PPP Polling: "There's some chance Santorum could win Iowa without ever leading in a poll"

[BrentWil]

I found this tweet interesting.

http://twitter.com/ppppolls

"Given the current trajectory I think there's some chance Santorum could win Iowa without ever leading in a poll"

Lets say Santorum does win. Does he become the GOP flavour of the month. If he does, it really would seem a good month to become so. Does he have any legitimate shot at winning the GOP nomination with a win in Iowa? GOP voters really don't seem to want to vote for Romney.

[SixthSense]

1. A Santorum nomination would be a forfeit of the general election

People gonna remember real quick why he got tossed out of the Senate - something that happens to very few Senators, who are almost always re-elected until they die or choose to retire.

[BrentWil]

4. I don't disagree

It would more then likely be great thing for the Democrats.

However, the question I was asking was about the primary.

[SixthSense]

6. ok, sure then

He could potentially pull in a lot of Bachmann, Perry, and Gingrich voters since he has a lot of policy overlap with those three. Since he's never been the front runner he's not been attacked yet by the others. Because of the way the caucuses work - they tend to consolidate around fewer candidates rather than split among many, since a lot of these precincts only have one or two delegates to pledge - he could well be considered the next-best-compromise candidate (in lieu of going to Romney or Paul) for supporters of those three others, if their first choice misses the cut in their precinct. So it would not terribly surprise me to see Santorum pull out 25 or even 30 percent in the end.*







*in retrospect, the jokes write themselves

[Mz Pip]

2. Remember all the press

Bachmann got for her "win" in the Aimes Straw Poll? I just don't see the rest of the country catching some Santorum fever. Moderates would have nothing to do with him.

[BrentWil]

3. I don't disagree in the General

If Santorum would win the GOP nomination, he will get killed by the President in the General.

However, GOP voters aren't "moderate".

[customerserviceguy]

10. Moderates already have a candidate

Romney. Yes, he's been saying some reich wing things lately, but if you're for Romney, you know he doesn't really mean it, he's just willing to say whatever it takes to get elected.

I do see Santorum as catching on. He doesn't have the baggage that the other social conservatives have, and that will be very important in SC and FL. He's not a racist like Perry, or a serial adulterer like Newt, or have a closeted gay spouse that he's clueless about like Bachmann. He really must look like some sort of savior to fundies who were stuck with Newt, Paul, and Romney just a week ago.

Saw him on MTP this morning, that appearance will get him a lot of traction. My new prediction: Yes, he will win the Iowa caucuses, and will place second, perhaps a strong one, in NH. He will go on to win SC, and will do very well in FL. Mitt will finally have a real fight on his hands, and the only thing he's got is his oppo team. Being as Santorum's been fighting Dan Savage for all these years, I think he's a bit better equipped to deal with it psychologically than all of the other moles that have been whacked.

[BrentWil]

11. Maybe...

You have to think Obama is cheering him on.

[customerserviceguy]

13. And to that I say

be careful of what you wish for.

As soon as the business of picking a nominee is over, the Rethugs will turn to figuring out how to get all three parts of their base to unite. With Santorum, they already have the fundies (definitely not a given with Mitt) and they stand a strong chance with the tea partiers hopping on board, unless Santorum's earmarks really rankle them. The money guys behind Romney would back anybody but Paul.

If Santorum can win Iowa, do a strong second in NH, and win SC then FL outright, he'll be well on his way to wrapping things up early. Fundies in the February states will be very energized, they've been quite discouraged after Rick Perry called the base heartless for disagreeing with him about tuition breaks for illegal immigrants.

The contests in February tend to favor both Romney and Paul, but to the extent that Santorum can place at least second in most of them, his momemtum will keep going. A key test of his ability will be to call out Romney's powerful oppo team, surely they will attack Santorum as fiercely as they've gone after all of the others. Romney's support (outside Mormons) is pretty shallow, all it will take is to show that Mitt doesn't abide closely enough to the Eleventh Commandment to make him unacceptable to much of the slice of GOP voters that he still appeals to.

[BrentWil]

16. He will get GOP votes in the general...

I am sure. He won't get independents. The support for Santorum will be very deep, but not very broad. Moreover, he will scare the hell out of our side and the vast majority of independents. Opposition will be to him will be both deep and broad.

That is how I see it at least.

[customerserviceguy]

19. I hope you're right

With the economy in the shape it's in, we're going to need as much going for us as we can muster. If things go to hell in the Middle East, I don't see how President Obama avoids the blame for at least some of it.

[DCKit]

5. Headline "Iowa awash in Santorum".

They deserve better.

[rucky]

7. Froth rises to the top.

[onehandle]

8. If Santorum wins, it will weaken Romney (the actual nominee).

Here's hoping.

[cthulu2016]

9. That's what Kerry did, IIRC

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Was about to post the same thing

Kerry never led an Iowa poll, and his easy victory in the caucus was, as i recall, something of a surprise, especially to the Dean fans.

[Odin2005]

14. Frothy's Google problem means he will never win the general election.

[BrentWil]

15. If he is actually the Nom, that will move down the Google hit list.... NT

[melissaf]

18. I'd be willing to help

move the old definition up the Google hit list.

[melissaf]

17. Barf

I don't want Santorum anywhere near being able to run for president.