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Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:35 AM

How Did The Presidential Race Get So Close And Should I (We) Be Unduly Concerned?

President Obama was trading at .60 on intrade a few months ago. Now he's only trading at .52 which means this race is essentially a pickem.


And these gambling/trading odds are confirmed by recent polls.

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Reply How Did The Presidential Race Get So Close And Should I (We) Be Unduly Concerned? (Original post)
DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2012 OP
Tierra_y_Libertad Jun 2012 #1
bowens43 Jun 2012 #3
Tierra_y_Libertad Jun 2012 #10
Zax2me Jun 2012 #7
banned from Kos Jun 2012 #9
wiggs Jun 2012 #12
bowens43 Jun 2012 #2
DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2012 #4
wiggs Jun 2012 #11
DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2012 #13
emulatorloo Jun 2012 #5
Zax2me Jun 2012 #6
earthside Jun 2012 #8
former9thward Jun 2012 #14
lonestarnot Jun 2012 #15
RagAss Jun 2012 #16
muriel_volestrangler Jun 2012 #17

Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:37 AM

1. It isn't and you shouldn't.

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:41 AM

3. it is close and it's going to stay close.

to deny that is foolish.

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Response to bowens43 (Reply #3)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:59 AM

10. I disagree. Romney's base is older white males.

Obama's is:

Younger white males
Women
Minorities

Romney doesn't have the votes and he has nowhere to get them.

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:48 AM

7. Says Wisconsin.

 

Exit polling from the recent recall election saw Obama ahead.
Unfortunately, those same exit polls showed the elction recall tied at 50-50.
FAIL.
I'd rather err on the side of caution here and campaign like it were 2008.
Why not, nothing to lose, everything to gain.

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Response to Tierra_y_Libertad (Reply #1)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:51 AM

9. Republicans have accepted Romney albeit very reluctantly

 

We're a 45/45 country.

The mushy middle 10% decide elections. Romney is personally unappealing and that is the best hope for winning the middle.

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Response to banned from Kos (Reply #9)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:10 PM

12. we are not a 45/45 country. Progressive issues poll very, very well in the general public,

individually.

When you tag issues as progressive, liberal, or favored by democrats their popularity decreases because of the 40 year effort to misinform, create hate and fear, and mislead the (shrinking) voting public.

They piss on everything that is left OR centrist OR bipartisan...exhalt the far right....and this goes on 24/7 on 90% of talk radio all over the country.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:40 AM

2. It's close because

they don't understand what the republicans have done with their obstructionism nor do they understand why the economy is in the mess that's in.

Unfortunately, to a lot of people in america, those who don't pay attention, Romney looks like an intelligent, likable friendly, caring, capable guy and he's not black....

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Response to bowens43 (Reply #2)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:43 AM

4. There Was An Article By Ron Brownstein In The L A Times

Due to demographic shifts Mitt Romney needs to get the same percentage of the white votes that Ronald Reagan got in his 1984 landslide reelection to win.

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Response to bowens43 (Reply #2)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:05 PM

11. it's close because media consolidation, money in politics, polarization, hate, fear, misinformation,

propaganda, lying, strawman arguments, recycling money through corporations and back to politicians, scapegoating, swiftboating, and obstructionism all work as campaign tactics. They are very, very poor tactics for democracy, but good for politicians willing to take the low road.

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Response to bowens43 (Reply #2)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:14 PM

13. "We" Can't Afford Any More Bad News. That's It.

If the election was held tomorrow Obama would win in a squeaker. However it isn't. The cake is almost baked but not totally. As long as GDP and unemployment numbers are decent "we" should be fine but they can't slip.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:44 AM

5. It is very close. We need to do as much GOTV as possible

Last several presidential elections have been close. Add to this the fact that Republicans have unlimited corporate money to lie about Obama and Democrats 24/7

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:45 AM

6. Biggest problem - denial. No action is taken.

 

The polls are racist, he's way ahead, nothing to see here.
Meanwhile we lose because no one is willing to admit he is behind, even at best. There is no ground swell of support.
A couple months ago I saw a 55-45 Obama win.
But if we fall asleep and deny recent trends, well, anything can happen.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 11:48 AM

8. It is and you should.

Let's face it, the economy is still in the pits for most working class Americans; our political system is broken (yes, Citizens United and Repuglican obstructionism is the main reason); and though many here don't want to hear it, Pres. Obama has underperformed compared to many people's expectations.

It is my sense that there is an underlying sense of frustration and anger among a lot of Americans of all political philosophical persuasions.

The longing for change is still in the air and Pres. Obama will probably be the focus of that anxiety -- as are most president's running for reelection in difficult times.

I personally think that the election is a 50-50 proposition now and probably will be in November, barring any extraordinary events.

Pres. Obama and the Democrats have their work cut out for them, especially in light of the hundreds of millions of dollars advantage because of Citizens United that the Repuglicans will have.

Perhaps 'shoe leather equity' will be enough to overcome the billionaire's bonanza for Rmoney.

It is up to us.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:24 PM

14. It has always been close and will remain so.

If you get your political predictions by reading many posters on DU you will be in trouble because many people live in denial. Witness the predictions on this site before the 2010 elections.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:29 PM

15. Who knows. This a.m. they are running crap about the "white vote." They would like to be able to

pull another cheat, suppression, and lack of vote counting when all is said and done. Beware of propoganda. Vote and be sure that all your friends and neighbors vote. We'll cross that other bridge when we get there.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:35 PM

16. I think it's time for Mittens.....

on my fucking hands this winter !! I'm getting older and the arthritis is kicking in more and more each year. As far as the White House goes.....President Obama will win 52-48. Bookmark me.

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Response to DemocratSinceBirth (Original post)

Sun Jun 17, 2012, 12:41 PM

17. I always recommend people should be unduly concerned, whatever the subject

It sets up a nice paradox.

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