CNN: Violent crime rising in US cities, study finds

[NaturalHigh]

(CNN) — Violent crime is on the rise so far this year in major cities across the US compared to the number of homicides, rapes, robberies, assaults and shootings that occurred in the same cities by this point in 2015, a new report has found.

The midyear violent crime survey released Monday by the Major Cities Chiefs Association shows 307 more homicides so far in 2016, according to data from 51 law enforcement agencies from some of the largest US cities.

In addition to a large increase in homicides, major cities in the US have experienced more than 1,000 more robberies, almost 2,000 more aggravated assaults and more than 600 non-fatal shootings in 2016 compared to this time last year. The only category of violent crime not reflecting an increase when compared to last year is rape.

The 316 homicides reported by the Chicago Police Department were by far the most of any law enforcement agency included in the survey, a 48% increase over last year. The Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said there were 110 homicides so far this year, compared to 85 in 2015. San Jose's 25 homicides more than doubled the amount during the same period last year.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/violent-crime-report-us-cities-homicides-rapes/index.html

[Albertoo]

1. No idea what's going on in Chicago, but it's not good

Lived there a long while ago. Sad.

[NaturalHigh]

2. I went there once and don't plan to go back.

[closeupready]

14. Same here. Honestly scary seeing Detroit/Gary-level violence there.

Was never a place I thought of as a place you escape, as the proverbial Kansans or Oklahomans were said to do. Sure seems like it's becoming that kind of place now.

[cheapdate]

28. A friend of mine suggested

that to make a buck, gangs are running guns from states like Mississippi, where guns are cheap and unrestricted, to Chicago. Young men there are buying them up and fueling a self-sustaining cycle of violence.

[unc70]

3. We will hear this a lot from Trump

[NaturalHigh]

4. Probably, yes, but Clinton should address it too.

[KG]

5. hhmm. the ammosexuals told me i was safer than ever.

because guns.

[davidn3600]

9. Actually they quote the FBI who says it's in decline

FBI says crime overall has steadily declined since the early 1990s. There are tiny variations here or there. We'd have to wait and see if the current increase is just another variation or a sustained trend.

Also important to note that although crime averages for the nation has declined, some cities have seen increases...such as Chicago.

[Marengo]

16. You were told this here? Could you provide a link?

[NaturalHigh]

17. I've found that people who use the "ammosexual" insult...

are usually long on the blowhard, short on proof.

[Marengo]

30. With no link forthcoming, looks as though you are spot on.

[NickB79]

21. Rate Of U.S. Gun Violence Has Fallen Since 1993, Study Says

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2013/05/07/181998015/rate-of-u-s-gun-violence-has-fallen-since-1993-study-says

"Firearm-related homicides dropped from 18,253 homicides in 1993 to 11,101 in 2011," according to a report by the federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, "and nonfatal firearm crimes dropped from 1.5 million victimizations in 1993 to 467,300 in 2011.

There were seven gun homicides per 100,000 people in 1993, the Pew Research Center study says, which dropped to 3.6 gun deaths in 2010. The study relied in part on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49 percent lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation's population grew," according to the Pew study. "The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75 percent lower in 2011 than in 1993."

All of that is good news — but many Americans don't seem to be aware of it. In a survey, the Pew Research Center found that only 12 percent of Americans believe the gun crime rate is lower today than it was in 1993; 56 percent believe it's higher.

[Albertoo]

33. Crime went down up to 2014 (included), up in 2015

The overall effect is Obama levels of criminality below GW's

[hobbit709]

6. When the economy gets bad, things get rough.

[True Earthling]

7. Correlation?...police hiring is down due to Ferguson, Freddy Gray etc.

Baltimore Saw Steep Decline In Police Numbers As Murder Rate Soared

The number of uniformed officers in the mid-Atlantic city fell 6.1 percent last year and has shrunk by even more in the first half of this year.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/balitmore-police_us_577e049de4b01edea78c92e0

The death of Baltimore man Freddie Gray in police custody in April 2015, as well as those of other black men at the hands of police in cities including New York, Cleveland, and Ferguson, Missouri, has brought increased scrutiny to cops nationwide.

“They’re having trouble recruiting because since Ferguson there has been a lot of negative press about policing,” said John DeCarlo, an associate professor of criminal justice at the University of New Haven and former chief of the Branford, Connecticut, police department.

The sharp decline in police numbers in Baltimore comes after Gray’s death set off violent protests that put the city at the heart of a national debate over race and police use of force.

[NaturalHigh]

8. Not to mention the Baltimore police basically said "fuck it"...

and refused to crack down on crimes when those officers were indicted.

[whatthehey]

10. Sure. But down overall. Why do the Bing selection silliness?

[NaturalHigh]

11. What do you mean?

[whatthehey]

12. Why cherrypick data? Violent crime is down and has been trending thus for many years

A few cities are not US society. That's like saying the normal homeowner is a millionaire because they are in Southern California, Manhattan, etc.

[NaturalHigh]

13. Just posting an interesting story I read.

If anyone "cherrypicked" it's CNN. Blame them.

[Mc Mike]

15. Just got this bit of info from factchecking dRumpf's speech:

"Darrel Stephens, executive director of the Major Cities Chiefs Police Association, told us in an email that it was “too soon to talk about trends.” Stephens said there had been “a spike in the past year in some large cities (particularly in five or six) — something we should be concerned about to be sure but not a trend or even close to 20 years ago.”

...

We took a longer view of what has happened in some major cities, compiling the FBI city-specific data, which comes from voluntary reports from police departments, available through 2012, and 2015 numbers reported by police departments to the Major Cities Chiefs Police Association. Every city shows a big drop in the number of murders since the 1990s, and mixed movement from 2012 to 2015.





"
Excerpt ends.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/donald-trump-lies_us_57923ca1e4b00c9876cf2cb0

So Chicago, for example, is on track to hit a murder level it experienced under W bush, a couple hundred less murders than occurred during the high point it reached under Raygun/Poppy. After decades of decline, including 6 years of decline under President Obama. While the head of the Major City Chiefs association says a spike isn't a trend. Of course, the repugs weren't concerned about the murder rate when they were in power, and could do something about it.

[jmg257]

18. Good thing Chicago knows who is responsible for 70-80% of the violence.

Should be easy to fix.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/24/us/armed-with-data-chicago-police-try-to-predict-who-may-shoot-or-be-shot.html

"In a city of 2.7 million people, about 1,400 are responsible for much of the violence, Mr. Johnson said, and all of them are on what the department calls its Strategic Subject List.

So far this year, more than 70 percent of the people who have been shot in Chicago were on the list, according to the police, as were more than 80 percent of those arrested in connection with shootings.

“We are targeting the correct individuals,” Mr. Johnson said. “We just need our judicial partners and our state legislators to hold these people accountable.”



Other cities have various programs that help reduce violence by the <1% known to be responsible.

[NaturalHigh]

19. I didn't know that. Interesting.

[jmg257]

20. And not just Chicago...

Only recently, Richmond, Calif., had among America’s highest per capita rates of gun violence. In 2009, there were 47 homicides among 100,000 residents. Officials there theorized that a few bad actors caused most of the problem. As it turned out, 70 percent of their gun violence in 2008 was caused by fewer than 1 percent of the city’s residents.

This isn’t unique: in Cincinnati, less than 1 percent of the city’s population was responsible for 74 percent of homicides in 2007.

Richmond developed an innovative, controversial program: They identified the 50 people most likely to shoot someone and engaged with them, even paying them to participate.

The city provided career help, training, resume writing and health care. It asked people what they feared and helped them create plans to mitigate those fears.

Critics called it “paying gang members not to shoot people.” It was more than that. And it worked.

From 2007 to 2012, the city experienced a 61 percent reduction in homicides. It turned out that the money was nowhere near as important as people had thought — people still show up to the meetings even though no one is paying them anymore. The interventions steered potential killers onto a better path.

Through data-driven decision-making, public-private partnerships and other new methods, the program is expanding. Cities around the United States have taken note. Toledo, Ohio; Washington, D.C.; and several cities in California are considering the model.

Others are developing their own innovative programs. Chicago’s Strategic Subject List seeks information about those at risk of gun violence through who they know — actual social networks. Albany, N.Y., has seen success of the predictive accuracy of the Violent Offender Identification Directive tool.
...
Americans need to think beyond guns, and to confront the underlying social and economic problems that cause gun violence. Programs like these are proving it is possible to significantly reduce gun deaths without new gun-control measures — and without breaking the bank.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/07/14/forget-new-gun-laws-heres-what-could-really-keep-people-from-shooting-each-other/

[Eleanors38]

25. I have been following this & similar programs. Progressive policy in action at last?

[jmg257]

26. Let's hope so! Rights stay in tact, and gun violence gets reduced by 60-70%!

Could you imagine??



Win-win.

[NaturalHigh]

27. That has my vote.

[haele]

22. The summer heat. Media-influanced social polarization

There are certain types of investment to be made on an propaganda policy that promotes an uptick of general social nastiness and short-fused tribal thinking.

Monetary - in a tribal mindset, people who don't possess healthy skepticism and self confidence will become afraid of the neighbors they would normally ignore as well as the odd stranger who has enough significant difference from them and their immediate acquaintances. These people can be easily influenced to go out of their way to spend the majority of their income on safety blanket purchases and the hoarding resources they feel will protect them and their families from those people (who are usually demonized as lazy opportunists who feed off so-called normal folks). Chaos = profit for a few. And if those few started out with wealth, they can then turn chaos into -

Political investment - us-against-them simplifies a political campaign into easy to digest chunks. For all everyone talks about how important it is to look at issues and think about the future, it really is easier to deal with yes/no, black/white issues. Politicians and political backers have made the calculated risk that if you can keep a mass promotion campaign of variations on a simple (or simplistic) answer to the metaphorical world problems going constantly, thoughtful people won't have time to get out the long-term ramifications of what you are promoting until too late. More people will listen sports analogies and explanations in abstract than a graduate thesis study on why a particular set of policies and compromises could eventually lead to better (or worse) environment for a society at large.

Unusual, uncomfortable environments just makes it a bit more difficult to think clearly and for any length of time. It's far easier to develop the habit of just reacting.

Mix induced chaos with bad weather and the restrictions that come with both, you get an uptick in crime.

Haele

[Glassunion]

23. There is correlation and causation

Justin Bieber does not release an album for almost 4 years = Crime goes down each and every year in the major cities.
Justin Bieber releases an album = Crime goes up in major cities.

I report... You decide.

[NaturalHigh]

24. Interesting way of looking at it...

and a new Justin Bieber album would probably stir some anger in me too.

[jmg257]

29. Here's cause in Newark - from end of last year...

"In Newark, drug trafficking, particularly of marijuana and prescription pills, is the main cause of the uptick in gun violence, said Eugene Venable, director of the Newark Police Department. He also said the recent removal of state police, who had been stationed in the city to assist the local police, was to blame in part for the shooting increase."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/shootings-in-newark-surge-1439945824


And one thing they can do about it (similar to stories we've been posting...)...

"In parts of Newark, the code of the streets demands a violent payback for every threatening or even disrespectful gesture. This game of tit for tat helps explain why Newark, like countless other cities across the United States, has seen rising rates of gun violence.

The idea behind the Newark Violence Reduction Initiative, launched last year by Rutgers–Newark’s School of Criminal Justice with support from several private foundations, is to reconfigure the street norms behind the statistics. Using an innovative approach that has cut urban crime rates across the country, the initiative aims to reduce Newark’s gang-related shootings by 25 to 30 percent, laying the groundwork for further positive change. “Nothing happens in a city where people feel unsafe,” says Todd Clear, the school’s dean.
...
The initiative requires police and prosecutors to focus on the small number of lawbreakers responsible for most violent crimes. In Newark, that’s 1,470 people, less than 1 percent of the city’s 277,000 residents, Braga says. Data collected for the project show that, in 2009–10, this tiny fraction of Newark’s population was behind the violence in 73 crime hot spots that cover less than 9 percent of the city’s square mileage—but account for half its shootings.

To reach this group, police and prosecutors summon gang members to a neighborhood meeting and deliver a firm message: the violence must stop, or the whole group—not just the individuals involved in the latest encounter—will face intense scrutiny. “They say, ‘We’re going to crack down on everything that this group is involved in,’” Braga says.

Then community members speak, condemning violence and encouraging gang members to choose education, job training, and drug treatment. Ensuring that such social services are readily available to anyone who wants them is a key element of the initiative. "

http://www.support.rutgers.edu/s/896/Foundation/GiveStories.aspx?sid=896&gid=1&pgid=3400

[OhioChick]

31. Teen shot on Cleveland's East Side makes 80 gunshot victims so far in July

CLEVELAND, Ohio — A 15-year-old boy was shot Tuesday while walking on Cleveland's East Side.

Two others were shot Tuesday night, including a 21-year-old man who was killed. There have been at least 80 shooting victims in Cleveland since July 1 and 11 homicides.

The city had 17 homicides and 101 shootings in July 2015.

The 15-year-old boy about 10:15 p.m. was walking on East 139th Street near Kinsman Road when a dark green car pulled up next to him, according to police reports.

The person inside the car rolled down the window, pulled out a gun and shot the boy in the right leg. The boy ran to Hanini's gas station and told an employee he was shot.

More: http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2016/07/teen_shot_on_clevelands_east_s_1.html#incart_river_home

[NaturalHigh]

32. Dang - I didn't know that Cleveland was so violent.

[OhioChick]

34. Oh yeah, it's getting pretty bad here n/t