Clinton Clinton +12.5
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_clinton-5659.html
Wisconsin Trump v Sanders Sanders +18
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_trump_vs_sanders-5735.html

Those contests are at the state level where the electoral votes get decided. To me, they're more important than the national polls. I didn't cherry pick. I just randomly grabbed polls where Clinton and Sanders were head to head with Trump (a number of states do not have those polls).

That's the thing the Hillary fans refuse to acknowledge: Outside of the Democratic party, there's a bunch of folks who really can't stand Hillary. Bernie isn't nearly as well known, does better and has some upside for when folks get to know him.

That's why I will not stick a fork in Bernie or allow myself to get too comfortable with Hillary's lead in the primary - because, as I've said several times, when she gets to the general state by state battles against the GOP, she's in trouble.

[Thinkingabout]

29. Likewise there area a bunch of folks who really can't stand Bernie's position on issues.

[BlueCaliDem]

30. RCP: GOP-favoring pollster. That said, what these polls tell me is,

Hillary Clinton supporters will vote for Bernie Sanders should he win the primaries.

Bernie Sanders supporters will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton should she win the primaries.

RCP merely validates the sentiments of Sanders supporters and Hillary Clinton supporters at DU.

[Jarqui]

33. I don't think that's it at all - let's look at a couple of those polls

New Hampshire
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102115.pdf
Among Romney Voters
Clinton Favorable 7% Unfavorable 90%
Sanders Favorable 17% Unfavorable 72%
Among all voters
Clinton Favorable 39% Unfavorable 53% -14
Sanders Favorable 47% Unfavorable 40% +7

As I said, evidence above that Hillary is not liked outside of the Democratic party

They both got the same percentage of Obama voters - which refutes your claim that it's because Sanders supporter prefer Trump. The difference: Sanders got 5% more Romney voters than Clinton did. Again, a lot of voters outside the Democratic party do not like Hillary. You might as well get used to hearing it because you're going to hear it many times over the next year.

Colorado
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/co/co11182015_c23tbvm.pdf
Hilliary loses 3% more of the Dem vote than Sanders against Trump
Hillary only gets 2% of the GOP vote vs Sanders 6%
Hillary only gets 33% of independents vs Sanders 49%

Now above, we see a little movement of Dem vote which might support your claim or it might be those voters like Trump a bit more than Hillary but the bigger factors are Sanders getting more of the GOP vote and way more of the independents.

[BlueCaliDem]

35. NO Democrat is "liked" outside of the Dem Party. These are hyperpartisan times,

just in case you haven't noticed. Ever since the historical election and reelection of Barack Obama, xenophobia, racism, fear of losing white superiority, and hating on liberals has gotten horribly bad.

Although Sanders' disapproval numbers are lower than Clinton's, I'll attribute that to the media keeping a hands-off approach on him, rather than "Republicans liking him more".

Fact of the matter is, two Republican strategists have already come out on teevee (can't remember their names) that they'd rather have Republicans run against Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton. Frank Luntz has warned the GOP that Hillary Clinton shouldn't be seen as an easy win. And he would know. An article in the National Review is asking Republican voters to not only support Sanders with donations, but on social media in order to force Hillary Clinton to the left where she'll be annihilated by the U.S. "press" and millions of anti-Democratic Party ad-buys. Raw Story wrote an article, entitled, "Everybody Loves Bernie - Especially Top Republican Operatives", exposing the Republican strategy of boosting Bernie Sanders.

So you'll have to forgive me when I don't put much stock in head-to-head matchups with Republicans this early in the primaries; matchups that don't take into account the fact that Obama and Biden will campaign for the Democratic Party's primary winner.

So I stand on my statement:

Hillary Clinton supporters will vote for Bernie Sanders should he win the primaries.

Bernie Sanders supporters will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton should she win the primaries, and that the RCP poll merely validates the sentiments of Sanders supporters and Hillary Clinton supporters at DU. Nothng more. Nothing less.

[Jarqui]

36. Back up this claim:

So I stand on my statement:

Hillary Clinton supporters will vote for Bernie Sanders should he win the primaries.

Bernie Sanders supporters will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton should she win the primaries, and that the RCP poll merely validates the sentiments of Sanders supporters and Hillary Clinton supporters at DU. Nothng more. Nothing less.

You should be able to back it up. Show us polls that support what you're claiming.

Frank Luntz is a bit of an unreliable idiot - I'm not taking his word or putting any stock into his actions. Likewise, an opinion/news piece from Raw Story should rock people's worlds.

The polls I posted do not support what you're claiming.

Iowa using different pollster NBC
http://www.scribd.com/doc/283708713/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Poll-Iowa-Annotated-Questionnaire-October-2015
Registered Voters
Clinton 35 Favorable 59 Unfavorable -24
Sanders 37 Favorable 34 Unfavorable +3

Minnesota
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MN_80415.pdf
Clinton favorability with Sanders voters +11
Clinton favorability with O'Malley voters -34
Maybe you're picking on the wrong candidate's voters

Secondly in that poll, of all the candidates, Sanders supporters handily lead with Hillary being their second choice. Again, the facts, the actual poll results, don't jive with your spin that has been provided with no factual foundation.

Statewide across all parties:
Clinton favorability -22 (with 7% unsure), -88 among Romney voters with 4% unsure
Sanders favorability +1 (with 40% unsure), -41 among Romney voters with 49% unsure

Clinton gets 5% of Romney voters, Sanders 8%

Looks to me like polls from New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado and Minnesota are saying similar things:
1. Hillary has a favorability problem compared with Sanders - non Dems like her substantially less
2. As a result, Sanders gets more of the GOP and Independent votes than Clinton
3. As a result, Sanders does better than Clinton against Trump
4. There is little evidence that Sanders voters abandon Clinton in the head to head polls.

[etherealtruth]

38. I am sorry, LOCKING

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