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brooklynite

(94,483 posts)
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 02:44 PM Jun 2015

Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit

Last edited Mon Jun 29, 2015, 04:24 PM - Edit history (1)

Source: The Guardian

The eurozone’s three biggest countries have raised the stakes in next Sunday’s Greek referendum with an orchestrated warning to voters that a no vote would mean exit from the single currency and the return of the drachma.

As the Greek economy suffered on its first day of stringent capital controls, politicians from Germany, France and Italy joined the European commission in insisting that the poll was not about whether Athens could secure more favourable bailout terms but was about continued euro membership.

The stark assessment was shared by George Osborne, who told MPs that the UK economy would be affected by the chaos that would result from Greece leaving the eurozone.

The chancellor’s comments came as ratings agency Standard & Poor’s issued a grim analysis of the repercussions that could follow an euro exit, the chances of which it has raised from 33% to 50%. S&P said there could be “a serious foreign currency shortage for the private and public sectors, potentially leading to the rationing of key imports such as fuel”.

Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/29/greek-crisis-referendum-eurozone-vote-germany-france-italy



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Europe's big guns warn Greek voters that a no vote means euro exit (Original Post) brooklynite Jun 2015 OP
For all the talk of Germany vs Greece, it really seems that it's Greece vs the rest of Europe geek tragedy Jun 2015 #1
It's how Tsipras needs to frame it. Igel Jun 2015 #5
Will the world's current super-economy come to the rescue? JDPriestly Jun 2015 #2
Every country, state, province, city, town, neighborhood, home... SoLeftIAmRight Jun 2015 #3
True. And for us in California, we may have to do that through different technology than JDPriestly Jun 2015 #4
Taking yourself of the grid? brooklynite Jun 2015 #12
Working that way SoLeftIAmRight Jun 2015 #18
If the Chinese are willing to throw their money at Greece, they should go for it. geek tragedy Jun 2015 #6
Have you traveled in Greece? JDPriestly Jun 2015 #7
Greece was part of Turkey for centuries. geek tragedy Jun 2015 #8
Greece was conquered by Turkey. JDPriestly Jun 2015 #10
Your argument is that hordes of ISIS and Turkish fighters geek tragedy Jun 2015 #14
It might not be ISIS and certainly not Turkish fighters, but like Italy, JDPriestly Jun 2015 #16
Our manufacturing sector isn't remotely declining Recursion Jun 2015 #33
Hard to believe. Our infrastructure is just pitiful for the most part. JDPriestly Jun 2015 #36
Heavy plant, chemicals, and chips mostly Recursion Jun 2015 #37
Here is the problem: JDPriestly Jun 2015 #40
Manufacturing is America's forth largest employer according to the US Government. hack89 Jun 2015 #44
Please see my post # 50. JDPriestly Jun 2015 #51
Here is the extent of the decline of our manufacturing sector: JDPriestly Jun 2015 #50
Notice at no point did US manufacturing decline Recursion Jun 2015 #52
I do not believe your assertion. JDPriestly Jun 2015 #59
If this goes through... Xolodno Jun 2015 #9
In terms of the political and strategic balance in the world, it is about the most short-sighted, JDPriestly Jun 2015 #13
Shortsigted....Maybe...Maybe Not. Xolodno Jun 2015 #19
Why would industries pop up? hack89 Jun 2015 #22
They import a lot because... Xolodno Jun 2015 #24
But if companies can supply those needs while based in the EU hack89 Jun 2015 #29
Dude...your're just looking for absolute doom and gloom... Xolodno Jun 2015 #30
And the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs in return hack89 Jun 2015 #31
Which will solidify.... Xolodno Jun 2015 #54
There will be an exodus of Greek based companies hack89 Jun 2015 #20
Not if you offer more favorable... Xolodno Jun 2015 #23
If this left of center government fails when the economy falls apart, Greece JDPriestly Jun 2015 #38
Venezuela is the perfect example of a weak currency in a global economy hack89 Jun 2015 #47
Venzuela is a command economy.... Xolodno Jun 2015 #55
How many US states and cities have been raped by companies hack89 Jun 2015 #56
Ok...I give up. Xolodno Jun 2015 #57
"massive speculation at this point" - you broke my irony meter. nt hack89 Jun 2015 #58
No internal tariffs... brooklynite Jun 2015 #28
You can't tariff within the EU Recursion Jun 2015 #34
Surrendering your currency equals surrendering your sovereignty. roamer65 Jun 2015 #11
True. But it will be very painful. And the geopolitical repercussions could be tremendous JDPriestly Jun 2015 #15
It's best for them to get out of the Euro as quick as possible. roamer65 Jun 2015 #17
Yeah, the Euro idea of "one size fits all" is just a bad idea. geek tragedy Jun 2015 #39
I wouldn't be surprised if they've fired up the Drachma printing presses already <nt> bigworld Jun 2015 #21
Then comes hyperinflation, then a military dictatorship. candelista Jun 2015 #25
Tsipras calling for a third bailout. Should make headlines soon. joshcryer Jun 2015 #26
" if an aid-for-reforms deal were struck with Athens" geek tragedy Jun 2015 #35
The Billionaires Class Extortion of Greece Continues WDIM Jun 2015 #27
Okay. Greece doesn't pay any new debts, and doesn't incur any new debts. geek tragedy Jun 2015 #32
Russia has defaulted multiple times, with impunity. closeupready Jun 2015 #41
Russia has natural gas to sell to Europe. Greece has.....? brooklynite Jun 2015 #42
Greece's strategic location has been noted by others here closeupready Jun 2015 #43
Technical Note: Historians of World War I might disagree with you about Belgium's KingCharlemagne Jun 2015 #48
Okay, yes, thanks for the correction. closeupready Jun 2015 #49
Eurogroup Concludes Meeting; Juncker Says Big Things Happening Bosonic Jun 2015 #45
LOL, something big DID happen; Greece defaulted. closeupready Jun 2015 #46
I'd suggest Greece sign some trade agreements like the TPP. Life will be hell there without Hoyt Jun 2015 #53
 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
1. For all the talk of Germany vs Greece, it really seems that it's Greece vs the rest of Europe
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 02:46 PM
Jun 2015

at this point.

No one in the EU/Eurozone is speaking up for Greece.

Igel

(35,293 posts)
5. It's how Tsipras needs to frame it.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:21 PM
Jun 2015

Socialist versus (old) fascist, Greek versus German. It was Germany that hurt them in WWII, Germany was was the biggest anti-socialist power in that part of the world. So Germany has to be the face on the oppression. No point picking on Denmark or Portugal for that role.

He needs to get as as much opposition and division as possible. He needs to convince people that big bad monsters are coming to take away what is properly theirs, and that "democracy" is whatever the people want right now and so in the cradle of democracy the barbarians are trying to crush it.

That's what he won on--anger, fear, national pride. It faded over time and he needs it back.

Scared, hateful, prideful people are easy prey for manipulative framing.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
2. Will the world's current super-economy come to the rescue?
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 02:59 PM
Jun 2015

Premier Li Keqiang, in Europe on a day when financial markets took fright that Greece might leave the euro, said China and the world wanted to see Athens remain in the currency area and that China would continue to buy euro zone debt.

Following his first summit with top EU officials, Li declined to say whether Beijing could come to Greece's aid with loans, but commented: "China is ready to play a constructive role."

Li struck a positive note at the meeting with the new heads of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, and of the European Council of EU leaders, Donald Tusk, saying China was ready to invest in the European Union's new 315 billion-euro infrastructure fund.

. . . .

"China has ample foreign exchange reserves," he added, also suggesting the creation of an additional joint EU-China investment fund.

. . . . (more)

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-china-premier-pledges-hold-130341971.html

China, please note, has a burgeoning industrial, manufacturing sector and a trade surplus.

Compare: we have a declining industrial, manufacturing sector and a trade deficit.

China, poor as its people may be, is rising. We are declining.

We need to take measures to build up our manufacturing sector. An economy that is based to the extent ours is on service jobs cannot exercise much power or authority in the world. That's just the way things work.

The TPP is a ridiculous way to try to shore up American authority and influence in the world. And the IMF is making a mess of this Greek issue.

At a time when immigration, illegal immigration from Africa and the Middle East into Europe is growing and creating crises, Greece should not be left to flounder in its sea of debt. The Eurozone is being irresponsible.

 

SoLeftIAmRight

(4,883 posts)
3. Every country, state, province, city, town, neighborhood, home...
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:13 PM
Jun 2015

needs to build a robust sustainable food and water system.

Then we will be in a position to fight.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
4. True. And for us in California, we may have to do that through different technology than
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:18 PM
Jun 2015

someone in Illinois living on the Mississippi.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
6. If the Chinese are willing to throw their money at Greece, they should go for it.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:25 PM
Jun 2015

As an American taxpayer, I'm very glad that our government is not taking my tax money and throwing it on the funeral pyre for Greek's membership in the Eurozone.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
7. Have you traveled in Greece?
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:40 PM
Jun 2015

It is the entry to Europe (as is Italy; Spain is less so) from North Africa and the Middle East. If I were a Northern European with ties to Turkey, I would worry a lot about what is going on in Greece.

Sometimes a country is very important simply because of its geographical location. This snubbing of the Greek people is a big mistake. Greece as I remember it had a difficult geology. It was not an accident of history that Greece and Italy were so key in the development of Northern Europe. It was more an accident of geography.

I can't think of many things more foolish than letting the Greek people just free-fall. That will be deeply regretted in the future.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
10. Greece was conquered by Turkey.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:47 PM
Jun 2015

Europe will be in trouble without it.

The Turkish army controlled large areas of Europe including Hungary and got to the gates of Vienna. Vienna was saved by Polish troops. (At least that is the story.)

The relationship between Turkey and ISIS is unclear. What it is now may be clear, but what it could become is very unclear. This is not the time for Europe to relax its relationship with and reduce the trust of Greece. To the contrary. Just look at a map.

I think I asked you whether you had ever been to Greece. I was there years ago, but I am very aware of the geographical and strategic importance of Greece to the rest of Europe. It is a key outpost -- just as important as Finland to the North and East.

I can't believe that Germany is so stubborn about this.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
14. Your argument is that hordes of ISIS and Turkish fighters
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:50 PM
Jun 2015

might invade Austria without Greece to stand in their way?

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
16. It might not be ISIS and certainly not Turkish fighters, but like Italy,
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:57 PM
Jun 2015

a weakened Greece will be a gateway for immigration including Muslim extremists from the Middle East and Africa. Just wait and see. Right now a lot of the immigrants are entering through Italy. (I do not mean to suggest that they are all extremists.) But Greece is a good alternative. And there is money to be made in the smuggling of humans. I hope i am wrong. But it is not worth the risk for Northern Europe. More investment in Greece would be worth it to Northern Europe.

Again, have you ever actually been in Greece? Have you looked out onto the Mediterranean and seen the sea. Have you traveled to any of the Greek islands? Have you been in what used to be called Yugoslavia? Do you have a real sense of the relationship between Greece and Africa and Asia and Northern Europe? Do you have a feel for why Greece was so central to the spread of civilization in Europe and why it was so important to the developments in early North Africa?

Greece is of pivotal strategic importance in that area.

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
33. Our manufacturing sector isn't remotely declining
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:36 PM
Jun 2015

Output goes up every year. If US manufacturing were a separate country it would have the third largest GDP in the world.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
36. Hard to believe. Our infrastructure is just pitiful for the most part.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:50 PM
Jun 2015

You should see the sidewalks in LA. Not enough money to keep them up.

And our schools? The bathrooms in some of our schools are shameful?

Lots of new houses are being built. I personally think that the balance between our private sector which builds and produces a lot of stuff that we don't need and our public sector which we all use but which is in disrepair is out of whack. We need both - - a strong private and a strong public sector.

What are we manufacturing? Certainly not consumer goods. Not fabrics. Food, I guess, but that is not manufacturing. Airplanes? Some. Do we produce computers? I am unaware of it. We produce some cars, but we import many and you can't tell where the cars are made sometimes, so who knows?

What are we producing other than military equipment? Telephones? Furniture? (Very little.) Clothing? Household appliances? (Most seem to be imported.)

I don't see the Made in the USA tags very often. What are we producing if our manufacturing is going up?

And if our manufacturing is rising, why is our trade deficit so extremely negative?

Sorry. But I find it hard to trust the statistics you refer to. If it walks like a duck, it's a duck. I know almost no one who works in manufacturing and I live in a working class neighborhood. So where is all this manufacturing and what are they producing?

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
37. Heavy plant, chemicals, and chips mostly
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:54 PM
Jun 2015
And if our manufacturing is rising, why is our trade deficit so extremely negative?

Because a variety of factors have conspired to keep the dollar artificially high relative to other currencies.

Do we produce computers?

Not many, but we produce a lot of the parts they are made of and most of the robots that make them.

Here's the trade association on the current state of US manufacturing:

http://www.nam.org/Newsroom/Facts-About-Manufacturing/

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
40. Here is the problem:
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 01:10 PM
Jun 2015

In the most recent data, manufacturers contributed $2.09 trillion to the economy. This figure has steadily risen since 2009 when manufacturers contributed $1.73 trillion. The sector accounts for 12.0 percent of GDP.1 For every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, another $1.37 is added to the economy, the highest multiplier effect of any economic sector.2

Manufacturing supports an estimated 17.6 million jobs in the United States—about one in six private-sector jobs. More than 12 million Americans (or 9 percent of the workforce) are employed directly in manufacturing.3

- See more at: http://www.nam.org/Newsroom/Facts-About-Manufacturing/#sthash.ECLiKFGy.dpuf

Manufacturing is supposedly 12 percent of GDP but only employs 9% of the workforce. It really is not a big part of our economy when you think of pre-computerized, pre-free-trade, pre-robot manufacturing. As a child, I recall that people worked a lot in manufacturing. Today, manufacturing jobs are not nearly as common. And most of the stuff I buy is made in some other country while Americans work at restaurants, give massages, teach yoga, etc.

I have a friend with two children who are college graduates. They are intelligent and willing to work, but neither of them can find a decent job. That is a very common situation today. Manufacturing used to offer lots of opportunities -- not just on the floor of the shop but also in management.

I agree that the currency situation is the biggest problem. But I see Americans losing vital skills. People who create new products are people who understand how to make things. We don't even teach our children that any more.

The statistics are prepared by people who have personal reasons to pull the wool over the eyes of Americans. We are quickly becoming a de-industrialized nation, a nation of consumers who can't make things because they don't even know how things are made. That's really, really bad.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
51. Please see my post # 50.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:29 PM
Jun 2015

Manufacturing jobs were 34% of our economy in 1950.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-12-12-manufacture_x.htm

Today, Recursion brags that we are something around 9% manufacturing jobs. We are in terrible shape when it comes to manufacturing as a share of our economy and in terms of dependency on foreign production and manufacturing to fill our basic needs. We are a disaster in this respect.

Americans will pay for our free trade policies in untold and horrific ways.

Free trade as it is now being implemented is a tragic mistake.

On revision, corrected percentage of jobs in manufacture per the link in Recursion's post from 12% now manufacturing to 9% manufacturing.

That is really, really a dismal number.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
50. Here is the extent of the decline of our manufacturing sector:
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:25 PM
Jun 2015

For over a half century, American manufacturing has dominated the globe. It turned the tide in World War ii and hastened the defeat of Nazi Germany; it subsequently helped rebuild Europe and Japan; it enabled the United States to outlast the Soviet empire in the Cold War. At the same time, it met all the material needs of the American people.

. . . .

However, manufacturing as a share of the economy has been plummeting. In 1965, manufacturing accounted for 53 percent of the economy. By 1988 it only accounted for 39 percent, and in 2004, it accounted for just 9 percent.

. . . .

The loss of the manufacturing industry manifests itself most clearly in job losses. According to the Economist, “For the first time since the Industrial Revolution, fewer than 10 percent of American workers are now employed in manufacturing” (Oct. 1, 2005). But even this figure is probably double the actual percentage, because many workers in a typical manufacturing firm have service-type jobs. In comparison, during the 1970s, approximately 25 percent of American workers were employed in manufacturing. From 1990 to present, manufacturing jobs have decreased every single year; since 1996, they have plummeted by almost one fifth.

. . . .

With the birth of the North American Free Trade Agreement in 1994, Mexico became a major recipient of outsourced U.S. manufacturing jobs. Mexico is now a global leader in auto parts manufacturing and one of the world’s largest tv set producers. Now, with the startup of the Central American Free Trade Area (cafta) this January, analysts are anticipating another exodus of U.S. jobs to south of the border. U.S. household names such as Dell, ibm, Sara Lee/Hanes and Maytag have already been moving business into the Central American region.

. . . .

https://www.thetrumpet.com/article/2061.904.80.0/economy/the-death-of-american-manufacturing

The Trumpet is this:

TheTrumpet.com is the official website of the Philadelphia Trumpet newsmagazine. Each weekday, theTrumpet.com features reporting and analysis of recent global geopolitical, economic, social and religious events and trends.

The Trumpet magazine, which began in February 1990, is published 10 times a year by the Philadelphia Church of God. It is available by subscription absolutely free.

https://www.thetrumpet.com/help/about

The article is from the early 2000s. Things have undoubtedly gotten worse by nose. The statistics are reliably sourced although this is not a publication I would normally quote from.

Not many American economists would want to discuss this issue honestly I suspect.

Here we go. USA Today from 2002.

Fifty years ago, a third of U.S. employees worked in factories, making everything from clothing to lipstick to cars. Today, a little more than one-tenth of the nation's 131 million workers are employed by manufacturing firms. Four-fifths are in services.

The decline in manufacturing jobs has swiftly accelerated since the beginning of 2000. Since then, more than 1.9 million factory jobs have been cut — about 10% of the sector's workforce. During the same period, the number of jobs outside manufacturing has risen close to 2%.

Many of the factory jobs are being cut as companies respond to a sharp rise in global competition. Unable to raise prices — and often forced to cut them — companies must find any way they can to reduce costs and hang onto profits.

Jobs are increasingly being moved abroad as companies take advantage of lower labor costs and position themselves to sell products to a growing — and promising — market abroad. Economy.com, an economic consulting firm in West Chester, Pa., estimates 1.3 million manufacturing jobs have been moved abroad since the beginning of 1992 — the bulk coming in the last three years. Most of those jobs have gone to Mexico and East Asia.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/economy/2002-12-12-manufacture_x.htm

This is a topic that the corporate-owned American media shies away from.

But those of us who remember 1955, 1965, etc., the silence covers the terrible fact that we once had a robust manufacturing sector, and that it is now gone.

As the Trumpet points out, our manufacturing sector is what won WWII. If we had to fight a war today for our national survival, we would have to import the socks for our army. You can't fight a war if you have to import the socks for your soldiers. Unfortunately, most American women wouldn't know how to knit a pair of socks if their lives depended on it. (I do know how and can do it but I am the exception.)

Recursion

(56,582 posts)
52. Notice at no point did US manufacturing decline
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:30 PM
Jun 2015

Manufacturing employment did, but that's a different question.

Our service economy increased. Other nations' manufacturing increased. But the US manufacturers more today than at any point in history.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
59. I do not believe your assertion.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 04:29 PM
Jun 2015

If we are not producing the things we need, from socks to washing machines, we are not a strong manufacturing nation.

I do not trust your numbers because they do not match the reality I see in the stores. I think most Americans would agree with me.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
9. If this goes through...
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:43 PM
Jun 2015

...the Greek Exit should be interesting to watch. It will be chaotic at first, but....

1. Greek currency will be heavily devalued.

2. Making imports very expensive. (And thereby drop the standard of living)

3. Making Greek Exports very cheap. (EU will probably prop up tariffs)

4. Employment will increase later as cheap Greek Goods (and cheap Greek Vacations) rise.

This is really pitting the EU vs. Greece (and anyone willing jump in and invest with Greece).

Wondering if the week long bank holiday is there to replenish/restore the Drachma currency and they announce a fixed exchange (which won't be too popular)

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
13. In terms of the political and strategic balance in the world, it is about the most short-sighted,
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:49 PM
Jun 2015

stupid move I can think of that is going on right at the moment.

And especially with the rise of ISIS at Turkey's door, just across the Mediterranean from Greece.

Honestly. No wonder we have so many wars. The stupidity is outrageous.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
19. Shortsigted....Maybe...Maybe Not.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 04:51 PM
Jun 2015

Greece is looking at long term economic pain with austerity for the sake of being able to have cheaper access to goods and services from the EU. They are probably going cost as much as 40% higher now.

Flip side, long term, new industries in Greece will pop up and employment will rise. Plus who knows what economic deals they made with China and Russia.

From the looks of things, Greece seems to have decided they don't want to be part of the EU...and the EU has pretty well telegraphed they weren't particular enthused with them in it in the first place.

As for Turkey and Greece, no love is lost between them. If anything, Greece would like to see Turkey fall apart and "take over administration" of the area I'm sure they will rename as Constantinople.

But that's a pipe dream. Turkey and Greece are still NATO members. If I.S. hits Turkey, NATO will respond.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
24. They import a lot because...
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 10:23 AM
Jun 2015

...they don't have (what I recall from my Economic Trade Theory courses)...a comparative advantage at numerous levels. Hence, when they joined the EU, a lot of companies probably exited the area to take advantages and efficiencies the EU brought.

People in Greece are still going to have needs and wants they can afford. And someone is going to find a way to fill that void. They have to, money is to be made.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
29. But if companies can supply those needs while based in the EU
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 11:08 AM
Jun 2015

Last edited Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:15 PM - Edit history (1)

than that is what they will do. Just the complication of currency conversion will be a deterrent, especially if the drachma is weak or volatile.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
30. Dude...your're just looking for absolute doom and gloom...
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:11 PM
Jun 2015

The government is sovereign and can slap tariffs on imports they don't want. And the currency will stabilize.

And you are most certainly trying real hard to make more drama than there already is.

Don't argue with me, argue with David Ricardo and those who have expanded/criticized on his work.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
31. And the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs in return
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:22 PM
Jun 2015

it is hard to imagine large companies choosing Greece over the EU, certainly not until it is clear how stable the Greek financial sector will be.

Don't take this so personally - it is just a discussion board.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
54. Which will solidify....
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:50 PM
Jun 2015

...Greece embracing non-EU countries for trade....which is something the EU doesn't want either.

And I can easily see how large companies may choose to have a presence Greece, your looking at it as an "there can only be one" situation. As I stated, cheap labor access to countries that don't have good trade agreements with the EU, etc. And large companies can have it both ways. Example, Disneyland Paris is listed on the Paris Stock Exchange. Its technically its own entity separate from the Walt Disney Company based in Burbank, CA.

What makes you think large companies don't try to have the best of both worlds? If I have a company that makes widgets, and Greece needs widgets, but priced out the market in Greece due to tariffs...but I can incorporate a business in Greece to make widgets there and despite not being efficient, but cheaper labor and favorable tax code and costs less than importing and still have a nice profit....I'm going to make widgets in Greece. But wait, there's more! If I can sell my widgets to Armenia cheaper than my company based in Germany can, guess who I'm exporting to. Not hard to figure out.

Nor am I taking it personally, if people insist on that their opinion flies in the face of solid and proven Economic Theory...just not going to waste my time.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
20. There will be an exodus of Greek based companies
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 06:17 PM
Jun 2015

as multi-nationals withdraw to EU countries. There would be no business incentive to move out of the Eurozone and start doing business in drachmas.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
23. Not if you offer more favorable...
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 10:18 AM
Jun 2015

tax terms.

Access to to other markets that the EU doesn't have currently (i.e. Nations under sanctions via the EU but if Greece is no longer part of the EU...they don't have to uphold them.).

And a company can still do business in the EU and take advantage of paying workers in cheaper Drachma's.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
38. If this left of center government fails when the economy falls apart, Greece
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:59 PM
Jun 2015

will probably get a very right-wing or very even more socialist government. A lot of Greek people will suffer a great deal.

So it is hard to say what will happen.

Northern Europe is taking a big, big risk with this punitive approach. Greece is not just a poor country because it is naughty. It has an unforgiving landscape in some parts.

Have you ever been there?

I understand that Ancient Greece was rather lush with trees, etc. But when I was in Greece (and it has been a long time), the landscape was rather harsh.

Greece has three big assets -- 1) lots of sun -- could translate into energy if we had the means to store or transport it and make it as cheap as energy from gas; 2) historical sites that cannot be matched in any other part of Europe; 3) lots of ocean access (including from the islands). And not to be forgotten, Greece's biggest asset: it's wonderful people.

But I don't see Greece as the location for a lot of manufacturing, not heavy-duty manufacturing. And besides that is being done elsewhere. It would be hard for Greece at this point to develop a manufacturing sector that could compete with China or Germany. The skill set has not been developed. The infrastructure investment needed would be huge.

This is very sad. And it will have political repercussions that we cannot imagine. It is a horrible situation. The German government is being stupid. Just stupid.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
47. Venezuela is the perfect example of a weak currency in a global economy
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 02:42 PM
Jun 2015

the Venezuelan economy is shutting down because they lack the foreign reserves to supply companies with the dollars they need to buy goods and material in the global economy. When you look at Greece's foreign reserves, you see alarmingly low levels, which is what what one would expect from a bankrupt country. How are Greek companies going to get the dollars and euros they need to participate in a global economy? No one is going to accept drachmas. And if the Greeks try to keep the drachma artificially high to maintain people's buying power, all they will do is trigger inflation that impoverishes everyone.

Here is a list of EU sanctions. Most are arms and weapons related. As for the rest, resting their economic hopes on Russia, Egypt, Iran and North Korea is risky to say the least.

http://www.bscn.nl/sanctions-consulting/sanctions-list-countries

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
55. Venzuela is a command economy....
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:57 PM
Jun 2015

....based predominately by a centralized government that heavily regulated out companies with capital (thinking their oil would sustain them). That's been proven to fail every single time.

You're comparing apples to oranges.

All Greece has to do attract foreign investors with favorable terms. Now if they start taking ownership via the state, which is what Venezuela did...then you have a case. But it's highly unlikely that will happen.

But I'm going to guess you are going to still dismiss this.

hack89

(39,171 posts)
56. How many US states and cities have been raped by companies
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 04:11 PM
Jun 2015

that were given "favorable terms" only to get screwed? The Greek government can't pay their bills and the answer is to forgo tax revenue to lure companies to set up shop in Greece? The risk in setting up business in Greece would be so high that the pay back to the country would be erased by the cost to attract companies. Because you know damn well those companies don't give a shit about the people of Greece - they will squeeze every concession from the Greek government that they can.

Xolodno

(6,390 posts)
57. Ok...I give up.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 04:21 PM
Jun 2015

You're grasping at straws right now...looking for anything anywhere and throwing against the wall to see if it sticks.

You post is all massive speculation at this point. I'm not going to go down a rabbit hole.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
11. Surrendering your currency equals surrendering your sovereignty.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:48 PM
Jun 2015

The Greeks are learning that lesson now. Hopefully they vote "no" in the referendum and re-establish the drachma. It won't be easy for them, but they will recover faster if they can control their own currency. They can devalue and regain competitiveness on world markets much faster with the drachma.

JDPriestly

(57,936 posts)
15. True. But it will be very painful. And the geopolitical repercussions could be tremendous
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:50 PM
Jun 2015

in the long run.

roamer65

(36,745 posts)
17. It's best for them to get out of the Euro as quick as possible.
Mon Jun 29, 2015, 03:58 PM
Jun 2015

Political union really must come before monetary union. The Euro is becoming the prime example of said error very quickly.

We did not have true currency union in the United States until the 1857 Currency Act. Before that act, our dollar circulated right along side Spanish colonial Reales. In fact, our 50 cent pieces during that time frame were thought more of as 4 reales more than they were 50 cents.

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
39. Yeah, the Euro idea of "one size fits all" is just a bad idea.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 01:08 PM
Jun 2015

Unless there's political authority to make rules, what you get is threats and belligerence.

joshcryer

(62,269 posts)
26. Tsipras calling for a third bailout. Should make headlines soon.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 10:25 AM
Jun 2015

This was expected.

And internet warriors around the world pound their keyboards wondering why, oh why, highly developed country isn't defaulting. Already calls to elect another new government!

 

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)
35. " if an aid-for-reforms deal were struck with Athens"
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 12:38 PM
Jun 2015

not gonna hold my breath on that one.

Appetite for giving the Greeks something for nothing, after the referendum stunt, pretty low in the Bundestag.

I think Merkel wants Greece out. Or Tsipras out of power in Greece. Whichever. She wants stability and that's not going to happen with the current cast of characters is what she's likely concluded.

Key tell: Germany is now seemingly a big fan of the referendum.

WDIM

(1,662 posts)
27. The Billionaires Class Extortion of Greece Continues
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 10:37 AM
Jun 2015

The Greek people should be demanding their money back from these criminal bankster extortionist.

Greek people it is land and liberty! Reject the criminals! Dont give the Billionaires any more money!

 

closeupready

(29,503 posts)
41. Russia has defaulted multiple times, with impunity.
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 01:18 PM
Jun 2015

Indeed, they've done spectacularly well despite those glitches.

 

closeupready

(29,503 posts)
43. Greece's strategic location has been noted by others here
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 02:13 PM
Jun 2015

and also in textbooks. It's not a natural resource, but like Switzerland or Afghanistan, its location merits a lot of attention by global powers.

Unlike, for example, Uruguay or Swaziland or even Belgium. Just the way politics works.

 

KingCharlemagne

(7,908 posts)
48. Technical Note: Historians of World War I might disagree with you about Belgium's
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 02:42 PM
Jun 2015

'strategic location'.

Bosonic

(3,746 posts)
45. Eurogroup Concludes Meeting; Juncker Says Big Things Happening
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 02:34 PM
Jun 2015
Eurogroup Concludes Meeting; Juncker Says Big Things Happening

The critical Eurogroup teleconference on Greece has ended. The finance ministers of the Eurozone decided to reject a call by Greek PM Tsipras to extend Greece’s bailout program.

However, they will meet again tomorrow most likely to discuss Greece’s new proposals.

European Commission president told journalists that big things are happening in Athens, “things you could not imagine.”

He did not specify or explain further if he was referring to positive or negative developments in the Greek crisis.

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/06/30/eurogroup-concludes-meeting-juncker-says-big-things-happening/


#BREAKING At least 20,000 pro-bailout supporters rally in Athens, police say
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/615940896245305344

#BREAKING Eurogroup refuses Greece bailout extension request: Slovakia
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/615947416915824640
 

Hoyt

(54,770 posts)
53. I'd suggest Greece sign some trade agreements like the TPP. Life will be hell there without
Tue Jun 30, 2015, 03:41 PM
Jun 2015

investment in the country, and no one is going to invest without strong assurances.

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