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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 09:22 AM

Gulf Coast and Florida DUers - just keep one eye on the weather

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Don't think there's much to worry about - not that much rain and it's moving fast.

53 replies, 4170 views

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Arrow 53 replies Author Time Post
Reply Gulf Coast and Florida DUers - just keep one eye on the weather (Original post)
malaise Jun 2012 OP
Baclava Jun 2012 #1
hobbit709 Jun 2012 #6
malaise Jun 2012 #8
Baclava Jun 2012 #14
malaise Jun 2012 #15
Baclava Jun 2012 #24
malaise Jun 2012 #25
malaise Jun 2012 #26
Baclava Jun 2012 #28
malaise Jun 2012 #33
Baclava Jun 2012 #37
HooptieWagon Jun 2012 #44
malaise Jun 2012 #49
HooptieWagon Jun 2012 #43
Aerows Jun 2012 #41
Gman Jun 2012 #2
LiberalArkie Jun 2012 #3
malaise Jun 2012 #5
TBF Jun 2012 #9
revolution breeze Jun 2012 #4
malaise Jun 2012 #7
TBF Jun 2012 #10
malaise Jun 2012 #11
revolution breeze Jun 2012 #12
malaise Jun 2012 #13
RebelOne Jun 2012 #20
malaise Jun 2012 #22
RebelOne Jun 2012 #21
malaise Jun 2012 #23
Aerows Jun 2012 #48
little elvis Jun 2012 #16
malaise Jun 2012 #17
Cali_Democrat Jun 2012 #18
malaise Jun 2012 #19
sadbear Jun 2012 #27
Baclava Jun 2012 #29
malaise Jun 2012 #31
malaise Jun 2012 #32
Baclava Jun 2012 #34
malaise Jun 2012 #35
malaise Jun 2012 #30
Aerows Jun 2012 #36
Baclava Jun 2012 #38
Aerows Jun 2012 #39
malaise Jun 2012 #40
Aerows Jun 2012 #42
malaise Jun 2012 #45
Aerows Jun 2012 #46
malaise Jun 2012 #47
malaise Jun 2012 #52
Scurrilous Jun 2012 #50
malaise Jun 2012 #51
malaise Jun 2012 #53

Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 09:32 AM

1. Trying to stir up trouble? It's been over 6 years since a hurricane hit FL.

"It has been 2,430 days since a Hurricane last made landfall in the Sunshine State. 42 hurricanes have entered the record books - but not a single one has made landfall in Florida.

This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) "

http://flhurricane.com/

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Response to Baclava (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:40 AM

6. And everyone will get complacent about it.

Just like Mississippi was in 1969 until Camille came in.

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Response to Baclava (Reply #1)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:47 AM

8. That's why everyone in Florida should be on watch this year

If I were a gambler I'd pick Tampa for the ReTHUG convention - that is peak time for the hurricane season.

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Response to malaise (Reply #8)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 04:28 PM

14. you're probably right - I just had to spend $5000 on a new roof because there haven't been any canes

Over 5 fucking years - I was hoping, but no, the sky gods fucked me.

I'm super pissed, out of my pocket - - where's the FEMA blue roof money when you need them?

say hello roofers

it does look nice though, bastards

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Response to Baclava (Reply #14)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 04:30 PM

15. LOL

Hope you included those hurricane straps

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Response to malaise (Reply #15)

Thu Jun 21, 2012, 07:02 PM

24. done...if this thing blows up I totally blame you for starting this thread!

"The area in the Gulf is now being tracked as Invest 96L, with chances for development at 50%. There is still quite a bit of disagreement in the models, but more biased toward the western Gulf at this run."

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Response to Baclava (Reply #24)

Thu Jun 21, 2012, 07:25 PM

25. I saw that a few minutes ago

Things are warming up - TS Chris will give somewhere across the pond a good scare very early this year

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Response to Baclava (Reply #24)

Thu Jun 21, 2012, 07:40 PM

26. This gave us lovely rain from Sunday to Tuesday - more organized now

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

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Response to malaise (Reply #26)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 09:29 AM

28. Tampa?

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Response to Baclava (Reply #28)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 10:03 AM

33. Looking that way isn't she

I was expecting this for the convention and most folks told me it was a rare event for a storm to enter via Tampa.
Well lookie lookie at this forecast.

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Response to malaise (Reply #33)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 01:11 PM

37. "she"? - this thing have a name? why are you picking on women?

my deflector fans are on - just go away, I've had plenty of rain....let them dry folks have this one, I have picnic plans

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Response to Baclava (Reply #37)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:40 PM

44. Debby.

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Response to Baclava (Reply #37)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 06:28 PM

49. There will be no picnic this weekend

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Response to malaise (Reply #8)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:28 PM

43. Hurricane or not,

there definitely is going to be a lot of hot air in Tampa during the convention.

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Response to Baclava (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 02:21 PM

41. I went through Katrina

Start to finish in the area. Now I'm probably a little damaged by that experience, but to call it "stirring up trouble" to take in to account preparedness is idiotic at best, and a travesty at worst.

I'm probably always going to be affected by it. I live on the coast and have all of my life except for a stint in Tuscon. Which is also an environment that is harsh.

Talk to the people in Dallas rebuilding after the tornadoes. This isn't a joke when your weather screws you over, and it can happen anywhere.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 09:34 AM

2. The models over the weekend had something spinning up

In the Bay of Campeche. They were off by a few hundred miles.

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 09:49 AM

3. We really need a real slow wet one to hit Texas. It is dry up here in Central Arkansas.

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Response to LiberalArkie (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:37 AM

5. We had a glorious 18 hours of pleasant rain

no thunder storms and very little flooding - but the grass sure looks greener this morning.

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Response to LiberalArkie (Reply #3)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:49 AM

9. As long as the winds aren't too strong I'll second that -

I don't want to lose all the meat in my freezer again when I bail and head for north Texas. But it's thundering now and we can use that rain

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:24 AM

4. It is a gentle reminder

Although the Gulf Coast usually does not get very much activity until August, now is the time to have a hurricane plan in place. Category 1 or 2, no big deal, Category 3 kids leave for family in Indiana, Category 4 or above, I am out of here.

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Response to revolution breeze (Reply #4)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:46 AM

7. LOL - it is a gentle reminder - get ready

My sis and her hubby in Florida say Cat 2 and they're off to another sis in Atlanta. They have no plan of being in Miami for a hurricane again in life. Their two boys are big men now

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Response to malaise (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:50 AM

10. lol -

my husband was home from college when Hurricane Andrew hit Miami (he grew up in South Miami). Weeks without power ... but they did have strong hurricane shutters on their house and that made resale value very attractive. His parents are now in a nice little golf course community away from the shore.


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Response to TBF (Reply #10)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 10:54 AM

11. My sis followed our instructions from Gilbert

crack windows on the windy side rather than seal everything. They had the only roof standing in their townhouse complex and didn't lose a window.
I thought Gilbert was bad until I saw some parts of Miami

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Response to TBF (Reply #10)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 11:13 AM

12. My current house

was one of six in my neighborhood that did not flood or have roof damage during Katrina (never realized three feet could make that huge of a difference). Needless to say, when we bought it in 2006 we payed a premium.

We lost power from Elena (Category 3) in 1985 for a week and it was miserable but I was just a kid, so it was an adventure. Now, not so adventurous.

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Response to revolution breeze (Reply #12)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 11:38 AM

13. Hurricanes are fun when you're young

They're an expensive pain in the ass for adults.

That's the thing - sometimes preparation from day one will save you a bundle.
We have a friend in the Turks and Caicos who followed our advice re cracking windows and his was the only one with no damage after they were hit a few years ago.

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Response to malaise (Reply #13)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:25 PM

20. They were when I was a kid in Miami.

My mother used to have hurricane parties.

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Response to RebelOne (Reply #20)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:37 PM

22. They're quite common in the Caribbean

We have lots of BBQs to eat off the food before it spoils

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Response to malaise (Reply #7)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:29 PM

21. I live in the Atlanta area and we have had remnants of hurricanes hit us.

Not as bad a full hurricane, but unpleasant just the same. I have lived in South Florida and been though more hurricanes than I could count. And sometimes, it is just better to ride it out.

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Response to RebelOne (Reply #21)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:38 PM

23. The hurricane is rarely the problem - it's the water, electricity

and dislocation problems that follow.

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Response to malaise (Reply #23)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 06:26 PM

48. + 1

you survive the wind and rain only to have no electricity, communications or water for days (or in the case of a Katrina, weeks)

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:09 PM

16. Why don't you have a more upbeat outlook on life?

 

Sheesh, from your name onwards, it's all gloom and doom.

(You create your reality. Don't like your life? CHANGE IT! )

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Response to little elvis (Reply #16)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:21 PM

17. Huh?

If you live on the coast, prepare for hurricanes - once you're prepared you can be upbeat.
Meanwhile aren't you dead??? Maybe I should send you some flowers.

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Response to malaise (Reply #17)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:23 PM

18. little elvis has left the building. n/t

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Response to Cali_Democrat (Reply #18)

Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:24 PM

19. Or will be

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Response to sadbear (Reply #27)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 09:56 AM

29. could head to the Carolinas

Forecast for Gulf of Mexico disturbance

Wind shear is predicted to remain in the moderate to high range through Friday. Water vapor satellite loops show a region of dry air over the Northern Gulf of Mexico; this dry air is probably too far away to significantly interfere with development. I expect we will see an increase in the disturbance's heavy thunderstorm activity today as a result of less interfence from dry air. By Saturday, our two top models, the European model (ECMWF) and GFS, predict that wind shear could fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, which would potentially allow the disturbance to approach tropical depression status by Sunday.

A trough of low pressure pushing off of the U.S. East Coast will be capable of grabbing the disturbance and accelerating it to the northeast on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS model, which takes the disturbance across Florida on Sunday, and into the waters off the coast of South Carolina by Monday. The GFS does not develop the disturbance while it is in the Gulf of Mexico, but suggests it could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression off the coast of South Carolina Monday or Tuesday

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog - http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2127

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Response to Baclava (Reply #29)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 09:59 AM

31. Via Florida

right across Florida it seems

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Response to Baclava (Reply #29)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 10:01 AM

32. New thread with lots of graphics

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Response to malaise (Reply #32)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 10:15 AM

34. you mean I ressurected this thread from the dustbin for nothing?

you try to pump these things up, while I try to tear them apart

isn't one thread about some fluffy clouds enough?

go wind shear!

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Response to Baclava (Reply #34)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 10:50 AM

35. LOL

Next time I'll keep it on one thread.

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Response to sadbear (Reply #27)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 09:58 AM

30. Models are converging on Florida

may go right through from West to East

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 11:06 AM

36. Oh great

I hate it when there is a hurricane in the Gulf. You never know where it's going to go. We've had unseasonably warm weather, and I've been very concerned about this season. We already have temps in the Gulf (right off Mobile) of over 85 F.

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Response to Aerows (Reply #36)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 01:24 PM

38. No need for panic - it's not even close to a tropical storm yet

probably never will be

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Response to Baclava (Reply #38)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 02:14 PM

39. I know

I'm sure it's a bit of residual Katrina PTSD.

This time if it was as horrible, unless family members get injured, we are fully prepared for the devastation. I don't know anyone that hasn't got some serious preparedness stocks.

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Response to Aerows (Reply #39)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 02:20 PM

40. Yep nothing prepares us better than a real hurricane

Thankfully we have had a few close shaves and some tropical storms because the really big one, Gilbert, was 24 years ago

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Response to malaise (Reply #40)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 02:27 PM

42. It's a common theme here

It hit us so damn hard, that a lot of us have a knee jerk reaction, and to pretend that it isn't something to fear is insulting to those of us who went through it.

I think of the residents of Dallas that went through the tornadoes. Making light of what they endured is just as callous as making light of the Japan earthquake, the Christchurch residents in New Zealand and any of us who have endured these types of events.

It's certainly as callous as making light of the people affected by Katrina, and I can state that from a personal point of view because I was one.

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Response to Aerows (Reply #42)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 04:04 PM

45. I never make light of natural disasters

I have healthy respect for nature - fear helps us to prepare.
Nice post. Don't think this will turn out to be too serious

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Response to malaise (Reply #45)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 04:13 PM

46. You never do, cher

And I appreciate you giving the coastal members a heads up, because you CARE.

Pretending like this doesn't affect us in coastal regions is silly, and down right awful.

Again, I am probably po'd because of the reactions in the Dallas tornado threads, and certainly have been impacted by Katrina.

I do not understand people that think everything is jolly with them when their neighbor is suffering.

Thank you for caring, Malaise, I didn't see this until you posted it.

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Response to Aerows (Reply #46)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 04:16 PM

47. When you live on the coast or on an island

you have a different perspective.

We had the rain from this one first so a headsup was easy.
Water looks the biggest problem with this one - just an early warning to stock up. "fistbump:

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Response to malaise (Reply #45)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 08:33 PM

52. Check out this loop

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 07:25 PM

50. Kick

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Response to Scurrilous (Reply #50)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 07:44 PM

51. Latest from NOAA

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 335 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA...AND SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
INTERESTS ALONG THE
UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

----
Note 80% chance now

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Response to malaise (Original post)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 10:51 AM

53. Latest - 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml
<snip>

1. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 275
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS PRODUCED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

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