Des Moines Register Poll out Romney 24 Paul 22 Santorum 15

[grantcart]

Selzer is considered the most authoritative pollster on the Iowa Caucus;

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_primaries_2008

By point of comparison here is the result from 2008

On January 3, 2008, the Iowa caucuses began. The final averaged polling results from Real Clear Politics showed Mike Huckabee at 30%, Romney at 27%, McCain and Thompson tied at 12%, Paul at 7%, and Giuliani at 6%.[7] Among those surveyed in Exit Polling data, 45% cited themselves as very conservative and voted for Huckabee 35% to Romney's 23% and Thompson's 22%. Among those who called themselves "somewhat conservative" (43%), Huckabee won 34% to Romney's 27% and McCain's 18%.[8]\\\

It is my belief that the Republican establishment will be thoroughly shocked at Romney's weak performance coming in with a lower percentage in 2012 than 2008 against a very weak field and will reinforce moves to start an alternative draft at the convention, which because of changes in the primaries from winner take all to proportional primaries will mean that no one arrives at the convention with 51% or anything close to that.

[grantcart]

1. kick to show the comparison to 2008

[Motown_Johnny]

2. So Mitt finished about 2% lower than he was polling on the way in

Lets hope he finishes a couple percent lower this time around too.

[cthulu2016]

3. I disagree.

I think Romney will have 51% at the convention. I think the later primaries go back to winner take all. (After April 1?)

Keep in mind that the party establishment does get to vote along the way... with money. It seems possible to likely that only Romney will have the cash for super Tuesday and the big winner take all days beyond then.

[Motown_Johnny]

4. but he didn't carry a single southern state last time around

he needs to do something about that this time or the delegates he loses in the early states might come into play

[cthulu2016]

6. True, by the time they got down there he wasn't the front-runner either.

Newt will fade. Romney will probably carry Florida. And Virginia is a lock (!)

I do not see a challenger developing. Mitt can lose most of the south as long as it isn't all to one other person.

The guy I fear is Perry so I hope Newt or Santorum can win some confederate states

[grantcart]

9. There are 27 proportional primaries

All of the top tier and second tier candidates will have nothing to lose in staying in.

Look at Pawlenty. If he hadn't dropped out he might be leading.

Even if they run out of money they can still get all the exposure they need by appearing on Fox.

If there are three active candidates, let alone 6 then it is impossible for one to get 51%.

Romney's biggest lead is in New Hampshire where he only has 40% ( and that could go down)

Romney isn't going to be the establishment's pick because they know he is the worst candidate for getting the base out and getting House and Senate candidates getting elected.

Romney is already having money problems in that he has the highest percentage of donors that have already maxed out.

The establishment does have a vote in its version of super delegates. Romney has so far picked up only 17 out of some 400.

The establishment would like to flush this whole pack down the toilet and come up with two governors from swing states like Daniels from Indiana and McDonnell from Virginia that poll very well within their own state and have a good chance to attract independents.

Romney will not have much of a money edge because he will have to compete in so many states at the same time while Perry can concentrate on Texas and Paul can pick out his states.

Unless all of the other candidates drop out then Romney can only hope to go to the convention and insist that he has earned it. If three or four drop out it will consolidate the anti-Romney numbers, so far each time somebody has dropped out Romney has not gained a single point and the others have come up.

[cthulu2016]

11. It depends

If we assume that Romney never cracks 30% anywhere then he will not get the nomination.

Whether he could win outright if he becomes a real frontrunner is another question. Some of the biggest delegate states have winner take all if you get 50%. (Including CA and NY late in the cycle) Others have a mix of congressional district delegates and at-large delegates that have proportional elements but still favor the state winner. (The winner of a state should tend to win the large delegates and several congressional districts.) It looks like many states wanted to avoid the McCain style getting all the delegates with 35%, but are not strictly proportional.

(Perry is screwed. Texas is truly proportionate.)

So if Romney became a majority candidate he would lock the thing up well before the convention. And even as a 40% candidate he would be getting well over 40% of the delegates, and probably easily over 50%.

And if he is a 30% candidate he will not get the nomination in any scenario, of course. But even in that scenario it still doesn't mean a convention with no majority is certain. If a non-Romney really caught on then he could conceivably win with a lot less than 50% of the overall national vote.

[book_worm]

5. What strikes me is the final two days of polling it's Romney 24% and Santorum 21% with Paul at 18

It shows that Santorum is surging and who knows? maybe the evangelicals will swarm to him especially when people like Bachmann can't get 15% in some precients they will decide to caucus for Santorum.

[JI7]

10. isn't the republican system different in that those who support under 15 candidates don't vote again

?

i could be wrong.

[deacon]

7. If he is sweating guys like paul & santorum, he is one mighty poor candidate. n/t

[joshcryer]

8. What's interesting to me is how Santorium appears to be taking Paul's voters.

That's really interesting, to be frank. Romney isn't really sinking much so I think he'll get the votes, whether it leads to his nomination or a brokered convention, I don't know.