Hillary Clinton tumbles in new poll, as e-mail scandal lingers
Source: Christian Science Monitor/Yahoo
A new poll from Quinnipiac University suggests that public mistrust continues to linger. In the meantime, a number of new Republican challengers have begun to edge ahead of her in key swing states, the poll says a fact that could accelerate her campaign announcement.
The poll, released Thursday, shows Mrs. Clinton falling narrowly behind Sen. Rand Paul (R) of Kentucky in Iowa, and by three points in Colorado. She is effectively tied with every Republican candidate in Colorado, according to the poll, and has a narrow lead over most GOP candidates in Iowa, with the exception of Senator Paul.
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, said in a statement that the results are "a boost" for Paul, who officially launched his 2016 presidential campaign earlier this week.
The one positive in the poll for Clinton is that she leads all Republican candidates in Virginia the largest of the three swing states polled including a four point lead over Paul.
But it's still early in the 2016 presidential cycle and polls are often volatile. In March 2014, Clinton led Paul by 10 points in a hypothetical Hawkeye State matchup, according to a Quinnipiac poll. At that time, her lead against other GOP prospects in Iowa was even stronger: Clinton was up 16 points against Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, 14 points against former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida, and 13 points against Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/hillary-clinton-tumbles-poll-e-mail-scandal-lingers-205422274.html
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)of salt.
calimary
(81,220 posts)And rand paul is the flavor-of-the-week because he just announced. This is way too early for ANY polls about ANY candidate.
rpannier
(24,329 posts)I take it with a grain for the same reason I take all of them that way
It's still frickin 2015.
I'll be more impressed/interested in polls taken after Jan 1, 2016
In January I was asked if the election were held today who would I vote for, I walked away.
I had zero interest
The only thing about this poll I would be interested in is the methodology in their polling.
Divernan
(15,480 posts)By "odd" you mean a major poll showing HRC's approval numbers slipping. Here's the recent poll you vaguely (and of course without a link) misrepresent:
Poll: Hillary Clinton's Margins Narrow In Key Swing States (Quinnipiac University Survey)
Source: Real Clear Politics
As Hillary Clinton prepares to launch her presidential campaign within the next month, a new poll finds her vulnerable in three critical swing states. Voters in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania question the former secretary of states trustworthiness and honesty, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey taken after the controversy surrounding Clintons use of a private email server for government communications. Her favorability ratings are down in all three states.
Also in all three states, Clintons previous leads have shrunk. In diverse and delegate-rich Florida, former Gov. Jeb Bush leads Clinton, 45 percent-42 percent. Clinton edges Sen. Marco Rubio, 46 percent-44 percent, and leads Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, considered another early frontrunner, 46 percent-40 percent. Pennsylvania, a key state that has been elusive for Republicans recently, could be competitive this cycle, with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul narrowly topping Clinton, 45 percent-44 percent. Clinton beats Bush by six percentage points, Walker by five and Rubio by four in the Keystone State.
A red flag in blue state Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton, seemingly invincible before the e-mail scandal, ends up tied with Rand Paul, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a press release. Clinton seems to have a stronger command in Ohio at this early stage of the campaign than her GOP rivals, though her margins are smaller than they were last month. In the closest matchup there, Clinton leads Paul, 46 percent-41 percent. The Democrat tops Walker by 11 points in the Buckeye State, and leads Bush and Rubio by nine points.
Something for Secretary Clintons team to worry about: Thirty-six percent of independent voters in the key state of Ohio say they are less likely to vote for her because of the e-mail controversy, said Peter Brown, another assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. The poll was conducted March 17-28 and surveyed 1,087 Florida voters, 1,077 Ohio voters, and 1,036 Pennsylvania voters via landlines and cell phones. The margin of error in each state survey is +/- 3 percent.
Read more: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/03/31/poll_clintons_margin_narrows_in_key_swing_states_126105.html
As to the Quinnipiac Polling Institute:
The university does not disclose the Institute's operating budget, and the poll does not accept clients or outside funding.
The poll has been cited by major news outlets throughout North America and Europe, including The Washington Post, Fox News, USA Today, The New York Times, CNN, and Reuters. Quinnipiac's Polling Institute receives national recognition for its independent surveys of residents throughout the United States. It conducts public opinion polls on politics and public policy as a public service as well as for academic research. Andrew S. Tanenbaum, the founder of the poll-analysis website Electoral-vote.com, compared major pollsters' performances in the 2010 midterm Senate elections and concluded that Quinnipiac was the most accurate, with a mean error of 2.0 percent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quinnipiac_University_Polling_Institute
HRC fans can be heard to say that these results aren't significant. But they are whistling in the wind if they dispute or ridicule the quality of Quinnipiac's polling. Here in Pennsylvania, politicians of all stripes pay close attention to Quinnipiac's results.
More from the OP link:
The majority of respondents in each of the three swing states said they do not think Clinton is honest and trustworthy, though a majority of respondents said they think she has strong leadership qualities, and that they approved of the way she handled her job as secretary of State.
"It is difficult to see Secretary Clinton's slippage as anything other than a further toll on her image from the furor over her e-mail," said Brown. "Voters do think she is a strong leader a key metric but unless she can change the honesty perception, running as a competent but dishonest candidate has serious potential problems."
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Divernan
(15,480 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Strickland 48, Portman 39 oh race
Toomey 48, Sestak 35 pa senate cace
jeff47
(26,549 posts)instead of their track record in past elections.
oooooo-kaay.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)The PA senate race between Toomey and Sestak was a 2 percent race In 2010. I have a hard time believing Toomey is 13 percent ahead.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Boy, look how well his predictions turned out!
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)They are only a predictor of where things currently stand. Not where they will stand in November of next year.
Unless you can find a flaw in methodology, they're probably +/- a few percent from where things currently stand - When none of those candidates are actively campaigning, and there's more than a year to go.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Therefore I take these polls from them with a grain of salt. They may or may not be accurate.
Ok.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Better options are:
-Does the pollster have a decent track record? Are they trending more accurate or less?
-Do they lean left or right? If so, add a few points to the opposite side.
-Are they way off from every other pollster? Nobody else to compare to yet, AFAIK.
-Is this a "likely voters" or "all voters" poll? "Likely voter" models this early are going to be awful, and "all voters" won't do a good job measuring who will show up.
Lastly, your "seems off" is based on where you think the campaigns should end up after there actually are campaigns.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)But I agree with calimary. It's too early to take any poll seriously--even though I can't recall many (besides me) saying that even earlier, when the polls were showing Hillary with a huge lead.
heaven05
(18,124 posts)such bullshit about nothing. Just distraction from the real fight against the racist, fascist repubthugs......geez
Larry Engels
(387 posts)This does not look good for Hillary.
zeemike
(18,998 posts)If Rand Paul is gaining on her that says something.
emulatorloo
(44,116 posts)Adrahil
(13,340 posts)2 Republican Senators 3 outta 4 Republican Reps. A republican governor. The republicans control the state House of Representatives, and the Democrats have a razor thing majority in the state Senate.
For a blue state, they sure do elect a lot of Republicans!
Smithryee
(157 posts)Because Iowans do identify with Bernie more than they identify with Hillary ONCE they learn more about him.
True.
TheCowsCameHome
(40,168 posts)KoKo
(84,711 posts)start to fall apart in their idiocy...which they seem to be doing on their own time... She can come in like a hero a bit later.
former9thward
(31,981 posts)She signed a lease for a campaign headquarters in Brooklyn. That started a 15 day countdown clock at the FEC. She has to announce in that period by the regulations. Now I know the Clintons play at the edge of the envelope but I doubt she wants another controversy.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Well, she could still announce and get the attention and then hold off while they fall all over themselves.
What's that old expression?: "Give them enough rope to hang themselves" ????
Larry Engels
(387 posts)She has to announce under a cloud, and on the defensive. The first questions at any press conference will be about the emails.
merrily
(45,251 posts)former9thward
(31,981 posts)I pointed out she could not.
merrily
(45,251 posts)because she has some reason for not waiting that has nothing to do with the lease.
Adrahil
(13,340 posts)Right now, the only coverage of her is about the email issue (which frankly, has already dried up) the occasional cry of "Benghazi!", and the mention that she's not in the race yet. She needs some positive coverage. She needs to start talking about is and demonstrating the leadership that she has to offer.
Go get 'em Hill!
merrily
(45,251 posts)Fred Sanders
(23,946 posts)totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)news. Yes it's early but I think that the best way for a bona fide progressive to defeat Clinton in the primaries is to show that she is not invincible and she is not a sure bet to beat the Republicans. I know some people who reluctantly support her because they believe that she is the only one who can beat the Republicans. We need to change that narrative.
blkmusclmachine
(16,149 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)pkdu
(3,977 posts)to story number 7 , yes 7...and only one entry by , you guessed it , FoxNews.
Anyone, especially a reporter using that word in this story , is showing true colors.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Clinton winning against all Republicans was proof that everyone had to swear loyalty oaths to the inevitable nominee.
L0oniX
(31,493 posts)InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Just wanted to chime in for the info of those who are brand new to DU.
Rosa Luxemburg
(28,627 posts)The public is obviously led by the media
InAbLuEsTaTe
(24,122 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Gman
(24,780 posts)As is any poll done now. It's make busy work and it's a product to sell.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)oberliner
(58,724 posts)That's pretty cool.
Keeping Virginia in the blue column is critical.
olddots
(10,237 posts)who breathed thru their noses ?
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Isn't that special.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)to having enough recs to reach the greatest page.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)I call it lame and suspicious.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Self-recs happen all the time, even with "popular" posters. Commonly, the poster "unrecs" after the post hits the greatest page.
But please, keep up the Mean Girls act. Perhaps you could call the OP "fat" next. That'll surely make the story disappear completely.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Never even heard of what you claim in the first sentence.
This is no act. I suspect another agenda from OP. Don't like it? Too bad.
And I never make fun of anyone's appearance, so you're wrong about that to.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)And the "unrec when hits greatest" means it's only a small window when it can be seen.
The point
your head.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)No response to my link in post #43?
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)Larry Engels
(387 posts)Because that's what it looks like. McCarthyism. Looking for "subversives" under every rock. What are you afraid of?
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Just noted your anti-Obama post.
And it's apparent you don't like Hillary either.
Response to hrmjustin (Reply #44)
Post removed
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)jeff47
(26,549 posts)Yeah, that's gonna TOTALLY dismantle your erroneous beliefs about DU and self-recs.
Agreeing or disagreeing with one post does not mean you agree or disagree with everything they write. Will Pitt's written some good things. He's also written awful shit like his "Piece of Shit Used Car Salesman" post and his "Intuit was Hacked!!" post.
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)But I make no judgement because I have done it as well.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Just like there are a lot of DUers here who seemingly exist here only to promote the almighty gun.
Coincidence, I'm sure.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)misterhighwasted
(9,148 posts)Been Trashing their threads too.
Only thing to do with them.
Response to misterhighwasted (Reply #51)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
Larry Engels
(387 posts)Into your heart it will creep.
--Buffalo Springfield.
Bradical79
(4,490 posts)Why would you make a thread if you don't think it's worth recommending?
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Larry Engels
(387 posts)Complain all you want, I'll still do it, as long as it's not against the rules.
merrily
(45,251 posts)A lot of private detectives on message boards, apparently.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)However, this goofy trend of "rec policing"- like what you're doing, or the keeping of lame little lists of who rec'd what, etc. is way worse-- -not to mention downright creepy.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Do you have just one example of me doing that? People who make shit up are downright creepy.
Read the link I provided upthread. Was that just bad form? And I don't keep any lame little list either. So there's that.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)And it feeds into a phenomenon which I loosely call "DU thinking way too fucking much about DU, and taking itself way too seriously".
It's entirely possible- hell, probable- judging by your linked post, that you've bagged exactly what you are thinking you've bagged, even though you know not to come out and say it directly.
But really, that's a job for MIRT. Otherwise when people start following other people around throwing links to links to links at them, building "a case" and such, you get meta.
Just my take on it, of course you can do whatever you want.
This is also all leaving aside the not-so-subtle implication that anyone who doesn't support Hillary right now before the primaries have even started must be a RW troll, but I know pretty much everyone here knows better, even if they try to hint at it.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Again another post with insinuations that are not true. I have a couple posts in Pets that are suspicious. You might want to check them out.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)What you do with your pets is your own business, pal. I'm not PETA.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Until today that is, when you addressed me.
Is the Mens' Department that boring lately?
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)"the mens department"- what precisely does that even mean?
Again, clearly you take DU way too seriously.
Hey, I guess everyone needs hobbies.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)'Again, clearly you take DU too fucking seriously'----That's the first time you posted this.
I'm still trying to figure out the first line in your previous post.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)If you have an excel spreadsheet somewhere detailing who posted what and when, let me know, because often I can't even remember what I had for lunch.
Are we not allowed to post in the mens group? I missed the memo. Perhaps the people in charge of keeping tabs on DU should coordinate in one of their off site meeting places and come up with a clear concise list of the rules the rest of us are supposed to follow.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Seems we had this same discussion years ago in META.
For the record, I don't give a shit where you post, don't keep track of your posts and don't give a shit about you either. You came after me and I responded.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)database!
Holy fuck.
Well, man, if you can get into meta, you must know there's a fucking treasure trove trail of slimy crap left behind there, by some folks. The masks of congeniality came off a whole bunch of people, in that place.
I wasn't one of them.
But shit, some folks showed their true, creepy, seriously dysfunctional colors, in META.
Got a link?
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)That 'database' nonsense is actually funny. I am computer illiterate compared to most.
Do you have a link to the database you claim I have?
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)Mmmm, links.
Kingofalldems
(38,451 posts)Have a good evening.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I was just gonna say, if you can really remember a conversation that far back, no wonder we made you king.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)I recommend my own threads if they are at 4 to get it on the Greatest Page and then when it gets to six I remove it...
But if it has no recs or one or two I don't recommend it because it makes you look desperate....
Do I get an A for candor?
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)commend you.
I've was tempted once, but I did not do it. Then again, I do few Op's. I'm more of a "replier."
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)If there's one or two recs I just leave it alone.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)And I am not presumptuous enough to think I can change someone's mind on a bulletin board but there are disruptors/trolls on this board who get their rocks off by getting posters to go at each other's throats.
They won't and don't fool me...
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)but beyond that, the documenting of the "case" as it were is more appropriate for MIRT, or beyond that, direct PMs to admin.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Relatively low post posters would post bad polls for Obama, other posters would call bullshit, those posters were accused of trying to quell dissent by other posters, and it became one big food fight...
Not going to flip out over one poll...
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)As someone else said, it's gonna be a long 18 months.
Actually the Obama stuff was rather enjoyable, in both elections, because the concern trolls became particularly pathetic and obvious as the election got close and it was more than apparent they were gonna lose.
It was sort of fun to watch. Wouldn't mind having that experience again.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)not that I would know from personal experience... I swear!
merrily
(45,251 posts)Also agree with you on the creepy factor.
I recently had a poster reply to one of my posts with "You must be a lot younger than I thought."
I asked what my age had to do with anything. The reply was something like Nnothing. I just thought you must be 55-65.
If my age has nothing to do with anything, why have you been trying to figure it out and how many posts of mine did you have to put together in your mind to come to some conclusion about it, right or wrong?
I found it totally creepy.
I had a couple of very bad experiences on line when I was more naive. Two nutters got my address. Never again!
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)I answered some poll question incorrectly, once, about the first presidential election you voted in... like, clicked the wrong button. Big deal, eh?
Then a month or two later someone came back out of nowhere and referenced it in another post where I had put in something about being Generation X. (Which I am, add that to the file! ) I was, like, that poll had maybe 150 responses. Really? You went to all that trouble to figure out how old I am, you're keeping track? Awwwww.
I guess maybe it's flattering, sort of. What can I say? I'm FASCINATING!
merrily
(45,251 posts)I have a dear, dear DU friend with whom I truly love. We've been emailing because he no longer posts at DU, but I still can't give him my real name because of those two bad experiences. I guess they were traumatic for me.
BTW, I have a very hard time associating post content with screen name. Some kind of block. You have to be very nice to me often or very mean to me often or do something dramatic before I remember who posted what. And I can't be bothered to keep files of people's posts. Or even my own posts. So, I'll probably forget you're Gen X by tomorrow. If I do, please don't be offended. Just think of it as uncreepy.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)But it's all good. Someone else was like "hey we argued before, are we good now?" And I said i dont keep track, either. it is a VERY short list of people on this site Ive never argued with, about anything.
Catch me with low blood sugar and I'll fight over the weather.
merrily
(45,251 posts)Have great weekend.
Warren DeMontague
(80,708 posts)kwassa
(23,340 posts)Remember in the last presidential election cycle, how the Republicans had all these candidates become very popular temporarily, as alternatives to Mitt?
Each guy would poll very highly for a couple of weeks until people really learned about who they were.
Paul is new, and is getting the bump-up in the polls. This won't last.
merrily
(45,251 posts)L0oniX
(31,493 posts)This will piss off all the "right" people.
Response to Larry Engels (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
Adenoid_Hynkel
(14,093 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Darb
(2,807 posts)not
Tommy2Tone
(1,307 posts)from someone other than Fox News. His insanity will be impossible to hide. The Republican debates will show all how crazy a bunch they are.
Oh and the HRC haters on the left won't be able to celebrate.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)I'm really gonna start bookmarking these "Hillary is OVER!!!" threads. They will be fascinating evidence in November 2016.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,338 posts)Evidence of people who hoped someone better would emerge from an actual primary process?
I plead Guilty as charged.
denbot
(9,899 posts)Meh.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)Any time that a scandal hits the fan, it's obvious that that politician's polls will suffer. Better to get all the dirt out now rather than later. People have bad memories (or why did they vote twice for Bush?) and by 2016 will not remember, let alone care, about her e-mail account.